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Juan's top NFL DFS value plays for the Conference Championship Round of the 2023 postseason. These sleepers are cheap on FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo daily fantasy football contests.
Welcome to the Conference Championship Games main slate edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry who find themselves in favorable matchups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Each week, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit. On this Conference Championship Games main slate of the 2023 campaign, I'm glad to report there is an abundance of value-salary players on Yahoo, FanDuel, and DraftKings.
In addition to offering multiple candidates at each position, I'll also list at least one more player to consider, along with some site-specific value plays when applicable.
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NFL DFS Bargain Bin Intro
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content.
The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article! Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more sites price a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to say a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.
Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Jared Goff, DET at SF | DK: $6,300, FD: $7,200, Yahoo: $26
The 49ers were often a brick wall to run against this past season, which has led to the Niners having faced an NFL-high 63.9 percent pass play rate since the start of the campaign. The Lions like to lean plenty on the run given their talented backfield duo, but in a game where Detroit is a seven-point underdog, it's a safe bet Goff will have to put the ball up plenty.
The Niners finished the regular season allowing 232.3 passing yards per game, and while they also garnered an impressive 22 interceptions, Goff is likely going to work his way towards a solid fantasy score through sheer volume as the Lions look to complete their Quixotic quest to get to a Super Bowl. With only four QBs on the slate, he qualifies as the one true value option, and likely the one with the lowest roster rate as well.
Jared Goff and Brock Purdy both ranked top 5 in pass yards and TDs in 2023 👀
- Goff: 4,575 pass yards (2nd), 30 pass TD (4th)
- Purdy: 4,280 pass yards (5th), 31 pass TD (3rd)📺: #DETvsSF - 6:30 PM ET on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/QX5bgmBvud— NFL (@NFL) January 23, 2024
DraftKings-Yahoo Special:
- Brock Purdy, SF vs. DET | DK: $6,400, Yahoo: $29
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Running Back DFS Value Plays
Jahmyr Gibbs, DET at SF | DK: $6,400, FD: $7,000, Yahoo: $28
Gibbs came through nicely as a value suggestion in the divisional round, and with his salaries remaining fairly stable, he's perfectly viable once again in the conference championship clash as Detroit undoubtedly looks to lean on its most explosive players. Moreover, game script is likely to eventually turn in Gibbs' favor, given the Lions' aforementioned underdog status.
The talented rookie totaled 21.4 DK/ 19.4 FD and Yahoo points against the Bucs in the divisional-round win, a performance preceded by tallies of 16.8 DK/14.8 FD and Yahoo points in the wild-card win over the Rams. The Niners were tough to run on all season, but Gibbs' speed , elite 24.2% broken tackle rate and the fact San Fran also gave up a healthy 90-625-1 receiving line to RBs keeps the talented back's prospects bright.
Jahmyr Gibbs became the youngest player in NFL history to score a go-ahead TD in the 4th quarter or OT of a playoff game (21 years, 307 days old) 🔥
(by @FanDuel) pic.twitter.com/mOeMJ94Uf1
— NFL (@NFL) January 23, 2024
DraftKings-Yahoo Special:
- Isiah Pacheco, KC at BAL | DK: $6,500, Yahoo: $31
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
Zay Flowers, BAL vs. KC | DK: $5,800, FD: $6,400, Yahoo: $23
Flowers was a bit underwhelming against the Texans in the divisional-round win with a 4-41 line on five targets, but his salaries have come down slightly and he remains one of Lamar Jackson's favorite targets. Additionally, Mark Andrews appears set to make his return from his ankle fracture in Sunday's game, which will help draw some of the talented Chiefs' defense's attention away from the rookie wideout.
The Chiefs allowed a completion rate of nearly 10 percent higher on the road (64.7) than at home (55.6), while Flowers averaged an impressive 12.7 yards per reception at home compared to 9.6 per catch when traveling. With the Ravens expected to have to remain aggressive given the opposition, Flowers is firmly in play in the do-or-die battle.
131 seconds of Zay Flowers making plays pic.twitter.com/JnfQwxhGdj
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) January 16, 2024
Jameson Williams, DET at SF | DK: $3,700, FD: $5,000, Yahoo: $15
Josh Reynolds delivered for us as a value play in the divisional round, but I'll pivot over to the speedy Williams as an intriguing and likely lower-rostered tournament play. The second-year pro posted a modest 2-35 line on four targets during the divisional-round win over the Buccaneers, yet he's seen a particularly significant salary drop on FD and remains very affordable on the other two sites.
Williams' appeal is his ability to offer a strong return on investment with just one play. That may be what it takes against a 49ers pass defense that was tough to consistently drive down the field against all season, and with Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson not one to be afraid to take chances, we could certainly see some creative and aggressive use of Williams' speed by the underdogs.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Jauan Jennings, SF vs. DET | DK: $4,600, FD: $5,300, Yahoo: $10
Tight End DFS Value Plays
Sam LaPorta, DET at SF | DK: $5,400, FD: $6,500, Yahoo: $20
LaPorta showed impressive recovery from a hyperextension and bone bruise on his knee, suiting up for the Lions' first two playoff games and posting a 12-79-1 line over 106 snaps over that span. The rookie was held out of Wednesday's practice for what presumably were maintenance reasons, and if he does take the field Sunday as expected, he could be in for a busy afternoon.
San Francisco can get after the quarterback, which could make the likes of Gibbs and LaPorta especially valuable to Goff as safety-valve options. San Francisco allowed a robust 88-827-3 line to tight ends during the regular season while tying for the eighth-most targets faced from the position. LaPorta has essentially proven matchup-proof as well, and he's a valued red-zone presence Goff could certainly turn to once again.
The Commanders should be trying to find their Sam LaPorta in this year’s draft. Adding a weapon at TE is a great way to improve an offense quickly. pic.twitter.com/vg3EifCYWs
— Grant Paulsen (@granthpaulsen) January 21, 2024
Mark Andrews, BAL vs. KC | DK: $5,000, FD: $5,700, Yahoo: $10
Going into Thursday, Andrews has three consecutive full practices under his belt dating back to last week, which certainly increases his odds of taking the field Sunday. The talented tight end is the type of player that you can feel comfortable slotting right back in upon a return from injury, provided there are no reports of a significant limit on his snaps.
The Chiefs barely allowed a 56.0 percent catch rate to wide receivers this season, but tight ends were able to cobble together an 82-759-4 line against Kansas City at nearly a 70.0 percent catch rate. Andrews posted a 45-544-6 line in just nine-plus games before his injury, and given the chemistry between him and Lamar, there's little doubt he'd be a focal point again in such a critical game.
DraftKings-FanDuel Special:
- George Kittle, SF vs. DET | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,600
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