X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Bills vs. Chiefs Start 'Em, Sit 'Em (AFC Championship) - Josh Allen, Isiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt, Khalil Shakir, Xavier Worthy, James Cook, Travis Kelce

Five Fantasy Football Overvalued Quarterbacks

Fantasy football start em, sit em lineups advice for the Bills vs. Chiefs on Sunday, January 26 for the AFC Championship (2025). NFL matchups analysis and starts/sits.

There are only three NFL games remaining, but they all are sure to include dramatic finishes and blockbuster matchups. Below you can read our matchups analysis article for the Bills vs. Chiefs game to help make any fantasy lineup decisions for whatever contest, league, or tournament you are participating in.

It's time for another edition of the modern-day Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning rivalry! Josh Allen looks to finally get over the hump by defeating Patrick Mahomes and advancing to his first career Super Bowl. Meanwhile, Kansas City is looking to be the first team to ever win three titles in a row, and it starts with beating Buffalo one more time in the postseason.

Read our fantasy football breakdowns for this game -- the recommended starts, sits, and matchups we love heading into the AFC Championship. Below, you'll see the fantasy football outlooks for key players like Josh Allen, Isiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt, Khalil Shakir, Xavier Worthy, James Cook, Travis Kelce, and more.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs

Time: Sunday 6:30 PM ET

Spread: Chiefs -1.5

Projected Point Total: 48.5

 

Matchups We Love

RB Isiah Pacheco 

Although Isiah Pacheco has not looked great since returning from injury, he does have a great matchup in the AFC Championship game against the Bills. Buffalo allowed the third-most fantasy to opposing running backs in the regular season, and Derrick Henry and Justice Hill averaged 6.1 yards per carry on the ground against this front seven in the Divisional Round. As a result, Pacheco can be a value play in some DFS contests this week. Just be careful trusting him, as he played only 31% of the team's offensive snaps in last week's win.

RB Kareem Hunt

Kareem Hunt will be a better fantasy option than Pacheco in the AFC Conference Championship game against the Bills. Hunt played 47% of the team's offensive snaps last week and scored a touchdown for the third straight game (not counting the Week 18 contest when most starters sat out).


Therefore, Hunt will have some potential in DFS contests this weekend. He has played over 42% of the team's offensive snaps in three consecutive games and now will face a Bills defense that allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs in the regular season.

WR Khalil Shakir 

Khalil Shakir remains Josh Allen's go-to target in the passing game. He has caught six passes in both playoff games while scoring above 12 PPR fantasy points in both contests. Now, he has a great matchup against the Chiefs this weekend.

Shakir caught eight passes for 70 yards the last time he faced this Kansas City secondary back in Week 11, and this Chiefs defense allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to slot wideouts over the final six weeks of the regular season. As a result, the Bills playmaker will be one of the best wide receiver plays of the entire weekend.

TE Dalton Kincaid

Dalton Kincaid has not been a strong fantasy option for most of the year. He has scored in double figures in PPR formats just three times during the 2024-25 season and only caught one pass for 11 yards last week. 

However, he can be a great value play in some contests this weekend. The Chiefs allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends in the regular season, and Dalton Schultz scored 10.3 PPR fantasy points last week against them in the Divisional Round. That makes Kincaid a potential tight end option in a nice matchup.

 

Matchups We Hate

RB James Cook 

James Cook has seen a ton of opportunities in the first two rounds of the playoffs. He has totaled 43 touches in those two games while scoring at least 11 PPR fantasy points in both contests. But he'll be a riskier option this weekend against a tough Chiefs defense.

Kansas City allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs in the regular season, and Cook only managed 20 rush yards against the Chiefs back in Week 11. Although the third-year back scored two touchdowns in that game, he could struggle once again on the ground in the AFC Championship.


RB Ray Davis

Although Ray Davis scored a touchdown last week against the Ravens, he is not a strong fantasy start in the AFC Championship game. He has only seen a combined 13 snaps in the first two rounds of the NFL playoffs and is the clear RB3 in this Buffalo backfield. So, he should be avoided against a tough Chiefs defense.

WR Amari Cooper 

Rolling out Amari Cooper in any DFS contest this weekend is extremely risky. Cooper did not catch any passes in last week's win and only has six receptions across the past five games. On top of that, he could see Trent McDuffie in coverage for parts of this game. McDuffie ranks 12th in yards per reception allowed this season.

 

Other Matchups

QB Josh Allen

Josh Allen will face the Chiefs for the fourth time in the playoffs on Sunday and will remain a strong fantasy quarterback option this weekend. Allen has scored above 27 fantasy points in each of his previous three meetings against Kansas City in the playoffs, including 30 fantasy points in last year's Divisional Round loss.

Although Allen didn't have the best passing numbers against the Ravens last week, look for the All-Pro quarterback to bounce back in a big way in the AFC Championship. He also scored 24.98 fantasy points against the Chiefs earlier this year.


QB Patrick Mahomes 

Patrick Mahomes has not been the best fantasy quarterback option this season. However, he could be a play in most contests this weekend. Mahomes always shows up for these big games and has averaged 28 fantasy points in his three playoff meetings against the Bills. Buffalo's secondary has also allowed over 18 fantasy points to the position in five of the past seven games.

RB Ty Johnson 

If you are looking for a potential value play in DFS contests this weekend, Ty Johnson could be a sneaky option. He remains a major part of this Bills offense and has played at least 30% of the team's offensive snaps in six straight games, excluding Week 18 when most players sat out. 

Although he only saw six opportunities in last week's win, he did score 15 PPR fantasy points in the Wild Card Round against the Broncos. So, he has the potential to score in double figures in this game, given his presence in the passing game. 

WR Keon Coleman 

Keon Coleman is another Bills wide receiver who might be hard to trust in the AFC Championship game against the Chiefs. Coleman has caught just two passes combined in the first two rounds of the NFL playoffs, and the rookie hasn't caught more than three passes in a game since Week 8. While he'll come in as a lower value in DFS contests, it's best to probably look elsewhere.

WR Curtis Samuel 

Curtis Samuel will be a risker fantasy play this weekend against the Chiefs. Samuel has played under 40% of the team's offensive snaps in both playoff games and only caught two passes for nine yards in last week's win. 

Samuel, though, did have his best game of the season against the Chiefs back in Week 11. He caught five passes for 58 yards and one touchdown in that game. Given that the Chiefs allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to slot wideouts in the final six weeks of the regular season, the Bills wideout could be a dart-throw in DFS contests. 

WR Xavier Worthy 

Xavier Worthy will be a solid play against the Bills. He has caught at least five passes in six straight games and appears to be Patrick Mahomes' favorite wideout to go to in the passing game. Given Worthy's speed and big-play potential, he will be a top wide receiver option in most contests this weekend.


WR Marquise Brown 

Marquise Brown did not catch a pass in last week's Divisional Round, but it was encouraging to see him play a season-high 67% of the team's offensive snaps. As a result, Brown can be a sneaky play in most contests this weekend. He has totaled at least 45 receiving yards in two of his three games this season.

Brown will also have a solid matchup in the slot against Taron Johnson. Brown has played 48% of his snaps in the slot, and Johnson ranks 99th in catch rate allowed and 84th in passer rating allowed this season.

WR DeAndre Hopkins 

DeAndre Hopkins should not be a preferred option for most in DFS contests this week. Hopkins only played 31% of the team's offensive snaps last week and has totaled under 8.7 PPR fantasy points in four straight games.

While the veteran could show out on Sunday, his recent usage in the passing game makes him harder to trust. Hopkins has totaled less than 40 receiving yards in seven of his last eight games.

TE Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce had another dominating playoff performance last week, catching seven passes for 117 yards and one touchdown. The veteran tight end has now scored above 18 PPR fantasy points in 13 of his past 14 playoff games. As a result, he'll remain a strong tight end option this weekend against the Bills.

Kelce might have only scored 2.8 PPR fantasy points against the Bills the last time he faced them back in Week 11, but he always seems to show up when it's the playoffs. Buffalo also allowed nine catches for 134 yards and one touchdown to Baltimore tight ends a week ago in the Divisional Round.

 

Notable Fantasy-Relevant Injuries

  • None


Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Los Angeles Clippers

Nicolas Batum Staying with Clippers
Jurickson Profar

to Return on Wednesday
Jordan Clarkson

Jazz Finalize Contract Buyout for Jordan Clarkson
Aldrich Potgieter

Wins Rocket Mortgage Classic
Thorbjorn Olesen

Finishes Tied for 41st at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Denny McCarthy

Finishes Tied For 12th at Travelers Championship
Chris Kirk

Finishes Tied For Second at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Michael Kim

Finishes Tied for 26th at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Max Homa

Misses Cut at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Lucas Glover

Finishes Tied For Ninth at Travelers Championship
PGA

Nico Echavarria Finishes Tied For Sixth at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Brooklyn Nets

Day'Ron Sharpe Staying with Nets
Colby Thomas

Called Up From Triple-A
Shea Langeliers

A's Reinstate Shea Langeliers From Injured List
Pittsburgh Steelers

Rumors Still Swirling Around Potential T.J. Watt Trade
Jalen Williams

will Undergo Surgery on Right Wrist
Bryce Harper

Activated and Starting on Monday
Deandre Ayton

Finalizing Contract Buyout with Portland
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Lands on Injured List With Fractured Ribs
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Tyler Boyd

Interested in Playing for Steelers
Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Now Looking to Acquire a Tight End
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
L'Jarius Sneed

Says he's Healthy
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Minkah Fitzpatrick

Heading Back to Miami
Jonnu Smith

Shipped to Pittsburgh
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
Jalen Ramsey

Steelers Acquiring Jalen Ramsey
Kerry Carpenter

Leaves Game with Apparent Hamstring Injury
Brooklyn Nets

Day'Ron Sharpe Heads to Free Agency
Santi Aldama

Receives Qualifying Offer
Orlando Magic

Moritz Wagner has Team Option Declined
Jabari Smith Jr.

Signs Massive Extension
Jusuf Nurkić

Hornets Trading Jusuf Nurkic to Utah
Collin Sexton

Heading to Charlotte
Cam Thomas

Set for Restricted Free Agency
Milwaukee Bucks

Bobby Portis Staying in Milwaukee
Jonas Brodin

Expected to Miss Start of Next Season
TB

Conor Sheary Placed on Waivers for Contract Termination
Los Angeles Clippers

James Harden, Clippers Agree on a New Contract
Dante Fabbro

Stays with Blue Jackets on Four-Year Deal
Joel Hofer

Commits to Blues for Two More Years
Kevin Bahl

Signs Long-Term Extension with Flames
Oneil Cruz

Smacks Two Homers
Jordan Spence

Traded to Ottawa
Petr Mrazek

Heads to Anaheim
John Gibson

Red Wings Acquire John Gibson
Matthew Knies

Inks Six-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
Aaron Judge

Blasts Two Homers, Dealing With Back Issue
Claude Giroux

Signs One-Year Deal with Senators
Yordan Alvarez

has Chance to Return Next Weekend
Minnesota Timberwolves

Julius Randle Signs Three-Year Extension
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Opts into Player Option
Luis Robert Jr.

Heads to Injured List
Gabriel Arias

Carted Off on Sunday
Bryce Harper

Faces Live Pitching
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Remains Out on Sunday
Utah Jazz

Bojan Bogdanovic Retiring From Basketball
Los Angeles Lakers

Dorian Finney-Smith Declines Player Option
Jaylin Williams

Signing Three-Year Extension
LeBron James

Accepts Player Option
Anfernee Simons

"a Possible Re-Trade Candidate"
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
NFL

NFL Won't Hold Supplemental Draft This Year
Damon Arnette

Getting Second Chance With Texans
Deommodore Lenoir

Arrested for Obstruction of Justice
Yordan Alvarez

Eyeing Return Before All-Star Break
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Quinn Priester

Fans 11 in One-Hit Gem
Spencer Schwellenbach

Dominant in Victory
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Expected to Make Second-Year Jump
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Out of Lineup Saturday
Jalin Hyatt

Looking to Flip the Script in 2025
Garrett Mitchell

to Undergo Shoulder Surgery
José Ramírez

Jose Ramirez in Guardians Lineup on Saturday
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
Ty Dillon

Could Benefit from Kaulig Speed
Chase Burns

Slated to Make Next Start on Monday
Dylan Sampson

Being Used as a Receiver
Carson Schwesinger

Figures to be in Full-Time Role in 2025
Cedric Tillman

Should Have Full-Time Role
Bryce Young

Looking More Comfortable, Showing More Intensity
Charlie Coyle

Blue Jackets Acquire Charlie Coyle and Miles Wood From Colorado
Jack Quinn

Signs Up for Two More Years with Sabres
Brandon Saad

Stays in Vegas on One-Year Deal
Trent Frederic

Inks Eight-Year Extension
Josh Naylor

Exits Friday's Contest Early with Neck Stiffness
Emil Heineman

Shipped to the Islanders
Noah Dobson

Traded to Montreal
John Tavares

Agrees to Four-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
Sam Bennett

Signs Eight-Year Extension with Panthers
NYI

Islanders Select Matthew Schaefer With No. 1 Pick in NHL Draft
Aaron Rodgers

Roman Wilson Could Fit Nicely With Aaron Rodgers
Josh Simmons

on Schedule to Open the Year as a Starter
Micah Parsons

Contract Length an Issue for Cowboys, Micah Parsons
Denver Broncos

Broncos Unsure How Their Running Back Room Will Look
Russell Wilson

Not the Only Leader in Giants Clubhouse
Charles Oliveira

Can Become A Two-Time Lightweight Champion
Ilia Topuria

A Favorite At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Can Become The New Flyweight Champion
Alexandre Pantoja

Set For Fourth Title Defense At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Renato Moicano

Returns At UFC 317
Beneil Dariush

An Underdog At UFC 317
Payton Talbott

Looks To Bounce Back
Felipe Lima

Set To Open Up UFC 317 Main Card
Daniil Tarasov

Panthers Bring in Daniil Tarasov
Frederick Gaudreau

Kraken Pick Up Frederick Gaudreau From Wild
Michael Thorbjornsen

Returns in Detroit at Rocket Classic
Adam Hadwin

Could Struggle Over the Weekend in Detroit
Cam Davis

Hopes Detroit Magic Can Spark Turnaround
Matt Wallace

a Boom-or-Bust Option at Rocket Classic
Joel Dahmen

Not Cutting it Lately
Michael Kim

Searching for Spark at Rocket Classic
Rasmus Hojgaard

a High-Ceiling Play in Rocket Classic
Matt McCarty

a Wild Card Heading into Detroit
Emiliano Grillo

Rolling into the Summer Season
Rickie Fowler

Looking for More Magic at Rocket Classic
Wyndham Clark

Brings High Upside to Detroit Golf Club
Max Greyserman

Could Make Noise at Rocket Classic
Akshay Bhatia

a Strong Value Play at Rocket Classic
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF