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Scott Cullen provides his NFL DFS prop picks for September 30th, 2019 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy football advice.
After a Sunday full of upsets leads into Monday night, where the winless Pittsburgh Steelers are favored at home against the winless Cincinnati Bengals.
Despite the 0-3 start, and the loss of starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers appear to be committed to this season, having traded draft picks to acquire safety Minkah Fitzpatrick and tight end Nick Vannett. A win this week would put them within a game of the lead in the AFC North so it makes sense to go for it, but what happens if the Monday night result goes wrong?
From the Bengals’ perspective, they have been surprising offensively, moving the ball a bit, but not nearly as much as they have allowed thus far.
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CINCINNATI-PITTSBURGH
OVER/UNDERS
Andy Dalton OVER 265.5 PASSING YARDS – The Steelers have allowed 302.7 passing yards per game, ranking 30th in the league and Dalton is putting up a career-best 326.3 passing yards per game. The Bengals are also underdogs who figure that they will need to throw more to catch up or at least keep pace.
Mason Rudolph UNDER 240.5 PASSING YARDS – This is a big number for the new Steelers starter. The Bengals have allowed an average of 237.7 passing yards per game and Rudolph passed for 174 yards at San Francisco in his first start last week. Is that enough to believe that Rudolph is good for more than 240 yards this week?
Tyler Boyd OVER 16.5 FANTASY POINTS – With A.J. Green still out of the Bengals’ lineup, Boyd is seeing a massive uptick in targets and has 24 catches on 33 targets through the first three weeks. His average game of eight catches for 83 yards would count as 16.3 fantasy points but Boyd has not scored a single touchdown this season and that would certainly shift the calculation.
James Conner OVER 16.5 FANTASY POINTS – Last season, Conner averaged more than 113 yards from scrimmage per game, with 4.2 receptions and one touchdown per game. Now this season has been a different story, with Conner averaging 55.7 yards and 3.7 receptions per game. On one hand he’s simply due for better results but, on the other hand, the Bengals might be the cure for what ails Conner. Cincinnati has allowed 168.7 rushing yards per game, the only team other than the Miami Dolphins to surrender more than 150 rushing yards per game.
RAPID FIRE
Tyler Boyd +4.5 receiving yards vs. JuJu Smith-Schuster – Although Smith-Schuster had a huge year in 2018, with 111 catches for 1,426 yards, he hasn’t been a big factor early in this season, averaging 4.7 catches and 81 receiving yards per game, so it’s difficult to forecast a breakout when the Steelers have tended to be extra conservative with Rudolph at quarterback.
James Conner -5.5 rushing yards vs. Joe Mixon – This is a tale of two very productive running backs from 2018 who have don’t precious little in 2019. Conner has averaged 32.3 rushing yards per game, which is practically nothing for a starting running back, and yet it’s more than Mixon, who has put up 29.0 rushing yards per game through three weeks. The Steelers are favored and if they have the lead that should offer more chances for Conner to run out the clock so this relatively small margin is a worthwhile play.
John Ross -2.5 fantasy points vs. Diontae Johnson – One of the fastest players in the league, Ross was a force in the first two weeks before getting kept under wraps against the Bills in Week Three. Johnson, a third-round pick out of Toledo, is a rookie who has started to emerge a bit, catching three passes for 52 yards at San Francisco in Week Three so he has some promise, but Ross seems a little more established in the Bengals’ offense.
