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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC Mexico City: Moreno vs. Erceg on 03/29/25. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
The UFC is set to return to Mexico City this weekend for the UFC Mexico City fight card at Arena CDMX on March 29. The event will mark the promotion's seventh visit to Mexico City and first since February 2024. Before looking ahead, I have to look back and say that UFC London was a disappointment, to say the least, as the fights were unexpectedly boring. Moving ahead, the main event of UFC Mexico City features former two-time flyweight champion Brandon Moreno facing off against former title challenger Steve Erceg in a five-round bout. The co-main event features an exciting lightweight scrap between Manuel Torres and Drew Dober.
Flyweights Ronaldo Rodriguez and Kevin Borjas are set to open up the UFC Mexico City main card. David Martinez and Saimon Oliveira are scheduled for a bantamweight scrap, and Raul Rosas Jr. returns against Vince Morales. Also on the main card, we have former interim title challenger Kelvin Gastelum taking on surging Joe Pyfer in a three-round middleweight bout.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC Mexico City: Moreno vs. Erceg on 3/29/25. Give me a follow on X @sumpor5. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Brandon Moreno, $8.6K - vs. Steve Erceg
Former flyweight champion Moreno is scheduled to take on former title challenger Steve Erceg in the UFC Mexico City main event on Saturday. Moreno looks to win back-to-back fights, while Erceg will look to get back in the win column after losing back-to-back fights. The winner of this fight will get back in the title picture.
Spoke it into existence 🥹
The former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno returns to the Octagon at #UFCMexico! pic.twitter.com/cyR35gOMsD
— UFC (@ufc) March 27, 2025
Moreno was last seen in action in November at UFC Edmonton, where Moreno got back in the win column by defeating Amir Albazi via unanimous decision. Prior to that, Moreno was on a two-fight losing streak, losing both fights via split decision. Moreno’s second title reign ended in the summer of 2023 when he lost his belt via split decision to Alexandre Pantoja at UFC 290. 13 months ago, Moreno dropped a narrow split decision to Brandon Royval. He is currently 0-2-1 when competing at UFC events held in Mexico.
Erceg is in desperate need of a victory, as he's lost two in a row. First, he put on a gutsy performance against Pantoja but ultimately lost a decision in their May 2024 matchup. Erceg next faced Kai Kara-France in the co-main event of UFC 305, a fight that Kara-France won via first-round TKO. Prior to that, Erceg was on an 11-fight win streak. Since joining the promotion in 2023, Erceg has fought five times, going 3-2.
Moreno enters this fight with an MMA record of 22-8-2 and 10-5-2 in the UFC. He averages 3.99 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 43%. Moreno absorbs 3.53 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 60%. His grappling is solid, as he's averaging 1.59 takedowns every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 46%, and he has a takedown defense of 64%.
Erceg comes into this fight with an MMA record of 12-3. He is averaging 4.37 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. Erceg is absorbing 4.22 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 53%. In regards to his grappling and wrestling, Erceg is averaging 1.16 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 26%, and his takedown defense is 60%.
I'm confident that Moreno's got this one. Moreno is still the top contender in this division, and I don't see Erceg beating him. He is good enough to hang with Erceg in every area of the fight, and he's the faster on the feet. Erceg is a crisp striker with great timing, but he's not the best defensively. I think Moreno will push the pace, and Erceg will struggle to keep up. My prediction is that Moreno will beat Erceg via unanimous decision.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Manuel Torres, $8.2K - vs. Drew Dober
We are intentionally in for a fight of the night with this one. On Saturday, Manuel Torres is scheduled to face off against fan-favorite Drew Dober in the co-main event of UFC Mexico City. Both Torres and Dober are looking to get back in the win column.
Torres joined the promotion in 2022, earning his UFC contract after finishing Kolton Englund via first-round TKO on DWCS. He went on a three-fight winning streak, beating Frank Camacho, Nikolas Motta, and Chris Duncan, finishing all three fights in the first round. However, Torres suffered his first UFC loss in his last bout. He lost via first-round TKO to Ignacio Bahamondes, the first of his career.
We last saw Dober back in July at UFC Denver, where he faced off against surging Jean Silva. That fight ended because of a massive cut on Dober. Before that, Dober was defeated by Renato Moicano via unanimous decision. The last time Dober won a fight was in 2023 at UFC Vegas 80, where he finished Ricky Glenn via first-round TKO. Dober has lost three of his last four and seems to be losing a step.
Torres enters this fight with an MMA record of 15-3 and 3-1 in the UFC. He is averaging 7.17 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 55%. Torres absorbs 4.53 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 52%. His grappling has been elite, averaging 2.26 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.1 submission attempts during the same period. Torres has a takedown accuracy of 66% and a takedown defense of 88%.
Dober enters this fight with an MMA record of 27-14 and 14-10 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.39 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 40%. Dober absorbs 4.25 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 51%. Regarding his grappling, Dober is averaging 0.67 takedowns every 15 minutes. Dober has a takedown accuracy of 17% and a takedown defense of 56%.
At 36 years old, Dober's chin doesn't seem to be what it once was. Against Dober, Torres will have a height and reach advantage. Torres is six years younger than Dober, and six years is a big difference when it comes to recovery, endurance, and the number of punches a body can take. Torres has an even seven finishes by knockout or TKO, and seven by submission, and most of those finishes occurred in the first round. I believe Torres will bounce back by knocking out Dober in the second or third round.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Joe Pyfer, $9.3K - vs. Kelvin Gastelum
This Saturday, middleweights Joe Pyfer and Kelvin Gastelum are scheduled for a three-round bout on the main card of UFC Mexico City. Both Gastelum and Pyfer will look to start a win streak, as they have both bounced back in their last fights.
TUF 17 winner and one-time middleweight title challenger Gastelum is 3-6 in his past nine outings and hasn’t won consecutive bouts in seven years. Gastelum got back in the win column in his last fight by beating Daniel Rodriguez via unanimous decision. Before that, he lost to Sean Brady via third-round kimura submission. Known for his crisp boxing and for having one of the best chins in UFC, Gastelum has never been knocked out in 28 professional fights.
Pyfer recently rebounded from his first UFC loss with a dramatic first-round knockout over Marc-Andre Barriault. His only loss came in the fight before, against a former top-5 fighter in Jack Hermansson. The loss to Hermansson came after stoppage wins against Abdul Razak Alhassan and Gerald Meerschaert. If Pyfer finishes Gastelum, it would be a statement win for him and could earn him a ranked opponent next time around.
Gastelum enters this fight with an MMA record of 20-9 and is 13-9 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.74 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 42%. Gastelum absorbs 3.48 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 57%. His grappling is decent, averaging 1.10 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 34% and a takedown defense of 59%.
Pyfer enters this fight with an MMA record of 13-3 and 4-1 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.72 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 41%. Pyfer absorbs 3.48 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 51%. When it comes to his wrestling, Pyfer is averaging 1.45 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 41% and a takedown defense of 50%.
Gastelum has been extremely inconsistent lately, and in his last fight, he had a completely disastrous weight cut again. Although he's good all around, Gastelum always had trouble against wrestlers, and Pyfer is a solid grappler who possesses knockout power. Pyfer's cardio seems to be an issue, as was shown in his fight against Hermansson. If it doesn't find success with his striking, Pyfer will just switch to his wrestling and control Gastelum. My prediction is that Pyfer is going to outwrestle Gastelum en route to a unanimous decision victory.
