RADIO
Andrew looks at wide receiver (WR) fantasy football sleepers and breakouts by analyzing vacated air yards. Which fantasy wide receivers will break out in 2024?
Buffalo Bills
Unfortunately, downfield targets haven't been a strong suit of Samuel's game. His average depth of target hasn't been over eight yards since 2019. Referencing his 2020 season again, his ADOT was 7.2 yards. That ranked 100th among wide receivers. Shakir's ADOT last season (when he saw his first meaningful snaps) wasn't much better (8.9 yards). Both of these wideouts are better for the short-to-medium throws. The majority of the vacated targets available will go toward Samuel and Shakir.
Anticipate a Buffalo offense that runs more and takes deep shots less. That's how the Bills strung together enough wins to not only secure them a playoff spot but come back and win the AFC East in 2023. The costs for Samuel and Shakir are the best values, just don't expect them or anyone else in Buffalo to replicate Diggs' production alone.
Jacksonville Jaguars
| Team | Vacated Air Yards | Vacated Air Yard % | Vacated Targets | Vacated WR Targets |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 3,174 | 67.6% | 251 | 239 |
There is a unique opportunity for the wide receivers in Northeast Florida. Over 3,100 air yards are available from the year prior, but you may notice that the vacated target total is significantly less than Buffalo and the next team in this article, the Los Angeles Chargers.
Calvin Ridley led the league in the unofficial "What If?" stat in 2023. The new Titan was solely responsible for 1,792 air yards (8th in the NFL), 28 deep targets (8th), and 970 unrealized air yards (6th). Ridley drew over 100 yards in defensive pass interference calls. It didn't help that he also registered six drops. Strong advanced numbers that, unfortunately, only led to 13.5 PPR fantasy points per game (WR28).
https://t.co/eHgIBiayCt pic.twitter.com/UTLnnFdzpp
— Dan Pizzuta (@DanPizzuta) June 14, 2024
The team's other starting outside receiver, Zay Jones, is now a member of the Arizona Cardinals. Trevor Lawrence used his outside guys as downfield threats because the Jaguars roster two excellent possession receivers, Christian Kirk and tight end Evan Engram. Kirk earned over seven targets per game on a 9.9 ADOT. Engram nearly broke the single-season reception record for a tight end (114) but didn't crack 1,000 yards. It's doubtful that their roles will change much in year three under Doug Pederson.
That brings us to the newcomers, the aforementioned Gabe Davis and rookie first-round pick Brian Thomas Jr. Davis inked a deal with the team in the case that Ridley bolted in free agency. If Davis couldn't be consistently productive with Josh Allen throwing him the football, it's hard to imagine he'll be any better with Lawrence. He's a solid real-life football player, not the guy to clamor for on fantasy football draft day.
Thomas Jr. is the intriguing option. As the second fiddle to Malik Nabers at LSU, BTJ recorded 68 receptions for 1,177 yards and 17 touchdowns in his final season in Baton Rouge. He totaled 59 catches for 720 yards and seven scores in his freshman and sophomore campaigns. He and Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels perfected the art of connecting through go routes, Thomas' clear strong suit.
Lawrence has finished in the top 10 for deep ball pass attempts in both years under Pederson. Don't expect him to shy away now that Ridley isn't on the team. Remember, Kirk and Jones were the top target earners before Ridley's arrival, and Lawrence still took his shots. The vacated targets should be spread around, but expect most of the vacated air yards to go toward Thomas Jr. and Davis. For a first-round rookie with boom potential, an ADP in the triple digits shouldn't scare any fantasy managers away.
Los Angeles Chargers
| Team | Vacated Air Yards | Vacated Air Yard % | Vacated Targets | Vacated WR Targets |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 2,672 | 57.9% | 395 | 239 |
Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, and Gerald Everett are all donning new uniforms in 2024, which pushes the Chargers to the top of the list for vacated targets. There are three reasons that the vacated air yards aren't quite as high as Buffalo's or Jacksonville's. Allen dominated as a possession receiver (9.6 ADOT). The deep threat, Williams, played in just three games before an ACL tear ended his season. The second-most targeted player, Ekeler, saw nearly half of his targets come from behind the line of scrimmage.
Holdover Joshua Palmer and second-round rookie Ladd McConkey lead the wide receiver room in Los Angeles. Colossal rookie bust Quentin Johnston remains on the roster, as does veteran addition D.J. Chark. It's a relatively weak depth chart. Tight ends Hayden Hurst and Will Dissly aren't going to command targets. Both new running backs, Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins, aren't known as pass catchers.
Unfortunately, all of those vacated targets won't actually be up for grabs. The Chargers will throw the ball much less than they did in 2023. Justin Herbert attempted around 40 passes per game in his first three seasons. That number slipped to 35 in 2023. Overall (with Herbert and Easton Stick under center), the Chargers still ranked in the top five in attempts per game. Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman don't operate that way. They ran one of the slowest offenses together in San Francisco. That trend continued with Harbaugh at Michigan. Roman's Baltimore offense led the league in running plays in 2021 and finished third in 2019.
Now entering his fourth NFL season, we know who Palmer is. He's been given ample opportunities to establish himself as a long-term asset for the Chargers. Fine is the best word to describe his play. He hasn't paced for a 1,000-yard season and hasn't commanded a 20% target share (even when Allen was out of the lineup late last season). For his price (11th/12th round), Palmer should return decent value. He will be on the field often and has a clear path to being a safe, consistent WR3. It would be foolish to expect him to become a league-winning, breakout wideout.
McConkey possesses the highest breakout potential in Los Angeles as long as Herbert's plantar fascia doesn't keep him off the field at the start of the regular season and he stays healthy himself (he's missed time in training camp with a leg ailment). Because of missed time and his role in the Georgia offense, he didn't post the raw numbers as other top prospects like Marvin Harrison Jr., Nabers, or Rome Odunze. Tight end Brock Bowers was the star of the Bulldog passing game.
While the volume wasn't there, the efficiency was. McConkey dominated zone defense with 4.27 yards per route run and strung together three straight seasons of six or more yards after the catch per reception. He's reportedly been a standout in camp, carrying momentum from an impressive NFL Combine.
Ladd McConkey vs Derwin James #ChargersCamp pic.twitter.com/fJlkVSSKia
— Chargers Country (@ChargersCountry) July 30, 2024
Herbert is a capable quarterback that can benefit any rookie wide receiver. The only question will be if the Chargers throw enough. If they do, McConkey could find himself in the high-end WR3 range during his debut campaign.
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!
More Fantasy Football Analysis
