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Thursday Night Football, Week 7 edition, features the Jacksonville Jaguars visiting the New Orleans Saints, which means we might be getting a matchup between the best teams of the AFC South and the NFC South. Or we might not. Who can really say with these two mediocre divisions which feature just one team among their eight that has at least four wins?
Both the Jaguars and the Saints have their flaws and question marks heading into Thursday night, but both also offer plenty of fantasy options for this island game.
I will be bringing you Thursday Night Football analysis all year long, focusing on who to definitely start, who is on the fence, and who should find the bench. Let's dive into this seventh Thursday Night matchup of the 2023 season.
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Jacksonville Jaguars @ New Orleans Saints - 8:15 pm ET
Notable Injuries:
- Trevor Lawrence (QB, JAC) - Knee - Questionable
- Zay Jones (WR, JAC) - Knee - OUT
- Juwan Johnson (TE, NOS) - Quad - OUT
- Chris Olave (WR, NOS) - Toe - No Injury Designation
The Jaguars-Saints Matchup
The competitiveness and betting line in this Jaguars-Saints game all comes down to the health of Trevor Lawrence's knee. He suffered a knee sprain in the win over Indianapolis in Week 6 and is listed as Questionable for Week 7. If Lawrence can not go, this high-powered Jaguars offense downshifts into something a lot less appealing for the game environment and for fantasy managers.
If Lawrence does not suit up, journeyman C.J. Beathard will get the start, which might prop up the value of Travis Etienne, but severely hurt the prospects for Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and any other Jaguars pass-catcher. The Jaguars did sign Nathan Rourke off the practice squad. That could just be for insurance as a third quarterback in the game or it could be a sign that things are serious with Lawrence. For what it's worth, he told Adam Schefter that he is "optimistic" that he can play this week, but we will only know closer to game time.
In terms of matchup, both teams are in the top half of the league when it comes to the fewest yards allowed per rush attempt, so there is mild concern about Alvin Kamara and Etienne. But truthfully they will both have so much volume it's likely not going to matter. The Jaguars also have allowed the third-most receptions to running backs this year, which feeds right into Alvin Kamara's strengths.
Both teams are middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and opponents' yards per pass attempt. The relative neutrality of the opposing sides of the ball is what is driving the one-point spread until we know more about Lawrence's knee.
Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Trevor Lawrence (QB, JAC)
After a string of three finishes between QB16 and QB19, Lawrence finally broke through with a QB11 finish against the Colts last week. He threw two touchdowns for the first time since Week 1 and continued a long streak of supplementing his passing with a decent rushing day. Lawrence is averaging over 24 rushing yards per game this year, which adds a nice floor to his passing numbers. Lawrence continues to improve as a deep passer, ranking eighth in deep ball completion percentage this year (45%), something he will look to exploit with New Orleans allowing almost 10 yards per pass completion this season.
Travis Etienne (RB, JAC)
No matter who lines up under center for Jacksonville in this game, Etienne is a fantastic play. He is routinely playing more than 80% of the snaps and now averages well over 20 touches per game. Tank Bigsby is an afterthought at this point. Etienne is number one overall in total carries this year and is also top-ten among running backs in targets, receptions, receiving yards, rushing yards, touchdowns, and yards created. In a game where workhorse backs are few and far between, Etienne has become one of the safest plays around.
Alvin Kamara (RB, NOS)
Kamara has been a top-12 running back in each of the three games he has played since his suspension. Most of the production is thanks to the 35 targets he has in three games but he also is averaging 17 rush attempts per contest as well. Even though the Jaguars haven't allowed a receiving touchdown to a running back yet, they are top-10 in receptions and receiving yards allowed.
Chris Olave (WR, NOS)
Chris Olave may only have one touchdown this season, but his usage and production show that he should actually have several more. He is clearly the alpha receiver now in the New Orleans offense and is number one at the position in deep targets, number two in air yards, number 10 in routes run, and number 11 in targets. Another stat where he leads the position is probably not one he is excited about - he is tops among receivers in unrealized air yards (493 yards). He just needs a couple of things to break his way in his upcoming games and the scores and massive fantasy days are going to start piling up.
Solid Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Christian Kirk (WR, JAC)
These next three players are all directly correlated to Trevor Lawrence's health for Thursday. I can't strongly recommend any of them individually with C.J. Beathard, but each has had outstanding moments in this offense. Kirk now leads this team in targets with 49 and hasn't seen less than six since Week 1. He has either a touchdown or 75 yards in three straight games and leads the team in target share with 23.6%.
Calvin Ridley (WR, JAC)
It has been a wild up-and-down year for Ridley and he has finished between WR6 and WR77 on the week over his first games. Still, he is getting targets and only has one game this season with fewer than seven. Assuming Zay Jones misses this game again, I have Ridley plugged in as a solid WR2/3 option against New Orleans.
Evan Engram (TE, JAC)
After a string of four straight games with a top-10 finish, Evan Engram has been outside the top 12 tight ends of the week for two games. But like his teammates, it's not for a lack of targets or usage. It's the fact that in Weeks 5-6 Travis Etienne had seven red zone opportunities and the whole rest of the team combined for eight. Engram will get his yards and targets, but he is now a back-end TE1 and no longer a top-six option at the position for me.
Michael Thomas (WR, JAC)
Michael Thomas has been getting the targets this season (fewer than seven in just one game this year), but it's not translating to fantasy points. He still has yet to score 10 points in half-PPR formats and doesn't have a touchdown this year. Those could both change if the Jaguars get up big and Derek Carr has to throw most of the second half, but Kamara and Olave seem to be getting all the high-leverage work with their 15 combined red zone opportunities so far this season.
Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups
Derek Carr (QB, NOS)
With options like Brock Purdy at Minnesota, Geno Smith playing Arizona, and Sam Howell against the Giants, Derek Carr is not coming near the quarterback streaming options for me this week. Carr only has one finish better than QB14 on the year and that came last week because he threw 50 times for 353 yards. I don't see that happening this week, especially if Lawrence is out, so he is not making my rosters this week.
Rashid Shaheed (RB, NOS)
Shaheed was fantastic in terms of overall output in Week 6, giving us 85 yards and a touchdown. But he only caught 33% of his targets and remains a very volatile player for fantasy purposes. Sunday was just his second game of the season above a 58% snap rate and just his second game over 63 yards this year. He has the opportunity to break a big play at any time (and Jacksonville is 24th in yards per completion to opponents), but Shaheed is a flex play that you hope catches one long touchdown.
Taysom Hill (TE, NOS)
The Jaguars have not been a great team against tight ends this season, allowing top-ten numbers in both receptions and yards. But Taysom Hill is not used like a traditional tight end, and you never know what to expect from game to game. But if you're looking for a reason to start Hill, he saw his highest snap share of the season last week (60%) and he did catch seven passes to go along with one rush attempt.
Zay Jones (WR, JAC)
Zay Jones has been injured for multiple weeks and has not practiced as of Wednesday afternoon. The Jaguars are likely holding him out through this short week with the hopes of ramping him up for the next game.
Kirksey’s Picks
Current Spread: NOS -1, Total: 40.0
Certainly, when we know more about Trevor Lawrence I will revise this pick and any line movement on the spread or the total. If Trevor Lawrence plays, I have to believe Jacksonville thinks he is healthy. I don't see a shootout materializing here, but I do see the weapons of Jacksonville being able to overcome the pressure from the New Orleans defense, even on the road.
Trevor Lawrence has been taking a step up the last few weeks, and if he plays in this game, I have full confidence the Jaguars will keep their win streak going.
Picks: JAC +1, UNDER 40
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