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Fantasy football start em, sit em lineups advice for the Bills vs. Chiefs on Sunday, January 26 for the AFC Championship (2025). NFL matchups analysis and starts/sits.
There are only three NFL games remaining, but they all are sure to include dramatic finishes and blockbuster matchups. Below you can read our matchups analysis article for the Bills vs. Chiefs game to help make any fantasy lineup decisions for whatever contest, league, or tournament you are participating in.
It's time for another edition of the modern-day Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning rivalry! Josh Allen looks to finally get over the hump by defeating Patrick Mahomes and advancing to his first career Super Bowl. Meanwhile, Kansas City is looking to be the first team to ever win three titles in a row, and it starts with beating Buffalo one more time in the postseason.
Read our fantasy football breakdowns for this game -- the recommended starts, sits, and matchups we love heading into the AFC Championship. Below, you'll see the fantasy football outlooks for key players like Josh Allen, Isiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt, Khalil Shakir, Xavier Worthy, James Cook, Travis Kelce, and more.
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Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Time: Sunday 6:30 PM ET
Spread: Chiefs -1.5
Projected Point Total: 48.5
Matchups We Love
Although Isiah Pacheco has not looked great since returning from injury, he does have a great matchup in the AFC Championship game against the Bills. Buffalo allowed the third-most fantasy to opposing running backs in the regular season, and Derrick Henry and Justice Hill averaged 6.1 yards per carry on the ground against this front seven in the Divisional Round. As a result, Pacheco can be a value play in some DFS contests this week. Just be careful trusting him, as he played only 31% of the team's offensive snaps in last week's win.
RB Kareem Hunt
Kareem Hunt will be a better fantasy option than Pacheco in the AFC Conference Championship game against the Bills. Hunt played 47% of the team's offensive snaps last week and scored a touchdown for the third straight game (not counting the Week 18 contest when most starters sat out).
Kareem Hunt has a touchdown for Kansas City!
📺: #HOUvsKC on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on @NFLPlus and ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/5X4xMhJc4n— NFL (@NFL) January 18, 2025
Therefore, Hunt will have some potential in DFS contests this weekend. He has played over 42% of the team's offensive snaps in three consecutive games and now will face a Bills defense that allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs in the regular season.
Khalil Shakir remains Josh Allen's go-to target in the passing game. He has caught six passes in both playoff games while scoring above 12 PPR fantasy points in both contests. Now, he has a great matchup against the Chiefs this weekend.
Shakir caught eight passes for 70 yards the last time he faced this Kansas City secondary back in Week 11, and this Chiefs defense allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to slot wideouts over the final six weeks of the regular season. As a result, the Bills playmaker will be one of the best wide receiver plays of the entire weekend.
Dalton Kincaid has not been a strong fantasy option for most of the year. He has scored in double figures in PPR formats just three times during the 2024-25 season and only caught one pass for 11 yards last week.
However, he can be a great value play in some contests this weekend. The Chiefs allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends in the regular season, and Dalton Schultz scored 10.3 PPR fantasy points last week against them in the Divisional Round. That makes Kincaid a potential tight end option in a nice matchup.
Matchups We Hate
RB James Cook
James Cook has seen a ton of opportunities in the first two rounds of the playoffs. He has totaled 43 touches in those two games while scoring at least 11 PPR fantasy points in both contests. But he'll be a riskier option this weekend against a tough Chiefs defense.
Kansas City allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs in the regular season, and Cook only managed 20 rush yards against the Chiefs back in Week 11. Although the third-year back scored two touchdowns in that game, he could struggle once again on the ground in the AFC Championship.
JAMES COOK WITH HIS 3RD TD OF THE GAME 🤯
IT'S ONLY THE FIRST HALF.
(via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/RSUVc4hvS1
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 13, 2024
RB Ray Davis
Although Ray Davis scored a touchdown last week against the Ravens, he is not a strong fantasy start in the AFC Championship game. He has only seen a combined 13 snaps in the first two rounds of the NFL playoffs and is the clear RB3 in this Buffalo backfield. So, he should be avoided against a tough Chiefs defense.
WR Amari Cooper
Rolling out Amari Cooper in any DFS contest this weekend is extremely risky. Cooper did not catch any passes in last week's win and only has six receptions across the past five games. On top of that, he could see Trent McDuffie in coverage for parts of this game. McDuffie ranks 12th in yards per reception allowed this season.
Other Matchups
QB Josh Allen
Josh Allen will face the Chiefs for the fourth time in the playoffs on Sunday and will remain a strong fantasy quarterback option this weekend. Allen has scored above 27 fantasy points in each of his previous three meetings against Kansas City in the playoffs, including 30 fantasy points in last year's Divisional Round loss.
Although Allen didn't have the best passing numbers against the Ravens last week, look for the All-Pro quarterback to bounce back in a big way in the AFC Championship. He also scored 24.98 fantasy points against the Chiefs earlier this year.
4th-and-2, two point game vs. the Chiefs. And Josh Allen does that. 26-yard TD run. Incredible play. pic.twitter.com/Xx7Jrbm6J8
— Alaina Getzenberg (@agetzenberg) November 18, 2024
Patrick Mahomes has not been the best fantasy quarterback option this season. However, he could be a play in most contests this weekend. Mahomes always shows up for these big games and has averaged 28 fantasy points in his three playoff meetings against the Bills. Buffalo's secondary has also allowed over 18 fantasy points to the position in five of the past seven games.
RB Ty Johnson
If you are looking for a potential value play in DFS contests this weekend, Ty Johnson could be a sneaky option. He remains a major part of this Bills offense and has played at least 30% of the team's offensive snaps in six straight games, excluding Week 18 when most players sat out.
Although he only saw six opportunities in last week's win, he did score 15 PPR fantasy points in the Wild Card Round against the Broncos. So, he has the potential to score in double figures in this game, given his presence in the passing game.
WR Keon Coleman
Keon Coleman is another Bills wide receiver who might be hard to trust in the AFC Championship game against the Chiefs. Coleman has caught just two passes combined in the first two rounds of the NFL playoffs, and the rookie hasn't caught more than three passes in a game since Week 8. While he'll come in as a lower value in DFS contests, it's best to probably look elsewhere.
Curtis Samuel will be a risker fantasy play this weekend against the Chiefs. Samuel has played under 40% of the team's offensive snaps in both playoff games and only caught two passes for nine yards in last week's win.
Samuel, though, did have his best game of the season against the Chiefs back in Week 11. He caught five passes for 58 yards and one touchdown in that game. Given that the Chiefs allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to slot wideouts in the final six weeks of the regular season, the Bills wideout could be a dart-throw in DFS contests.
Xavier Worthy will be a solid play against the Bills. He has caught at least five passes in six straight games and appears to be Patrick Mahomes' favorite wideout to go to in the passing game. Given Worthy's speed and big-play potential, he will be a top wide receiver option in most contests this weekend.
X GON' GIVE IT TO YA‼️ pic.twitter.com/SPBbzNpJu6
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) September 6, 2024
Marquise Brown did not catch a pass in last week's Divisional Round, but it was encouraging to see him play a season-high 67% of the team's offensive snaps. As a result, Brown can be a sneaky play in most contests this weekend. He has totaled at least 45 receiving yards in two of his three games this season.
Brown will also have a solid matchup in the slot against Taron Johnson. Brown has played 48% of his snaps in the slot, and Johnson ranks 99th in catch rate allowed and 84th in passer rating allowed this season.
DeAndre Hopkins should not be a preferred option for most in DFS contests this week. Hopkins only played 31% of the team's offensive snaps last week and has totaled under 8.7 PPR fantasy points in four straight games.
While the veteran could show out on Sunday, his recent usage in the passing game makes him harder to trust. Hopkins has totaled less than 40 receiving yards in seven of his last eight games.
TE Travis Kelce
Travis Kelce had another dominating playoff performance last week, catching seven passes for 117 yards and one touchdown. The veteran tight end has now scored above 18 PPR fantasy points in 13 of his past 14 playoff games. As a result, he'll remain a strong tight end option this weekend against the Bills.
Kelce might have only scored 2.8 PPR fantasy points against the Bills the last time he faced them back in Week 11, but he always seems to show up when it's the playoffs. Buffalo also allowed nine catches for 134 yards and one touchdown to Baltimore tight ends a week ago in the Divisional Round.
Notable Fantasy-Relevant Injuries
- None
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