Early Season Usage Rate Analysis - Fantasy Basketball

What exactly is Usage Rate (USG%)?

In the simplest sense of the term, it represents the percentage of team plays a player is involved in when on the floor, given the play results in a shot attempt (including a free throw) or a turnover. For reference, the average player typically has a usage rate of around 20%.

This article will highlight the early season usage rate of a few key players and discuss whether or not that usage will continue as the season progresses. Some players are in new situations and others are just being utilized differently. I will dissect the circumstances, and give my opinion and recommendation on how to proceed based on that analysis.

Let's get right into it!

Note: all rankings based on 9-category head-to-head leagues

Joel Embiid (PHI - PF, C), Current Rank: 39

2021-22 Usage Rate - 33.8%

2020-21 Usage Rate - 43%

As I'm writing this piece, the Sixers stand alone atop the Eastern Conference standings with an 8-2 record. As a team, they look much more balanced than a season ago with Ben Simmons. Maybe that has something to do with it, or maybe it doesn't, but the fact of the matter is other guys are stepping up for Philadelphia early in the season. Seth Curry, Andre Drummond, Georges Niang, Tyrese Maxey, Matisse Thybulle, and Shake Milton all look like really good complementary pieces surrounding Joel Embiid and Tobias Harris. That's great from a real-life perspective for the team, but from a fantasy perspective, it's a little troubling for Embiid in particular.

This season, he's averaging just 15.3 field goal attempts compared to 17.6 a season ago. He's scoring just 21.4 points per game. But with the lower scoring numbers has come more assists. He's taken on more responsibilities as a passer with Simmons not playing. On the young season, Embiid is averaging a career-high 4.0 assists per game. The scoring numbers should climb back up into at least the mid-20s as Embiid for his career has been a 48.5% FG shooter and this season he's shooting at just a 43.5% clip. The 33.8% Usage Rate this season, combined with the constant questionable tags due to his chronic knee issues has to be a bit concerning for fantasy managers.

Analysis - The 33.8% usage rate could be here to stay with the rest of the team performing admirably. Might not be a top-15 fantasy asset if this continues and he'll always come with his fair share of questionable tags due to chronic knee issues.

Kevin Porter Jr. (HOU - PG, SG), Current Rank: 199

2021-22 Usage Rate - 24.3%

2020-21 Usage Rate - 27.7%

Porter Jr.'s usage has declined playing alongside rookie Jalen Green, who owns a 23.3% usage rate of his own. KPJ struggled with inefficient play last season but was able to overcome some of that with his stat-stuffing ability down the stretch on his 27.7% usage rate. With the ball in his hands less, it's worrisome that he's turning it over even more (4.7 times) and shooting just 38% from the field this season.

Analysis - Look to move KPJ during the stretch of games where he gets hot and shoots a high percentage with low turnover numbers. His efficiency issues are here to stay and it doesn't appear as if the volume will be as prolific this season enough to mask those issues.

Ja Morant (MEM – PG), Current Rank: 48

2021-22 Usage Rate - 32.3%

2020-21 Usage Rate - 25.2%

Morant has been nothing short of spectacular to start the season, averaging a career-high 25.2 points per game on 49.4% shooting from the field. His usage rate is through the roof without Dillon Brooks on the floor. Last season, Morant's usage rate sat at just 25.2% playing next to Brooks. De'Anthony Melton has been fantastic filling in for Brooks early in the season, but he's not a usage hog like Brooks (26.2 USG% last season).

Analysis - It's going to be difficult for Morant to sustain this level of production when Brooks returns to the lineup because he's a guy that likes to operate with the ball in his hands. Recall last season Morant finished outside the top-150 players in 9-category head-to-head fantasy leagues. Selling high while his value has likely peaked might not be the worst idea.

OG Anunoby (TOR – SF, PF), Current Rank: 10

2021-22 Usage Rate - 25%

2020-21 Usage Rate - 20%

If you read any of my stuff this preseason, I was all over Anunoby as a breakout candidate. So far, he's outperformed even my lofty expectations, ranking 10th on a per-game basis. His usage rate is up nearly 5% from a season ago, but Pascal Siakam is expected back in the very near future, so expect that to decrease just a bit. I expect Siakam's return to negatively affect rookie Scottie Barnes more than it affects Anunoby. He may no longer average 20.6 points and 2.8 assists per game, but efficiency, along with impressive defensive stats, should always be there for OG.

Analysis - Temper expectations, but do not sell-high thinking that Anunoby will "come back down to earth" as a result of Siakam returning to the lineup. OG can still be a top-30 fantasy asset in 9-category head-to-head leagues.

Derrick White (SAS – PG, SG), Current Rank: 67

2021-22 Usage Rate - 18.9%

2020-21 Usage Rate - 27.6%

White led the Spurs with a usage rate of 27.6% last season playing without DeMar DeRozan. This season, his usage rate sits at just 18.9%, and he's still ranked 67th on a per-game basis. The minutes are up, and more importantly, the assists are up by a lot (5.7) compared to a season ago (3.5). He'll continue to produce in the defensive categories (currently averaging 1.1 steals and 1.0 blocks per game).

Analysis - The lower USG% is a combination of a couple of things. One, Keldon Johnson has a USG% of 25.3% compared to last season when he had a USG% of just 19.3%. Dejounte Murray's USG% is also up from a season ago and both of those guys are averaging more shots per game this season, contributing to those higher usage rates. White's assists are up, but his shot attempts are down thus far, suppressing his usage rate. There's room to grow here for White, which is why I'd be attempting to buy low wherever possible.

DeMar DeRozan (CHI - SF, PF), Current Rank: 15

2021-22 Usage Rate - 31.2%

2020-21 Usage Rate - 26.4%

DeRozan is averaging 27 points (50.6% FG) on 19.5 shot attempts per game. The last time he's taken that many shots per game was way back in 2016 with the Raptors when he averaged a career-high 27.3 points per contest. Despite the massive usage rate, DeRozan is averaging just 1.6 turnovers per game, the lowest since his rookie season. He's also hitting almost one three-pointer per game, up from 0.3 per game last season in San Antonio. Meanwhile, Nikola Vucevic's usage rate sits at just 21.5% early in the season. Compare that to his usage rate of 28.7% a season ago in Chicago.

Analysis - There's no way DeRozan can keep this up. Sure, he's scored 30 or more points in three of his last four games, but his usage and efficiency metrics are all-time highs on a very formidable Bulls squad. Expect his usage rate to drop while Vucevic's comes up a bit. I'd be doing my best to move DeRozan while his value is at an all-time high.

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