X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

Early Season Usage Rate Analysis - Fantasy Basketball

What exactly is Usage Rate (USG%)?

In the simplest sense of the term, it represents the percentage of team plays a player is involved in when on the floor, given the play results in a shot attempt (including a free throw) or a turnover. For reference, the average player typically has a usage rate of around 20%.

This article will highlight the early season usage rate of a few key players and discuss whether or not that usage will continue as the season progresses. Some players are in new situations and others are just being utilized differently. I will dissect the circumstances, and give my opinion and recommendation on how to proceed based on that analysis.

Upgrade To VIP: Win more with our NBA and DFS Premium Pass, get expert tools and advice from proven winners! Jamie Calandro and Dan Palyo lead the RotoBaller team in 2024-25 with exclusive DFS picks, Prop picks and more. Gain VIP access to our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Cheat Sheets and VIP Chat Rooms. Go Premium, Win More!

Let's get right into it!

Note: all rankings based on 9-category head-to-head leagues

 

Joel Embiid (PHI - PF, C), Current Rank: 39

2021-22 Usage Rate - 33.8%

2020-21 Usage Rate - 43%

As I'm writing this piece, the Sixers stand alone atop the Eastern Conference standings with an 8-2 record. As a team, they look much more balanced than a season ago with Ben Simmons. Maybe that has something to do with it, or maybe it doesn't, but the fact of the matter is other guys are stepping up for Philadelphia early in the season. Seth Curry, Andre Drummond, Georges Niang, Tyrese Maxey, Matisse Thybulle, and Shake Milton all look like really good complementary pieces surrounding Joel Embiid and Tobias Harris. That's great from a real-life perspective for the team, but from a fantasy perspective, it's a little troubling for Embiid in particular.

This season, he's averaging just 15.3 field goal attempts compared to 17.6 a season ago. He's scoring just 21.4 points per game. But with the lower scoring numbers has come more assists. He's taken on more responsibilities as a passer with Simmons not playing. On the young season, Embiid is averaging a career-high 4.0 assists per game. The scoring numbers should climb back up into at least the mid-20s as Embiid for his career has been a 48.5% FG shooter and this season he's shooting at just a 43.5% clip. The 33.8% Usage Rate this season, combined with the constant questionable tags due to his chronic knee issues has to be a bit concerning for fantasy managers.

Analysis - The 33.8% usage rate could be here to stay with the rest of the team performing admirably. Might not be a top-15 fantasy asset if this continues and he'll always come with his fair share of questionable tags due to chronic knee issues.

 

Kevin Porter Jr. (HOU - PG, SG), Current Rank: 199

2021-22 Usage Rate - 24.3%

2020-21 Usage Rate - 27.7%

Porter Jr.'s usage has declined playing alongside rookie Jalen Green, who owns a 23.3% usage rate of his own. KPJ struggled with inefficient play last season but was able to overcome some of that with his stat-stuffing ability down the stretch on his 27.7% usage rate. With the ball in his hands less, it's worrisome that he's turning it over even more (4.7 times) and shooting just 38% from the field this season.

Analysis - Look to move KPJ during the stretch of games where he gets hot and shoots a high percentage with low turnover numbers. His efficiency issues are here to stay and it doesn't appear as if the volume will be as prolific this season enough to mask those issues.

 

Ja Morant (MEM – PG), Current Rank: 48

2021-22 Usage Rate - 32.3%

2020-21 Usage Rate - 25.2%

Morant has been nothing short of spectacular to start the season, averaging a career-high 25.2 points per game on 49.4% shooting from the field. His usage rate is through the roof without Dillon Brooks on the floor. Last season, Morant's usage rate sat at just 25.2% playing next to Brooks. De'Anthony Melton has been fantastic filling in for Brooks early in the season, but he's not a usage hog like Brooks (26.2 USG% last season).

Analysis - It's going to be difficult for Morant to sustain this level of production when Brooks returns to the lineup because he's a guy that likes to operate with the ball in his hands. Recall last season Morant finished outside the top-150 players in 9-category head-to-head fantasy leagues. Selling high while his value has likely peaked might not be the worst idea.

 

OG Anunoby (TOR – SF, PF), Current Rank: 10

2021-22 Usage Rate - 25%

2020-21 Usage Rate - 20%

If you read any of my stuff this preseason, I was all over Anunoby as a breakout candidate. So far, he's outperformed even my lofty expectations, ranking 10th on a per-game basis. His usage rate is up nearly 5% from a season ago, but Pascal Siakam is expected back in the very near future, so expect that to decrease just a bit. I expect Siakam's return to negatively affect rookie Scottie Barnes more than it affects Anunoby. He may no longer average 20.6 points and 2.8 assists per game, but efficiency, along with impressive defensive stats, should always be there for OG.

Analysis - Temper expectations, but do not sell-high thinking that Anunoby will "come back down to earth" as a result of Siakam returning to the lineup. OG can still be a top-30 fantasy asset in 9-category head-to-head leagues.

 

Derrick White (SAS – PG, SG), Current Rank: 67

2021-22 Usage Rate - 18.9%

2020-21 Usage Rate - 27.6%

White led the Spurs with a usage rate of 27.6% last season playing without DeMar DeRozan. This season, his usage rate sits at just 18.9%, and he's still ranked 67th on a per-game basis. The minutes are up, and more importantly, the assists are up by a lot (5.7) compared to a season ago (3.5). He'll continue to produce in the defensive categories (currently averaging 1.1 steals and 1.0 blocks per game).

Analysis - The lower USG% is a combination of a couple of things. One, Keldon Johnson has a USG% of 25.3% compared to last season when he had a USG% of just 19.3%. Dejounte Murray's USG% is also up from a season ago and both of those guys are averaging more shots per game this season, contributing to those higher usage rates. White's assists are up, but his shot attempts are down thus far, suppressing his usage rate. There's room to grow here for White, which is why I'd be attempting to buy low wherever possible.

 

DeMar DeRozan (CHI - SF, PF), Current Rank: 15

2021-22 Usage Rate - 31.2%

2020-21 Usage Rate - 26.4%

DeRozan is averaging 27 points (50.6% FG) on 19.5 shot attempts per game. The last time he's taken that many shots per game was way back in 2016 with the Raptors when he averaged a career-high 27.3 points per contest. Despite the massive usage rate, DeRozan is averaging just 1.6 turnovers per game, the lowest since his rookie season. He's also hitting almost one three-pointer per game, up from 0.3 per game last season in San Antonio. Meanwhile, Nikola Vucevic's usage rate sits at just 21.5% early in the season. Compare that to his usage rate of 28.7% a season ago in Chicago.

Analysis - There's no way DeRozan can keep this up. Sure, he's scored 30 or more points in three of his last four games, but his usage and efficiency metrics are all-time highs on a very formidable Bulls squad. Expect his usage rate to drop while Vucevic's comes up a bit. I'd be doing my best to move DeRozan while his value is at an all-time high.

 



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy basketball mobile app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, lineup notifications & DFS articles. All free!

More Fantasy Basketball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contract Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Brock Bowers

Officially Questionable for Monday Night
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Players Roster Kyle Busch At Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. too Risky to Consider Rostering At Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Consistent Enough to Advance in Playoffs, but Probably Won't Factor for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12 but Might Be Able to Do It
Ross Chastain

Has Never Led at Bristol, but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
Ryan Preece

Seems Slower on Concrete Than on Asphalt
NASCAR

Legacy Motor Club's Short Track Speed Will Likely Hold John H. Nemechek Back
Erik Jones

Definitely Faster This Year, but Short Tracks Still a Liability
Daniel Suarez

Despite Poor Qualifying Run, Daniel Suarez Might Not Be a Great Choice for Place Differential Points
Noah Gragson

Unlikely to Be Fast at Bristol but Still Might Be Worth Considering for DFS
Tarik Skubal

Avoids Serious Injury, Expected to Make Next Start
Xavier Worthy

Officially Ruled Out for Week 2
Austin Ekeler

Suffers Torn Achilles
Quinshon Judkins

Expected to Play Against Ravens
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
Kyle Larson

Can Kyle Larson Dominate at Bristol Again?
Denny Hamlin

One of the Best at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

All Eyes on Ryan Blaney at Bristol
Chase Briscoe

Whiffs in Qualifying, Will Start 31st in Bristol Night Race
Ty Gibbs

Could Contend at Bristol
Tanner Bibee

Fans 10 in Two-Hit Shutout
Zach Neto

Dealing With Wrist Soreness
Masyn Winn

Shut Down for Rest of Season
Tarik Skubal

to Undergo Imaging on Saturday
Jacory Croskey-Merritt

RapSheet: Jacory Croskey-Merritt Expected to Be Lead Back Moving Forward
Tyler Soderstrom

Scratched on Friday With Groin Tightness
Tarik Skubal

Exits with Side Tightness
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
Ketel Marte

Scratched From Friday's Lineup
Brock Purdy

Officially Ruled Out Against Saints
Jauan Jennings

Given Questionable Tag for Week 2
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Dallas Goedert

Officially Ruled Out for Week 2
Xavier Worthy

Listed as Doubtful to Play in Week 2
Jayden Reed

Hopes to Return in November Following Surgery
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Kyle Tucker

"Unlikely" to Return When Eligible on Tuesday
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Ketel Marte

Expected to Return on Friday
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Quinshon Judkins

Questionable to Make NFL Debut in Week 2
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Alexander Hernandez

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Quang Le

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Card Opener
Santiago Luna

Set For His Debut At Noche UFC 3
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Won't Play Against Georgia
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks
CFB

Dylan Edwards Slated to Return on Friday
Jacory Croskey-Merritt

Sees Little Usage in Week 2, Outlook Still Trending Upwards?
Deebo Samuel Sr.

Leads Commanders in Catches, Scores Touchdown Again
Tucker Kraft

Posts Huge Performance on Thursday
Joe Mixon

Lack of Joe Mixon Injury Updates Sparking Concern for Fantasy Managers?
Jayden Reed

Fractures Collarbone, Headed for Injured Reserve
Austin Ekeler

Commanders Fear Austin Ekeler Tore his Achilles
Jesús Luzardo

Jesus Luzardo Strikes Out 10 in Win
Aaron Judge

Matches Yankees Legend with Two-Homer Game
Austin Ekeler

Injured, Carried Off Field with Non-Contact Injury
Jayden Reed

Ruled Out with Shoulder Injury
Quinshon Judkins

Browns Insider Expects NFL to "Come Down Heavy" on a Quinshon Judkins Suspension
Jayden Reed

Questionable to Return on TNF With Shoulder Injury
Anthony Volpe

Playing Through Partially Torn Labrum in his Shoulder
Adam Lowry

Aims for Early-Season Return
Charles Oliveira

Not Eyeing Retirement
CFB

Ryan Williams Expected to Play Against Wisconsin
CFB

Billy Edwards Jr. Unlikely to Play on Saturday
P.J. Washington

Officially Signs Contract Extension
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Questionable to Make Debut Against Georgia
Lauri Markkanen

Big at Both Ends as Finland Books Place in EuroBasket Semis
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Notches 39 Points in Losing Effort
NBA

Cam Reddish Expected to Move to Europe
NBA

Trey Lyles Joins Real Madrid
Charles Bassey

Signs Exhibit 10 Deal With Hawks
Sacramento Kings

Terence Davis Waived by Kings
Will Smith

Scratched With Hand Soreness on Wednesday
Ketel Marte

has Foot Contusion, Expected to Play Friday
Shohei Ohtani

Won't Pitch This Weekend
MacKenzie Gore

to Start on Thursday
Ketel Marte

Exits Early on Wednesday
Matthew Knies

Ready for Bigger Role With Maple Leafs
Jack Eichel

Unbothered by Lack of Extension
Sidney Crosby

Not Thinking About Leaving Pittsburgh
SJ

Michael Misa Signs Entry-Level Contract With Sharks
Rutger McGroarty

Nursing an Injury
Anthony Rizzo

Retires
Cameron Champ

the Ultimate Wild Card at Procore
Cameron Young

Looks to Extend Momentum in Napa
Davis Thompson

Searching for a Spark at Procore
Sahith Theegala

Looking to Reignite Form at Procore
Mackenzie Hughes

Aims for Another Strong Showing at Procore
Luke Clanton

Brings Ball-Striking Upside to Napa
Seamus Power

Looking to Overcome Poor Course History at Procore
Joe Highsmith

Hoping to Find Form in Napa
Masyn Winn

Will Require Offseason Knee Surgery
Kristaps Porzingis

Reportedly Still Not Completely Healthy
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Reportedly on the Trade Block
Andre Drummond

Future in Philadelphia in Doubt
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Helps Greece Reach Semis at EuroBasket
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Posts Historic Triple-Double
Joel Dahmen

Finishes Tied For 15 at Wyndham Championship
Bud Cauley

Finishes Tied for 33rd at BMW Championship
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied for Seventh at Tour Championship
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Tied for 25th at Tour Championship
Collin Morikawa

Finishes Tied for 19th at Tour Championship
Keith Mitchell

Misses Cut at Wyndham Championship
Ben Griffin

Finishes Tied for 10th at Tour Championship
Patrick Cantlay

Finishes Tied for Second at Tour Championship
Gary Woodland

Could Hang Around at Procore Championship
Ranger Suárez

Ranger Suarez Strikes Out 12, Earns 12th Win on Tuesday
Karl Vilips

Ready for Napa Valley This Weekend
Taylor Montgomery

Heating Up at the Right Time
Jackson Koivun

May Be a Little Rusty at Procore Championship
Doug Ghim

Looking to Rise Up at Napa Valley
Josh Giddey

Re-Signs With Bulls for Four Years
Shakir Mukhamadullin

Joins Informal Skate
William Eklund

Skates With Sharks
Owen Power

Back at 100 Percent
Tyler Seguin

Cleared for Action
Mathew Barzal

Good to Go for Season Opener
Dustin Wolf

Signs Seven-Year Extension
NBA

Mason Jones Takes His Talents to Australia
NBA

Talen Horton-Tucker Joins Reigning EuroLeague Champions
Malcolm Brogdon

on Knicks' Radar
Andrew Wiggins

Attracting Interest From Lakers
Miami Heat

Heat Interested in Reunion With Precious Achiuwa
New York Knicks

Ben Simmons Reportedly Declined Knicks' Contract Offer
Elias Pettersson

Feeling "Good" Ahead of Season
NHL

Alex Formenton Rejoins Swiss Team
Caio Borralho

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Nassourdine Imavov

Extends Win Streak
Mauricio Ruffy

Gets Submitted
Benoît Saint Denis

Benoit Saint Denis Taps Out Mauricio Ruffy
Paul Craig

Retires After UFC Paris Loss
Modestas Bukauskas

Scores First-Round Knockout
Bolaji Oki

Suffers Second-Round TKO Loss
Mason Jones

Scores Comeback Win

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP