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Points Leagues Busts: Shortstops Set to Fall Short of ADP in 2022

This article will examine a few eligible shortstops for the 2022 MLB season that are being selected earlier than their Steamer projections suggest they should in points leagues and H2H points formats. RotoBaller's fantasy baseball points analyst Antonio Losada will be offering a few picks for both potential overperformers (sleepers) and shortcomers (busts) when it comes to the following baseball season at each of the six (C/1B/2B/3B/SS/OF) rosterable positions through the remainder of the offseason gearing up to training camps and the preseason. ADP figures come from point-format contests over NFBC.

In general, points leagues and H2H points formats are extremely underserved by the fantasy baseball community and fantasy baseball outlets. But in case you weren't aware, here at RotoBaller we really take pride in and specialize in points leagues. All through the preseason and MLB season, we'll be publishing rankings, tools, and analysis articles all geared for fantasy baseball points and H2H points leagues.

Before we get to the players themselves, let's quickly review points leagues and how they are different than other formats. Typically, points leagues have different league settings and scoring formats than other fantasy baseball leagues. Different MLB stats and categories are assigned different point values, and those can vary by individual league settings. Those different point buckets are then added up over the course of a scoring period or season. In many cases, hitters who walk more and strike out less are preferred for points leagues. Also, many league formats tend to give more weight to pitchers than normal as they can easily accrue points through categories like Innings Pitched. Without further ado, let's get it popping!

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Tim Anderson, Chicago White Sox

ADP: 38.1 - OVR Rk: 52 - POS Rk: 13

I was on the verge of passing on Timothy Anderson. But ultimately, I just couldn't do so. I'm even making him the post opener, just imagine! Anderson was fantastic last season, can't lie about that. Anderson is lightning fast and he just gets on base on pure quickness because he freaking beats every throw to first. Thus, the monster .385 BABIP through the last three seasons, and the .328+ figures he's posted on that front in four of five years doing it in the MLB. Oh, and of course, speed also helps in stealing bags, which is an Anderson trademark! Only, sadly, we don't care about that stuff in points leagues.

While R and RBI are not quite necessarily needed to win in this format, it's not that they are negligible either. That said, Anderson isn't quite there at those two cats, so that's my first concern when it comes to paying a top-40 pick for this man. Why? Well, if you put together the points that Anderson's going to score (as Steamer sees it) next year via R+RBI+SB, you get a total of 189. That's good! If you subtract the points he will lose via SO, though, he gets a net total of 45 points. Fortyfive, that is. Yes, you read it right.

Anderson is good, only his negatives pose a serious threat to kill nearly all of his upside, or at least a good chunk of it. The XBH is tasty with a projection of 59 including 23 HRs over the 2022 season. But once more, the ground-low walks won't help those numbers that much so we're back to the aforementioned issues. One step forward, two steps backward. Not the riskiest of players to draft because he will play a ton and then some, but he feels to me more like a low 2.00s FPPG player rather than a 2.50+ one. Boom/bust Poster Boy.

 

Javier Baez, Detroit Tigers

ADP: 57.9 - OVR Rk: 167 - POS Rk: 32

Let's gooooo!!! I have been waiting to write this section for a while, ha! Baez, the Man, the Myth, the Legend has arrived in Motown, D-Fans. Baez, he of the glorious .331 BABIP. He of the infamous .255 AVG. He of the mighty 4.8 BB%. He of the impossible 30.4 K%. We can stay dropping numbers all day, and you will keep getting baffled at them nonstop. Other than Mondesi, Baez is probably the most weird-ass player out there, let alone the one with the highest weirdness/ADP ratio ever.

Baez has yet to close a season hitting above .290. I mean, that's no shame! This is the MLB at the end of the day! Baez also has yet to strike out at a lower than 24 K% rate in his career, something that feels more improbable than the other way each passing campaign. I'm not even going to get into his walk rates because I'd faint. Just looking at his BB/K ratio (0.16) makes you puke inside your mouth a bit, doesn't it? Baez's Steamer projection of 182 SO next year feels low for what this man is surely capable of.

No player at any position other than Adolis Garcia projects to get a worse BB/K rate next year. Only seven have higher total SO projections. None of them is expected to walk fewer times than Javi. If this was some Martian, alien type of fantasy format we're discussing, maybe Baez would make for a sound pick. Sadly, it is a boring-ass classic ESPN points scoring system we're working under. Alas: don't fall for that ADP trap and let another person draft and deal with this man and his troubling ways.

 

Trevor Story, Free Agent

ADP: 47.5 - OVR Rk: 71 - POS Rk: 14

Free agent of the minute! Fade of the season! (If you ask me.) Trevor Story is, well, history in Colorado. The Rockies will assuredly move on from Story once we're back in the baseball business, and they'll do so by deploying Brendan Rodgers at the SS position. Shout out to Colorado for making the right move and the proper decision. Yessir! Story will be done the minute he's off the Rocky Mountains, at least for what's good for us fantasy GMs out in the wild.

Story is also coming off his worst campaign since 2017 after posting a good-not-great 2.43 FPPG last year in 595 PA. Maybe saying he's done is a little bit of a stretch, okay, but the underlying numbers don't pay a great picture when it comes to discipline (career 8.6 BB% and a high 25 K% in the last four seasons) and we have yet to see if the average 75 XBH in his past three full-time seasons holds when he gets to wherever ends up being his new home.

If you read Timmy's profile above, you know that speed doesn't mean that much in points leagues, so the average 21 SB per season and 20 bags stolen just last year are not a dealbreaker/dealmaker for us. And those strikeouts, man, though they went back a bit last year, they were still sky-high at a freakish 139 compared to just 53 walks for a 0.38 BB/K ratio. Sheesh.



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