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Potential quarterback sleepers and busts for 2024 fantasy football drafts. Joey Pollizze details potential sleepers and busts at the position for 2024 fantasy drafts.
Everyone wants to know when the best time to take a quarterback is in fantasy football drafts. The answer to that question really depends on how the first couple of rounds go.
If you really want a top quarterback like Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts, fantasy managers are going to have to spend a second- or third-round pick on them. Sometimes, though, it isn't worth spending that high of a pick because signal-callers like Anthony Richardson, Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott, and Kyler Murray are still available in the fifth, sixth, and seventh rounds.
Outside of them, there are also quarterbacks going in the double-digit rounds who could finish inside the top 12. So, let's look at the quarterback position heading into the 2024 fantasy season and determine three sleepers and two busts.
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2024 Fantasy Football Quarterback Sleepers
Deshaun Watson - Cleveland Browns
It makes sense why Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson is going as low as he is in drafts. He has only played a combined 12 games since the 2020 season while failing to prove himself on the field over the past few years. As a result, Watson currently has an ADP of QB22 this summer.
However, that seems too low for a quarterback who can put together a top-12 fantasy finish in 2024 -- if everything goes right. Of course, Watson only played in six games last year after undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery after Week 10. The veteran, though, was a better fantasy option than most people remember when he was on the field.
In the five full games he started and finished, Watson averaged 18.3 fantasy points. In two of those contests, the 28-year-old scored above 21 points. Now, the Browns quarterback didn't play in all 17 games, but if he did, his 18.3 average would have helped him finish as the QB6 in total points (311.1).
"I’ll tell you this right now. I’ve seen glimpses, I’ve seen flashes of absolute greatness."
"Patty Mahomes is a once-in-a-lifetime guy. I mean, he’s insane. ... I believe that Deshaun has that. I truly do."
Here's Wyatt Teller on #Browns QB Deshaun Watson: pic.twitter.com/bV4ELllGmt
— Tyler Dunne (@TyDunne) July 15, 2024
While it would be hard to imagine him finishing that high in 2024, he does have the potential to finish inside the top 12 in 2024. He was on pace for over 400 rush yards last season, which gives Watson a higher ceiling and floor than most quarterbacks. On top of that, the Browns added Jerry Jeudy (trade) to an already solid pass-catching group that consists of Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, and David Njoku.
That makes Watson a sleeper option in fantasy drafts this season, especially at his QB22 price tag.
Kirk Cousins - Atlanta Falcons
For the last couple of seasons, Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins has been a sleeper at the position in fantasy. He hasn't had an ADP inside QB14 since 2019, but every year, he continues to be a consistent fantasy option. In 2024, he has a QB17 ADP.
That seems like a bargain for any fantasy manager waiting to grab a quarterback in drafts in 2024. Cousins has finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback in three of the last four years and six of the past nine seasons. The only reason he didn't last year was because he tore his Achilles in Week 8. But his 19.3 fantasy points average would have put him on pace for a top-7 fantasy finish.
Y’all okay with another Kirk to Drake video before the weekend?https://t.co/Li9i7ANWJc pic.twitter.com/j67lri0yJ7
— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) May 24, 2024
Despite changing teams this offseason from the Vikings to the Falcons, Cousins' fantasy value shouldn't change a ton. He still has elite playmakers around him (Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts) and should still throw the ball 35-40 times per game in Atlanta. That makes him one of the best quarterback picks in the later round of drafts this season.
Will Levis - Tennessee Titans
Some might not agree with Tennessee Titans quarterback Will Levis being on this list. However, everything is there for him to succeed in 2024. The Titans not only signed Calvin Ridley in free agency, but they also hired an offensive-minded head coach in Brian Callahan.
Callahan spent the past few years as the Bengals offensive coordinator and really helped Joe Burrow take his game to the next level. His presence now in Tennessee will surely help Levis' development in Year 2. The Titans also have plenty of weapons to support the young quarterback in the passing game. Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, and Tyler Boyd are three solid pass-catchers in the NFL. Having two WR1s in Ridley and Hopkins is going to make a difference for the 25-year-old this season.
We've seen this play out before when a team goes out and gets a WR1 for its young quarterback. It happened with Josh Allen. It happened with Jalen Hurts. It most recently happened with Justin Fields. All three of those young quarterbacks then went on to have their best passing season the next year. There's no reason why Levis can't fall under that category in 2024.
He showed some great things as a rookie -- like when he threw for 238 yards and four touchdowns in his NFL debut in Week 8 -- and there is room for him to grow in his second year. That makes him a sleeper option at his QB23 ADP.
2024 Fantasy Football Quarterback Busts
Patrick Mahomes - Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes will not necessarily be a traditional bust in fantasy in 2024. Rather, he is a player fantasy managers should avoid because of his QB3 ADP.
There's no doubt that Mahomes is the best quarterback in the world. He led the Chiefs to their second straight Super Bowl last year while winning his third Super Bowl MVP. But from a fantasy perspective, the 28-year-old is not as valuable as some might think.
Mahomes has failed to finish inside the top three at the position in four of the past five seasons. Last year, he finished as the QB8 -- the worst fantasy finish of his career. Now, many will point to the Chiefs' lack of wide receivers as a reason for his career-worst fantasy season. That is certainly valid, and Kansas City did a good job upgrading that group this offseason by drafting Xavier Worthy in the first round and signing Marquise Brown in free agency.
Ladies & gentlemen, WE’RE SO BACK. pic.twitter.com/V9CGKe1O0i
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) July 16, 2024
So, it's safe to say that Mahomes will post better numbers in 2024. However, he's still going a bit too high in drafts, considering both Anthony Richardson and Joe Burrow are going 2-3 rounds later. The Chiefs quarterback will have a high fantasy floor again this year, but he could fall short of his 37.1 ADP due to his limited rushing upside. He has yet to total over 400 rush yards in a season over his career.
Caleb Williams - Chicago Bears
Fantasy managers have to be patient when it comes to rookies, especially quarterbacks. Only four quarterbacks since 2013 have finished top-11 at the position as a rookie: C.J. Stroud (2023), Justin Herbert (2020), Kyler Murray (2019), and Dak Prescott (2016). Of those four quarterbacks, only Herbert scored more than 300 fantasy points in his first year.
So, recent history is not on Williams' side heading into the 2024 campaign. He is currently going as the QB11 in drafts, which might be too high for a quarterback who doesn't necessarily run at a high level. The former USC quarterback only rushed for 142 yards in his final college season and 382 yards in 2022.
As a result, fantasy managers will need to count on his passing numbers to get him to that QB11 ADP. That seems like a tall task for any quarterback entering their first year in the league. Of course, he does have the potential to do it after being selected with the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and jumping into a situation in Chicago with pass-catchers like DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze.
However, Williams might be a bit overvalued in drafts this season. He is going earlier than both Brock Purdy and Jared Goff, two quarterbacks who finished top seven in fantasy a year ago. While the rookie does have a higher ceiling than both of those quarterbacks in fantasy, he just might be too much of a risk as your QB1 in 2024. Rookies need time to develop, and the 22-year-old should be no different.
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