Horse For The Course: PGA DFS (Course History) - AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

February 4, 2020

Joe Nicely digs into his Horse for the Course for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, an under the radar PGA DFS selection for this week's DraftKings tournament.

Hello again PGA family and thanks for joining me here at RotoBaller! The Waste Management Phoenix Open is a fun event that always seems to produce an exciting finish. This year was no different, as two of our DFS favorites battled it out throughout the day. The tournament was Tony Finau's to lose and unfortunately that's exactly what happened, with Webb Simpson draining some incredibly clutch putts down the stretch and prevailing in a playoff. Huge win for Webb. Tough-luck loss for Finau.

While neither Webb nor Tony were listed in last week's HFTC, we didn't do too bad, as every player highlighted in last week's article made the cut at TPC Scottsdale! Let's keep the momentum going this week as the PGA Tour heads back one of its most classic venues.

Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history, for my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Overview

After a fun week in Phoenix, the PGA Tour heads back to California for the long-running AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. After two-straight weeks of very strong fields at the Farmers and Waste Management, we're definitely taking a step down when considering the quality of this AT&T field. We can probably attribute the lack of star power to this week's Pro-Am format, which forces the pros in the field to pair up with amateurs and can often lead to mind-numbingly long rounds. It's not for everyone, as evidenced by the lack of elite golfers that are scheduled to tee it up this week.

One player that will be in attendance is the AT&T defending champ Phil Mickelson. 'Lefty' outlasted Paul Casey last year and proved that age is nothing but a number. Unfortunately, it was one of the last times we've seen quality golf out of Phil until the 49-year-old popped at the Saudi International last week, which means he heads to one of his favorite venues in what qualifies as trending form for him. This event isn't totally devoid of big guns, as Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, Patrick Cantlay, and last year's runner-up Paul Casey are set to tee it up at Pebble. In addition to the Pro-Am format, we will also be faced with a three-course rotation this week (two of which don't have Shot Tracker), which means a 54-hole cut similar to what we saw a few weeks ago at the American Express. All these variables make both projecting and tracking this tournament difficult and a little frustrating.

You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week.

The Course: Pebble Beach Golf Links

Par 72 - 6,816 Yards, Greens: Poa

As mentioned in the intro, we are dealing with three different courses this week. In addition to Pebble, which players will play once in the first three rounds and again in the final round, Spyglass Hill (6,953 yds/Par-72/Poa) and Monterey Peninsula's Shore Course (6,958 yds/Par-71/Poa) will also be in the rotation. All three are ruggedly beautiful, with the famous Pebble Beach being the crown jewel.

All three courses measure less than 7,000 yards, so distance isn't a necessity this week. Players will need to find fairways and greens, but that can be more difficult than it sounds in often unpredictable conditions. All three of these courses are smack-dab on the Monterrey Peninsula coast and huge changes in weather can, and often does, influence the outcome of this tournament.

So...we are forced to deal with a lot of unpredictable variables this week. The course a player draws for each different day and the amount of wind during their rounds on those different courses is something that is unfortunately out of our hands. This event is famously tough on first-timers, so I'm targeting players with plenty of AT&T experience that are sharp on approach shots.

The Horse

Dustin Johnson (DraftKings - $11,600)

Notable Course History: Two Wins & Two Runner-Up Finishes

DJ looms large in this event. He's logged two wins and two runner-up finishes in 12 career starts at Pebble Beach, and ranks second in all-time tournament earnings. You never need an excuse to roster DJ, but just in case you do, he heads to California in sharp form on the heels of a runner-up finish at the Saudi International last week and appears to be fully healthy after an offseason surgical procedure to repair cartilage in his knee.

My one concern here is the travel issue. Johnson finished a lackluster T45 in last year's AT&T after winning the Saudi International, so I am a little bit worried as to how playing these events in consecutive weeks will effect him. However, DJ is without a doubt the class of this rather weak field and has proven himself to be something of the "anti-Koepka" throughout his career by routinely winning "regular" PGA Tour events in which he's the favorite. Overall there's a lot to love here...he's rounding into form, is the best player in the field, and has a dominant track record in this event.

The Ponies

Paul Casey (DraftKings - $10,500)

Notable Course History: 2nd ('19), T8 ('18)

Paul Casey doesn't have an extensive history at Pebble Beach, but has quickly shown an affinity for the legendary track. The Englishman was oh-so-close in last year's AT&T - finishing second to Phil Mickelson - and also recorded a T8 in 2018. Casey is easing into 2020 and has only made a couple of starts this year, a T19 at the Sentry TOC and a T21 at the American Express.

The form doesn't scream out at us, but we know what we're getting with Casey...a great ballstriker that will consistently find fairways and greens. He also possesses the perfect personality to handle the pro-am aspect of this tournament.

Jason Day (DraftKings - $10,300)

Notable Course History: T4 ('19), T2 ('18), T5 ('17), T11 ('16), T4 ('15)

I'm always at something of a loss for words when writing up Jason Day. If you follow golf closely, then you know there are some risks that are just part of the deal when rostering Day in DFS, as we're always looking over our shoulders for some flukey injury or WD from him. So while I never feel absolutely peachy about locking in the Aussie, this is one of the events on the schedule when I feel he without a doubt deserves our consideration.

Day has been truly dominant in this event and has done pretty much everything except actually win it. He has FOUR top-five finishes in the AT&T in his last five starts and he looked surprisingly sharp in what was supposed to be a knock-the-rust off outing at the Farmers a couple of weeks ago.

Max Homa (DraftKings - $8,300)

Notable Course History: T10 ('19), MC ('17), T29 ('15)

There are players in this field with more extensive Pebble Beach experience than Max Homa, but Homa brings an intriguing blend of trending form and previous AT&T success to the table. The 2019 Wells Fargo champion heads to Pebble Beach on the heels of T6 finish at the Waste Management, his second top-10 in as many weeks and third in three months.

After suffering a bit of "victory hangover" after his win at Quail Hollow last season, Homa has gotten things back on track over the last several months and he's ran off five straight made cuts since November. He gains an average of .097 strokes putting on Poa and it is by far his best surface. The California native should feel right at home in the AT&T this week.

Scott Stallings (DraftKings - $7,600)

Notable Course History: 3rd ('19), 7th ('18), T14 ('17)

A little shoutout for my East Tennessee homeboy Scott Stallings this week. The Oak Ridge native isn’t a player that’s consistently on our radar, but my Spidey Sense starts tingling when he’s on the West Coast. This rings especially true when Stallings heads to the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, a tournament where he’s been razor sharp over the last three years.

He logged a T14 in 2017, a seventh-place finish in 2018 and topped those with a solo-third last year. Since the 2019-20 season started at Greenbrier in September, Stallings has gained strokes T2G in nine of 10 tournaments and made the cut in eight of 10. He’s a Poa specialist and has demonstrated that he’s very comfortable on this trio of courses.

More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks