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Contact Rate Risers and Fallers - Week 7

Welcome back, RotoBallers! We are now in the midst of the MLB season, so it's a good time to look at some key offensive trends. Among those trends we will follow each week is contact rate. A sudden increase or decrease in contact rate could signal the beginning of an extended hot or cold streak, leading to important waiver wire choices or start/sit decisions for fantasy baseball managers.

Each week we will look at a few players on each side of the coin and compare their previous week's contact rate with their actual performance over the course of the 2017 season. We do this because we care about you, the fantasy player.

Here are some of the top contact rate risers and fallers for Week 7 of the fantasy baseball season. For a complete list, check out our premium tool, as explained below.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Contact Rate Risers and Fallers - Premium Tool

Identifying top contact rate risers and fallers for each week can help you spot the best pickups before your competition. RotoBaller's Premium Contact Rate Risers and Fallers tool has you covered every day. Here's a glimpse at one of our advanced tools:

This type of data is available as part of our Premium MLB Subscription. Don't settle for basic stats and surface-level advice from other sites. RotoBaller brings you advanced statistics and professional analysis that you need to win your fantasy leagues and DFS games, because we're ballers just like you. We are your secret weapon!

 

Contact Rate Risers

Justin Bour (1B, MIA) - 90% contact rate last seven days (+19%)

If Bour's name looks familiar in this space, it should. Just two weeks ago, he shows signs of breaking out with a huge six-RBI game and was mentioned as a contact riser, as well as a corner infield waiver wire pickup. Bour has continued to improve to the point he is our biggest riser of the week. What's changed? He's now hitting better against lefties (.273) than righties (.252), although only one of his eight homers have come against left-handers. Bour is on fire in May, so don't hesitate to use him as a streaming option while he's hot. He is available in 88% of Yahoo leagues.

Joc Pederson (OF, LAD) - 91% contact rate last seven days (+14%)

Pederson is another left-handed slugger who is making much better contact, although with far worse results. He is cutting down on the strikeouts, but is only hitting .192 in the past week. He does hit lefties worse than righties, but only by 34 points this season. He is performing far worse in terms of his home/road splits, with a .184 average at home oddly enough. This is where I remind you that none of that matters if he doesn't start going deep really soon, because Pederson hasn't homered since Opening Day. Without power stats, it doesn't really matter how much contact he is or isn't making when it's all basically long flyouts.

Ian Desmond (OF, COL) - 83% contact rate last seven days (+13%)

It's a bummer that Desmond still hasn't claimed 1B eligibility in Yahoo leagues and might not ever see the position if Mark Reynolds keep producing. Still, at least he's coming around with the bat now that he has gotten to shake off some rust. A rise in contact rate may be deceiving since he barely has two weeks of at-bats under his belt, but it's definitely worth noting that he's hitting .360 in the past week. Desmond hasn't taken full advantage of the home cookin' at Coors Field yet, but he has hit safely in six of the last seven games with a pair of doubles, two RBI and a steal. Now that the preseason hype has died down on this free agent acquisition, it could be time to invest cheaply.

Jonathan Lucroy (C/1B, TEX) - 100% contact rate last seven days (+8%)

You'll find Lucroy's name at the bottom of this week's risers list because his eight-point jump wasn't as high as several others. The number 100 does jump off the page, however, as Lucroy seems to finally have found his All-Star form. It's been a week since Lucroy struck out and he's only done so once in the last 13 games. He's now hitting .361 in the month of May. The power hasn't come around quite yet, mainly because he's at a career high 53.8% ground-ball rate, but that should normalize over time. As the weather heats up in Texas (it already has, trust me), so will Lucroy. Now might be the time to buy-low before he starts leaving the yard at a higher rate too.

 

Contact Rate Fallers

Gary Sanchez (C, NYY) - 53% contact rate last seven days (-19%)

The return of El Santino was cause for excitement, especially when he drove in five runs in his first week back from injury. Nine strikeouts in his last four games show a return to youthful form, however, and his .400 slugging percentage and .140 ISO are not what fantasy owners were looking for. There could be hope, as he homered on Tuesday. Now's the time when Sanchez owners will have their faith truly tested. Are we getting last year's Sanchez back, or more of this year's inconsistency and injury? Resist selling before you get a bigger sample size.

Mitch Moreland (1B, BOS) - 62% contact rate last seven days (-9%)

A hot start has now turned into a cold stretch. Moreland may still help owners in OBP leagues due to his strong 13.6% BB% and he is slightly more useful in points league thanks to 15 doubles. He's stuck at two homers, however, and things could get worse since his .333 BABIP is 44 points above his career average. There could be a 20-HR looming still, but those who saw his early April stats as a harbinger of things to come may be changing their tune.

Andrew McCutchen (OF, PIT) - 71% contact rate last seven days (-8%)

McCutchen was and is still one of the most debated players in fantasy baseball. Surely all his skills haven't eroded, but he isn't helping his case with a declining contact rate that is below league average at 78.6%. To be fair, he's never had a high overall contact rate and his overall plate discipline doesn't look much different than his MVP seasons. It's the lack of hard contact and career-low 14.5% line drive rate that is leading to less productivity among the contact he does make. Cutch will still deliver 20-25 HR and his third stolen base the other day even provides hope for some speed value, but the averages likely aren't coming back.

Starlin Castro (2B, NYY)73% contact rate last seven days (-8%)

Castro's historical second-half woes have already been documented by myself two weeks ago and fellow RotoBaller @hayudi18 even earlier. It may be premature to say he's on the verge of collapse but there are signs he's slowing down. Castro is hitting .227 with six strikeouts and no walks in the past week, although he does have a homer and four RBI. If you've been riding him this far, you may want to wait a bit longer but his trade value likely won't get any higher than it was a week ago.

 

More Risers and Fallers




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Caris LeVert

Upgraded to Available Tuesday
Ron Holland II

Remains Out Against Kings
Robert Williams III

Sits Out Tuesday's Game
Jonathan Isaac

Active Tuesday Night
Javon Small

Returns to Grizzlies Lineup Tuesday
Tristan da Silva

Remains Sidelined Against Portland
Goga Bitadze

Out Against Portland
Vince Williams Jr.

Misses Third Consecutive Game
Cedric Coward

Unavailable on Tuesday Night
Aaron Wiggins

Will Play Against Spurs
Ryan O'Hearn

Pirates Agree on Two-Year Deal
Grayson Allen

Absent for Third Consecutive Game
Zach LaVine

to Miss at Least One More Week
Victor Wembanyama

Ready to Take on Thunder
Dwight Powell

Misses Tuesday's Game Due to Illness
Jaden Hardy

Starting on Tuesday Night
DK Metcalf

has Two-Game Suspension Upheld
Klay Thompson

Sits Out Tuesday's Action
Philip Rivers

to Remain the Starter in Week 17
Jonas Valančiūnas

Jonas Valanciunas Active Against Mavericks
Peyton Watson

Ready to Face Mavericks
Jaden McDaniels

Out on Tuesday Evening
Jordan Poole

Herbert Jones Out Tuesday
Max Christie

Still Out on Tuesday Night
George Kittle

Dealing With Mid-to-Low Ankle Sprain
Viktor Arvidsson

a Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Ryan Leonard

Available Tuesday
Tom Wilson

in Danger of Missing First Game of the Season
Phillip Danault

Makes Second Canadiens Debut Tuesday
Collin Graf

Available Against Golden Knights
Jack Eichel

Misses Fourth Straight Game
Vince Dunn

Won't Play Tuesday
Deshaun Watson

Will Not be Activated Off PUP List, 2025 Season is Over
J.J. McCarthy

Ruled Out for Week 17
Rome Odunze

Expected to Return This Season
Christian McCaffrey

Another Monster Game for Christian McCaffrey in Week 16
Brock Purdy

Throws for Five Touchdowns in Week 16
TreVeyon Henderson

in Concussion Protocol, Week 17 Status Unclear
George Kittle

Week 17 Availability in Question?
CFB

Jeff Brohm, Eli Drinkwitz "Names of Interest" for Michigan Head Coach
Timothy Liljegren

to Miss Second Straight Game Tuesday
Will Smith

Out Week-to-Week
Jaccob Slavin

Placed on Injured Reserve, Out Week-to-Week
Seth Jarvis

Considered Week-to-Week
Darren Raddysh

Totals Three Points in Monday's Win
Mason Marchment

Scores Twice Monday
Vince Dunn

Injured in Monday's Win
Rashee Rice

Still in Concussion Protocol, Estimated as Non-Participant on Monday
J.J. McCarthy

Listed as DNP on Monday Ahead of Week 17
Ilya Sorokin

to Miss Tuesday's Game
DK Metcalf

Suspended for Two Games Following Confrontation with Fan
Christian Dvorak

Returns to Flyers Lineup
Elias Pettersson

Still Out Monday
Brandon Montour

to Miss Four Weeks After Hand Surgery
Miles Wood

Available Against Kings
Zach Werenski

Ruled Out Monday
Leo Carlsson

Won't Play Monday
CFB

Byrum Brown Entering Transfer Portal
CFB

Bobby Petrino Joining Bill Belichick as North Carolina's Offensive Coordinator
TreVeyon Henderson

Exits Week 16 Victory with Head Injury
Lamar Jackson

Questionable to Return in Week 16 with Back Injury
Willson Contreras

Shipped to the Red Sox
Quinshon Judkins

Done for the Season with Broken Leg
Nick Chubb

Officially Active Against Raiders in Week 16
Gardner Minshew

Won't Return in Week 16
Woody Marks

Officially Inactive for Week 16
Quinshon Judkins

Carted Off in Week 16, Ruled Out with Apparent Leg Injury
Tua Tagovailoa

Dolphins Hope to Trade Tua Tagovailoa in the Offseason
Brandon Lowe

Pirates Acquire Brandon Lowe in Three-Team Trade
Shane Baz

Orioles Acquire Shane Baz From the Rays
CFB

Darian Mensah Returning to Duke Next Season
CFB

Josh Hoover Linked to Indiana in Transfer Portal
CFB

Arch Manning Agrees to Reduced Compensation for 2026 Season
Michael King

Padres Bring Michael King Back on Three-Year Deal
Logan Webb

Will Pitch for Team USA in World Baseball Classic
Tarik Skubal

Joins Team USA for World Baseball Classic
CFB

Will Muschamp Becoming Next Texas Defensive Coordinator
CFB

Beau Pribula Set to Enter Transfer Portal

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