Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

Early Look at Overachievers and Sleepers in Fantasy Baseball


By Keith Allison from Owings Mills, USA [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Okay, so here we are strolling into the middle of Week 3 of the fantasy season and most everyday players are at least 50 at-bats into their season. Right about now is when we start wondering if we wasted early picks on duds, if our reaches were the byproduct of over-exuberant man-crushes, or if our late-round sleepers were simply ingenious.

I am going to profile some players who are either outproducing their ADP or failing to live up to it,  and occasionally, I'll compare one player with a high ADP to a cheaper alternative who is producing similarly or at a higher level currently. I will also provide a prediction as to whether or not the profiled player's current production will continue for better or worse, or if instead he'll regress back to career norms.

 

Playing with House Money: 2 ADP Overachievers

 

Angel Pagan, SF - OF

2014 ADP: 231

Current Rank: 42  

From 2010 -2012 between the Mets and Giants, Pagan swiped 98 bases, averaging 32.6 SB per season over that three-year span. A hamstring injury put a big damper on Pagan's 2013 campaign, during which he totaled a mere nine steals over 71 games. Now healthy, Pagan has come out of the gates scorching hot, hitting .383 with 10 RBI and 2 SB. More interesting tidbits on Pagan: his average with men on base is over .400, and even better yet, his average with RISP jumps up close to .450. Some caveats, though: he is slightly injury prone and is now 32 years of age.

Prediction: He will obviously come down to Earth, as his near .400 BA is not sustainable, however his K% and BB% are currently on par with career averages. He could easily surpass his 2014 ADP and be a great value pick if he can swipe 30+ bases leading off for the Gigantes.

 

Charlie Blackmon, COL - OF

2014 ADP: 363 

Current Rank: 17

Widely undrafted coming into 2014 due to a crowded Colorado outfield coming out of spring training, the 27-year-old Blackmon has started the season sporting a whopping .442 average with a homer, 9 RBI and 4 SB. After surprisingly amassing 258 plate appearances in 2013, during which he hit .309 with 6 bombs and 7 SB, Blackmon has separated himself from his centerfield platoon mates. Possessing minimal power with plus speed, Blackmon profiles as a poor man's Adam Eaton.

Prediction: Blackmon is playing over his head, however with nearly everyday at-bats, he has a chance to showcase his 15/15 power speed combo. His walk rate and strikeout rate both sit at 4% currently, and the BA is not sustainable. If he continues to see at-bats, though, he very well could be a valuable #4 or #5 OF in deep roto leagues.

 

You're killin me Smalls! Two ADP Underachievers, AKA Buy Lows, AKA Sleepers

 

Edwin Encarnacion, 3B - TOR

2014 ADP: 14

Current Rank: 762

E5 has been one of the top run producers in baseball since 2010, averaging 39 homers and and 107 RBI over the two-year span. Unfortunately, owners who spent a second-round pick on the slugger have been given little to show for their investment thus far. Encarnacion is currently sporting a .241 BA with a goose egg in the home run column and a dainty 3 RBI through 50 at bats. A wrist injury coming into 2014 may be partially to blame for his underwhelming start, and owners have to be concerned. He's striking out over 21.8% of the time, which is certainly worrisome, but his .120 ISO is bound to come up to around .200 where it belongs.

Prediction: The power will come for E5. His average is never a strong point, but you can bank on a rebound. Heck, if frustrated owners are willing to deal him on the cheap, you should jump all over it.

 

By Keith Allison from Owings Mills, USA [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia CommonsHomer Bailey, CIN - SP

2014 ADP: 102

Current Rank: 1228 ouch!

There's not much to say about Homer Bailey, except that he's living up to his first name in the early going. His HR/FB rate is sitting at a ridiculous 60.0%. Yeah, that's not made up. Some home run derby pitchers have posted better numbers. Of the 10 fly balls he's given up, 6 have left the yard. There is quite possibly a simple explanation to his early struggles. He got a late start in spring training and his out pitch, the curveball, is getting slaughtered. Professional hitters will exploit the weaknesses of a pitcher who is a few weeks behind. Through 14.1 IP, Bailey's ERA is enormous at 8.16 and his WHIP sits north of 2.0, but his K% is promisingly up at 10.67%.

Prediction: Bailey will find his groove and revert back to being a top performing starter. The only question is how long will owners have to wait? I would advise keeping him in your lineup, because he could flip the switch at any time. Once he finds the handle on his off-speed offerings, he will once again be a roto beast. Send offers to his owner and hope he or she has a moment of weakness.

 

Look what I can do! Cheap Copycats

 

Jose Abreu, CHW - 1B

ADP: 101

Current stats: ..217/..324/.500, 4 HR, 14 RBI

Abreu was a shot in the dark on draft day but he is outproducing the likes of Chris Davis, Prince Fielder, Joey Votto and aforementioned Edwin Encarnacion. If you were the owner who took the plunge and put fantasy dollars down on this Cuban crusher you are one happy hombre. He looks like a slugger primed to power up in his rookie campaign and his BA should rise in no time.

 

More Recent Articles

 

Fantasy Football Disaster Recovery: Cooper Kupp

Welcome to Disaster Recovery, where each week I'll examine why your studs played like duds. This isn't a place to find out why you should have sat a player for somebody else on your bench. Disaster Recovery is here to examine the guys who you didn't think twice about starting and to help you decide if you should... Read More


The Tape Tells All - Christian Kirk Fantasy Analysis

Welcome to another edition of "The Tape Tells All," where I break down some film of an NFL's player performance and try to draw some fantasy football conclusions from that film. This week, I'm looking at Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Christian Kirk, who broke out in Week 10, catching three touchdowns. Kirk seems to have... Read More


Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers - Darius Slayton, Christian Kirk, Kareem Hunt

Whether due to their own play, the play of others, or injuries, players' stock increases and decreases on a weekly basis. Perhaps more than any other, the NFL is a league that experiences ups and downs at a rapid pace. With only 16 games, there’s little room for error and seemingly endless opportunities for improvement.... Read More


FAAB Bidding - Week 11 Waiver Wire Targets

Assisting our famous waiver wire pickups list, and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB). As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free agent players will... Read More


Week 11 Waiver Wire Pickups & Adds

It's crunch time, with precious few games left before the fantasy regular season ends. There aren't many new names emerging on the waiver wire at this juncture but the RB situations in Atlanta and Detroit bear watching, while the Jets passing game has shown signs of life. No, really. Each week, we will advise you... Read More


Deeper League Free Agent Pickups for Week 11

Rotoballers, if you're not active on the waiver wire this time of year, there are only two reasonable explanations: 1) You're sitting at 3-7 (or worse) and don't find it enjoyable to play spoiler to your league mates, or 2) You're 8-2 (or better) and have nothing but matchup-proof studs on your starting lineup and... Read More


Week 11 Defense (DEF) Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

Below are RotoBaller's Week 11 defense tiers and rankings, or which defenses to stream, start and target off the waiver wire for Week 11 of the NFL and fantasy football season. In case you missed it, this is our seventh year now writing this weekly column. Our weekly tiered defense rankings are a guide to making waiver... Read More


Week 11 Kicker Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

It's Week 11, and we're getting closer and closer to the fantasy football playoffs. The consistent options are getting more and more clear, especially at the kicking position. We're also going to start dealing with everyone's favorite factor, which is inclement weather, especially up north. The margin for error in these weeks is slim, and... Read More


Week 10 Surprises? We Must Overreact Immediately!

In Week 10, Christian Kirk, Darius Slayton, Tyreek Hill, and Michael Thomas all had beatable cornerback matchups and finished as the top-four wide receivers in PPR scoring. At running back, Derrick Henry exploited a poor Chiefs run defense and rumbled for 188 yards and two touchdowns, finishing as the No. 1 running back on the week. Ronald... Read More


The Cut List - Players on the Chopping Block (Week 11)

This is your weekly list of players to drop. I will do my best to limit this list to injured players and players you might consider holding. If you roster pure handcuffs or backups, obviously you can let them go at any time. The players on this list will, ideally, be guys that aren't clearly... Read More


Running Back Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 11

The regular season continues to advance at a relentless pace as we have now entered the planning process for Week 11. Some of you are in the favorable position of only needing slight modifications to rosters that are destined to enter the fantasy playoffs. But many of you are still searching for the most effective... Read More


Wide Receiver Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 11

Did you survive the terrible, no good, very bad six-team bye week? If so, welcome to the other side, when roster building gets slightly easier going forward. If not, I'm sorry, but you still have time to get things back on the right path. Let's talk about some wide receivers who might be able to... Read More


Week 11 Tight End Waiver Wire Picks and Streamers

If your fantasy football squad is still in the playoff hunt heading into Week 11, then congratulations on not being the Pat Shurmur or Freddie Kitchens of your league. Fantasy football players will have to live without New York’s Evan Engram, Green Bay’s Jimmy Graham and Tennessee’s Jonnu Smith as their teams are on bye.... Read More


Quarterback Waiver Wire Pickups and Streamers - Week 11

We've got plenty to unpack at the quarterback position following an exciting Week 10. While no major injuries occurred in game, the revelation of Matthew Stafford's back injury was quite a surprise and left some owners scrambling just before lineups locked. So the year of the backup continued this week, as 16 of the 32... Read More


Waiver Wire Express - Week 11 Lightning Round

With 10 weeks down and only a few more weeks of the fantasy regular season to go, your vision for the playoffs should be coming into focus. The Giants, Packers, Seahawks and Titans are on bye -- with the Cardinals, Chargers, Chiefs and Vikings in Week 12 to round out the weekly vacations. To help... Read More