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Dave Swan's fantasy baseball buy low and sell high candidates for Week 12of the 2021 season. He recommends MLB risers and fallers to target or deal away in trades.
Sometimes fantasy baseball can resemble the stock market. You want the best portfolio of players without having to pay too much for them. Sometimes to achieve the optimal team, you need to make trades. The best way to gain added value is to trade away an over-performing player for one in a rut. This way, you reap the benefits of a stud player hitting their stride as you get to watch the other person look for answers. The tricky part is assessing which players are trending in which way.
With about 40% of the season under our belts, teams and players are starting to take form. Expected stats are beginning to stabilize, and we can better understand a player's growth.
This will be a weekly piece that drops every Thursday for your assistance. If you like it, follow me on Twitter @davithius to send me a note, suggest other players you're not sure about, or if you want to chat about baseball. I am always happy and willing to answer questions.
Trade Targets to Acquire
Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds
Showing up for the second time in my weekly trade targets is Luis Castillo. In the first write-up, I showcased Castillo for the past few years (3.89 ERA over 590 IP). Unfortunately, this season started with a ton of issues for Castillo: career-low K% (20.9%) and a 5.83 ERA. But I am here to point out he may have finally turned things around, making him a trade target once again.
At the beginning of the season, there wasn't enough data to pinpoint exactly what was causing the issues. However, one significant aspect we can point to is the lack of effectiveness on the changeup. Castillo's changeup shape (vertical and horizontal movement) is nearly identical to previous seasons, and the velocity is in the range as well. However, the whiff% on the changeup has returned in his last two starts, and so have the strikeouts (12.2 IP, 14 Ks). In fact, since May 29th, Castillo touts a 2.28 ERA with a 60% ground ball rate.
My suggestion would be to start with an offer that views Castillo as an SP4. We are hoping that he is back to his old self. You know, the one where he took the MLB by storm and tossed 226 Ks over 190 IP with a 3.21 ERA. Offer any trade ASAP because another solid outing or two will make that trade value skyrocket.
Brendan Rodgers, Colorado Rockies
Since his return from injury, Brendan Rodgers has been a fixture in the Rockies lineup. Whether it was playing SS with Trevor Story or showing his versatility by moving over to 2B. The Rockies' infielder with high pedigree continues to flash an assortment of skills. Also, it's never a bad thing when half your home games are in Coors Field.
In the past two weeks, Rodgers has come alive. In 67 at-bats, he mashed three HRs and racked up 13 RBI. As we advance, the Rockies have been slotting him in the sixth spot of the lineup, so I would expect the RBIs to continue. Additionally, Rodgers is showing growth at the plate. His K% has dropped to 20.5%, which is below the league average and significantly lower than his career marks.
I referred to his home games in Coors Field earlier, but let's give that another minute to talk about expected stats. When you dive into Rodgers' underlying metrics, they don't look very enticing (.226 xBA and .379 xSLG). However, this has become status quo for players in Coors Field because the park allows for a higher than usual BABIP. So my advice, worry less about the expected stats for a player like Rodgers, at least for now.
Sadly, Rodgers only harnesses a 38th percentile sprint speed, so stolen bases aren't likely. However, he wields a solid hit tool and a bit of power as well. Those two aspects at 2B are challenging to find. To my OBP league friends, his near 8% walk rate isn't too shabby either. Remember, he is only 25 years old and has only 180 plate appearances under his belt, but he could be a significant contributor to your team if he takes more steps in the right direction.
Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers
Over the past few weeks, Tarik Skubal has blossomed into a terrific starting pitcher. Oddly, he is still available in 54% of Yahoo leagues. So first, if he is on your waiver wire, stop reading and go scoop him up immediately. If not, let me tell you why Skubal is worth giving assets away to acquire.
For starters, Skubal has not gone shorter than five innings pitched since April. In that eight-game stretch, he has struck out 63 batters and carries a 3.32 ERA. Evermore impressive, the stretch is backed up by a 25.5 K-BB% and 3.53 FIP. This means Skubal has earned every ounce of those unique numbers.
What has made Skubal look elite at times is his changeup. Thrown primarily to right-handed hitters, it touts a 51% whiff rate and .163 batting average against. When you pair this offering alongside his 95-mph fastball and wipeout slider, it's a recipe for disaster for opposing batters. Furthermore, the leap forward has given him a quality start in three of his last four starts.
I would recommend not waiting too long to pounce on this Tigers' SP. Would we be buying a little on the high side? Possibly, but pitching with this kind of strike-out upside is worth it right now.
Trade Targets to Move
David Fletcher, Los Angeles Angels
Finding a player with a batting average over .250 seems like a daunting task these days. On the season, Fletcher is still hitting .273 and .315 over the last month. While his hit tool is incredible, the resume stops there. His walk rate is below 5%, so OBP leagues make him somewhat viable but not elite given his high BA. Additionally, his Statcast numbers suggest there is no power. His xwOBAcon (.288), xSLG (.313), and barrel rate (0%) is in the bottom 5% of the league.
I am not here to dump on Fletcher because he is a terrific real-life player, but that doesn't seem to equate to fantasy baseball. Yet, Fletcher is rostered in 55% of Yahoo leagues. Perhaps his multi-positional flexibility plays a role in it? Come on, the guy has three total barrels in his previous 1200 batted ball events and has never stolen double-digit bases.
If you do have Fletcher on your team, there is a sporting chance that you're lagging in counting stats and power. Don't fret, there is plenty of time to make up categories, but you must move on from Fletcher ASAP. I would offer him in every trade offer made. His roster spot is valuable.
Tyler Stephenson, Cincinnati Reds
Unfortunately for Stephenson, the at-bats are going to tail off due to the return of Joey Votto. Stephenson was getting full-time plate appearances by manning 1B and splitting backstop duties with Tucker Barnhart. The lack of opportunities alone is enough for me to consider swapping him, but there is more.
Much like Fletcher, Stephenson is probably a better baseball player than a fantasy baseball player. He carries a solid hit tool that keeps his .263 batting average sustainable. Furthermore, his xBA is .262, and Stephenson shows the ability to hit both LHP and RHP equally. However, there might be some batted ball luck in the HR department. With hard-hit rates steadily increasing, Stephenson's is down at 37%, and .365 xwOBAcon, is below league average.
The catcher position is extremely lacking, and I would be tossing Stephenson plus a piece for something better. Try to move Stephenson this week, if possible. Another week or two with ten or fewer ABs will drive his stock well below where it is currently at. Barring another injury, he is a streaming option at best.
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