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Matt Wallach outlines his favorite week 5 waiver wire pickups and adds for deep leagues, and AL-only or NL-only fantasy baseball leagues for the 2020 MLB season.
As we continue to move along in this 2020 season and a little bit of the craziness winds down, teams are finally starting to click, and roles are being ironed out. For fantasy purposes, that means that the waiver wire is going to be busier than ever, and in deep leagues, there is still a lot of good value to be found.
This is the time for managers to be proactive.
This will be a look at players that are under 15% rostered in Yahoo leagues that are options to be considered in deeper leagues, or in the case of the Year of Coronaball, injury replacements with upside that have the possibility of sticking on rosters even beyond a few games or couple of weeks.
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Willy Adames (SS, TB)
13% Rostered, Recommended Move: Add for the long haul
Other than Austin Meadows, the only other Tampa Bay Ray with guaranteed, locked in playing time is Adames, and that means he should have good fantasy value. Adames should be rostered in more than 13% of leagues, especially with a .284/.377/.522 triple slash. The Rays are not going to be taking this bat out of the lineup any time soon.
While his profile is not a perfect one, Adames' .239 isolated power mark is easily a career-high, and he is walking at a 13% clip, which is also a career-high. He is also striking out a career-high 33.8% rate, which is definitely a little worrying, but when he gets the bat on the ball, he is doing good things. His hard-hit rate is up 13 percentage points from last season, sitting at an excellent 48.8%, which is among the best in baseball. He is also pulling the ball a whole lot more, up to 46%, which should be an explanation for the power increase. Either way, Adames is killing it right now, and definitely worth rostering in deeper leagues.
Brian Goodwin (OF, LAA)
11% Rostered, Recommended Move: Add for the long haul
Goodwin is mostly a platoon bat at this point, but the good news is that he is on the stronger end of the platoon, and should be in the lineup most days. In leagues that allow for daily lineup changes, Goodwin would be an excellent option to just slot him in there when he is playing and enjoy the results.
Goodwin is not all that exciting on the surface, but the results speak for itself. He's slashing a monstrous .302/.371/.603, resulting primarily from a super strong 17.8% barrel rate, and a ton of line drives. That barrel rate places him in the 97th percentile of all hitters, and his line drive rate is a whopping 40%. Combine that with a pull rate of nearly 50%, and we have all of the ingredients for a power breakout. Don't bet the house on this sticking, but even if he reverts to his expected stats (.506 xSLG, .351 xwOBA), he would still be a fine option, especially when he is being plucked off of waivers for free.
Aaron Hicks (OF, NYY)
11% Rostered, Recommended Move: Add and stash for a couple of weeks
In OBP leagues, Hicks is most-likely rostered, with his 22.5% walk rate and .408 OBP. That doesn't mean he is useless in standard leagues, though. Hicks already had an everyday spot hitting in the top third of the Yankees lineup, but now with the latest batch of Yankee injuries, he is going to stick there for the time being. His .236 batting average and just two home runs may look a little underwhelming, but the main appeal for rostering Hicks is for the cheap runs scored, of which he already has 11.
But there is also upside in some of his Statcast metrics. His hard-hit rate of 45.5% is the best of his career, and his expected batting average is 20 points higher than his actual one, which suggests that he has experienced some bad luck, and better batted-ball luck may be in his future. At just 11% rostered, it's worth it to find out.
Jake Cronenworth (1B/2B/SS, SD)
10% Rostered, Recommended Move: Add and stash for a couple of weeks
Cronenworth was featured here last week as well and has just seen a one percentage point increase in roster rate. It looks like some fantasy managers are asleep at the wheel because Cronenworth is still hitting well, and receiving consistent playing time.
He only has a .693 OPS in the past week, but nobody expected him to maintain his strong performance for the whole season, but one mild slump is not enough of a reason to let him go. The reasons why he was considered for addition still apply here. He's still not striking out much at just 15.5%, his average exit velocity of 90.3 miles-per-hour still looks good, and he is still hitting a lot of line-drives. He started the last three games against left-handes pitchers, so playing time does not look like an issue right now, especially with Tommy Pham hitting the injured list. Individual fantasy team depth will likely dictate if he's in starting lineups for managers, but as a nice, versatile, bench piece with upside, Cronenworth should remain a solid option.
Todd Frazier (1B/3B, TEX)
10% Rostered, Recommended Move: Add for the long haul
Another player that was recommended last week that makes another appearance here is Frazier. Recommended for his boring, yet solid production, he is somehow not more rostered than last week, but has actually seen his roster rate drop from 11% to 10%, which looks a little confusing.
It doesn't have to do with performance, as Frazier contributed a nice .286/.412/.429 line in the past week and his overall line still sits at a solid .303/.387/.500. He did miss two games in the past week though, but he is back and has been sitting in the middle of the Rangers lineup all season, and it doesn't look like he'll be bumped any time soon. Frazier is not all that exciting, but that means that he should remain under-rostered, and can provide nice stability to a lot of fantasy teams.
Erik Gonzalez (SS/3B/OF, PIT)
3% Rostered, Recommended Move: Ride the hot streak
There haven't been many bright spots for the Pittsburgh Pirates so far this season, but the performance of Gonzalez through 43 plate appearances is one of them. Gonzalez had a 59 wRC+ a season ago. This year, he is rocking a 144 mark, on the back of a .349/.349/.558 slash line. Yes, his on-base percentage is the exact same as his batting average, which means he hasn't walked a single time yet, which is a little concerning but the rest of his performance has been purely great.
Gonzalez is towards the top of nearly every offensive Statcast category at the moment. The lowest Statcast metric of his in terms of percentile ranks is his barrel rate, which is in the 85th percentile. That shows just how strong the rest of his game is. Most notably, his hard-hit rate is in the 98th percentile. He's hitting the ball hard, and keeping more ball off the ground, which all looks very good and is a good recipe to follow to get good results.
Look, don't expect this to last. Nobody should be claiming Gonzalez as this type of hitter on a true-talent basis yet after just 43 plate appearances, but take him now through this hot streak. As an added bonus, he has multi-eligibility, which is always nice. So many players are getting injured, so as a short-term fill-in through this incredible run, Gonzalez is a good option.
Looking Back on Last Week's Picks
At the end of each week's post, we'll end with a brief look back on last week's picks along with a brief recommendation on what to do with the said player for the future.
Asdrubal Cabrera (2B/3B, WAS)
Last week: 12% rostered. This Week: 28% rostered.
It looks like the secret is finally out on Cabrera. After doing nothing but hit through the early part of the season and remain under-rostered, Cabrera finally saw a surge in roster rate and is now ineligible for selection here, and is not likely to return anytime soon. He is still hitting extremely well and has gotten a bump to the number three or four spots in the Nationals lineup. As long as he's hitting, you're not dropping him. Current Recommendation: Hold.
Touki Toussaint (P, ATL)
Last week: 10% rostered. This Week: 7% rostered.
It wasn't a great week for Toussaint. He rightly struggled against the Yankees, but he also struggled against what should have been the easier matchup against the Nationals, as he walked six, and allowed four runs in just three innings. His SIERA and xFIP are still more encouraging at 4.11 and 4.14, respectively but if you want to drop him, it's completely understandable. The pitching landscape isn't any clearer right now though, and the reasons thatmade him an attractive target are still there. If you have the depth, then it's definitely a drop, but watch for a favorable matchup, as he could come in handy. Current Recommendation: Drop.
Jesse Winker (OF, CIN)
Last week: 5% rostered. This week: 53% rostered.
Hopefully, you didn't miss the boat on this one. A lot of managers overreacted and dropped Winker after a slow start, but he is making them look like fools right now. Winker looks great at the plate and we all know that. Not much needs to be said here, but it is unfortunate that the Reds are having some games postponed due to COVID-19 right as this hot streak for Winker is happening. It's tough, but you're definitely not dropping him. Current Recommendation: Hold.
Dominic Smith (1B/OF, NYM)
Last week: 3% rostered. This week: 62% rostered.
Another player that is scorching hot right now, Smith saw a whopping 59% jump in roster rate this week on the back of a great week where he hit .393/.469/.964 with four home runs in seven games. An out-of-this-world performance for Smith. Like Winker, not much needs to be said here. He is not leaving the Mets lineup anytime soon, and he is not leaving yours either. Current Recommendation: Hold.
More 2020 Fantasy Baseball Advice
