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Contact Rate Risers and Fallers - Week 7

Welcome back, RotoBallers! We are now in the midst of the MLB season, so it's a good time to look at some key offensive trends. Among those trends we will follow each week is contact rate. A sudden increase or decrease in contact rate could signal the beginning of an extended hot or cold streak, leading to important waiver wire choices or start/sit decisions for fantasy baseball managers.

Each week we will look at a few players on each side of the coin and compare their previous week's contact rate with their actual performance over the course of the 2017 season. We do this because we care about you, the fantasy player.

Here are some of the top contact rate risers and fallers for Week 7 of the fantasy baseball season. For a complete list, check out our premium tool, as explained below.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Contact Rate Risers and Fallers - Premium Tool

Identifying top contact rate risers and fallers for each week can help you spot the best pickups before your competition. RotoBaller's Premium Contact Rate Risers and Fallers tool has you covered every day. Here's a glimpse at one of our advanced tools:

This type of data is available as part of our Premium MLB Subscription. Don't settle for basic stats and surface-level advice from other sites. RotoBaller brings you advanced statistics and professional analysis that you need to win your fantasy leagues and DFS games, because we're ballers just like you. We are your secret weapon!

 

Contact Rate Risers

Justin Bour (1B, MIA) - 90% contact rate last seven days (+19%)

If Bour's name looks familiar in this space, it should. Just two weeks ago, he shows signs of breaking out with a huge six-RBI game and was mentioned as a contact riser, as well as a corner infield waiver wire pickup. Bour has continued to improve to the point he is our biggest riser of the week. What's changed? He's now hitting better against lefties (.273) than righties (.252), although only one of his eight homers have come against left-handers. Bour is on fire in May, so don't hesitate to use him as a streaming option while he's hot. He is available in 88% of Yahoo leagues.

Joc Pederson (OF, LAD) - 91% contact rate last seven days (+14%)

Pederson is another left-handed slugger who is making much better contact, although with far worse results. He is cutting down on the strikeouts, but is only hitting .192 in the past week. He does hit lefties worse than righties, but only by 34 points this season. He is performing far worse in terms of his home/road splits, with a .184 average at home oddly enough. This is where I remind you that none of that matters if he doesn't start going deep really soon, because Pederson hasn't homered since Opening Day. Without power stats, it doesn't really matter how much contact he is or isn't making when it's all basically long flyouts.

Ian Desmond (OF, COL) - 83% contact rate last seven days (+13%)

It's a bummer that Desmond still hasn't claimed 1B eligibility in Yahoo leagues and might not ever see the position if Mark Reynolds keep producing. Still, at least he's coming around with the bat now that he has gotten to shake off some rust. A rise in contact rate may be deceiving since he barely has two weeks of at-bats under his belt, but it's definitely worth noting that he's hitting .360 in the past week. Desmond hasn't taken full advantage of the home cookin' at Coors Field yet, but he has hit safely in six of the last seven games with a pair of doubles, two RBI and a steal. Now that the preseason hype has died down on this free agent acquisition, it could be time to invest cheaply.

Jonathan Lucroy (C/1B, TEX) - 100% contact rate last seven days (+8%)

You'll find Lucroy's name at the bottom of this week's risers list because his eight-point jump wasn't as high as several others. The number 100 does jump off the page, however, as Lucroy seems to finally have found his All-Star form. It's been a week since Lucroy struck out and he's only done so once in the last 13 games. He's now hitting .361 in the month of May. The power hasn't come around quite yet, mainly because he's at a career high 53.8% ground-ball rate, but that should normalize over time. As the weather heats up in Texas (it already has, trust me), so will Lucroy. Now might be the time to buy-low before he starts leaving the yard at a higher rate too.

 

Contact Rate Fallers

Gary Sanchez (C, NYY) - 53% contact rate last seven days (-19%)

The return of El Santino was cause for excitement, especially when he drove in five runs in his first week back from injury. Nine strikeouts in his last four games show a return to youthful form, however, and his .400 slugging percentage and .140 ISO are not what fantasy owners were looking for. There could be hope, as he homered on Tuesday. Now's the time when Sanchez owners will have their faith truly tested. Are we getting last year's Sanchez back, or more of this year's inconsistency and injury? Resist selling before you get a bigger sample size.

Mitch Moreland (1B, BOS) - 62% contact rate last seven days (-9%)

A hot start has now turned into a cold stretch. Moreland may still help owners in OBP leagues due to his strong 13.6% BB% and he is slightly more useful in points league thanks to 15 doubles. He's stuck at two homers, however, and things could get worse since his .333 BABIP is 44 points above his career average. There could be a 20-HR looming still, but those who saw his early April stats as a harbinger of things to come may be changing their tune.

Andrew McCutchen (OF, PIT) - 71% contact rate last seven days (-8%)

McCutchen was and is still one of the most debated players in fantasy baseball. Surely all his skills haven't eroded, but he isn't helping his case with a declining contact rate that is below league average at 78.6%. To be fair, he's never had a high overall contact rate and his overall plate discipline doesn't look much different than his MVP seasons. It's the lack of hard contact and career-low 14.5% line drive rate that is leading to less productivity among the contact he does make. Cutch will still deliver 20-25 HR and his third stolen base the other day even provides hope for some speed value, but the averages likely aren't coming back.

Starlin Castro (2B, NYY)73% contact rate last seven days (-8%)

Castro's historical second-half woes have already been documented by myself two weeks ago and fellow RotoBaller @hayudi18 even earlier. It may be premature to say he's on the verge of collapse but there are signs he's slowing down. Castro is hitting .227 with six strikeouts and no walks in the past week, although he does have a homer and four RBI. If you've been riding him this far, you may want to wait a bit longer but his trade value likely won't get any higher than it was a week ago.

 

More Risers and Fallers




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Chris Boucher

Active Thursday vs. Kings
Jalen Duren

Won't Return Thursday After Ankle Injury
Ryan Kalkbrenner

Ruled Out Again Friday
Josh Hart

Sidelined for Fourth Straight Game
Kyshawn George

to Miss Fourth Straight Game Friday
Joel Embiid

Cleared to Play Thursday vs. Mavericks
Jonas Valančiūnas

Jonas Valanciunas Ruled Out for At Least Four Weeks
Bo Bichette

Yankees Showing Interest in Bo Bichette
D'Angelo Russell

Ruled Out Thursday With Illness
George Kittle

Listed as Questionable for Week 18
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Active Versus Nets
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Trending Towards Playing
Clint Capela

Steven Adams and Clint Capela Sidelined Thursday
Miles Wood

Blue Jackets Place Miles Wood on Injured Reserve
Dak Prescott

May Not Play Full Game in Week 18
Conor Garland

to Miss One Week
Egor Demin

Won't Suit Up Against Houston
Marco Rossi

to Miss at Least One Week
Ace Bailey

Still Out on Thursday Night
Tari Eason

Active on Thursday
Yegor Chinakhov

Set for Penguins Debut Thursday
Lauri Markkanen

Ruled Out on Thursday
Tanner McKee

Will Start for Eagles in Week 18
Shayne Gostisbehere

Misses Third Consecutive Game Thursday
Keyonte George

Unavailable on Thursday
Michael Porter Jr.

Out on Thursday
Auston Matthews

Returns From One-Game Absence
Josh Allen

Trending Towards Resting in Week 18
William Nylander

Remains Out Thursday
Lamar Jackson

Will Officially Return in Week 18
Tobias Harris

Won't Suit Up Against Miami
Lauri Markkanen

on the Injury Report for Thursday Night
Keyonte George

Battling an Illness, Might Miss Thursday's Game
Jusuf Nurkić

Jusuf Nurkic Won't Play on Thursday Evening
Houston Astros

Astros Sign Tatsuya Imai to Three-Year Deal
Jordan Love

Clears Concussion Protocol, Won't Start in Week 18
George Kittle

"Absolutely" Expects to Play in Week 18
Clayton Tune

to Start for Packers in Week 18
Chris Olave

Ruled Out for Week 18
Tom Wilson

Wraps Up 2025 With Gordie Howe Hat Trick
Valeri Nichushkin

Nets Second Career Hat Trick
Frank Vatrano

to Miss Six Weeks With Shoulder Injury
Conor Sheary

Noah Laba Exit With Injuries Wednesday
Brayden McNabb

Suffers Upper-Body Injury Wednesday
Miles Wood

Exits Early Wednesday
Gavin Brindley

Sustains Upper-Body Injury
Michael Porter Jr.

Battling Illness, Questionable Thursday
Davante Adams

Not Expected to Play in Week 18
Geno Smith

Won't Play in Week 18
Aaron Rodgers

Considering Playing Beyond 2025?
Sean Monahan

Sits Out Wednesday's Game
Zach Werenski

Misses Fourth Straight Game Wednesday
Dougie Hamilton

Questionable Wednesday
Radko Gudas

Expected to Remain Out Wednesday
Stefon Diggs

Expected to Play in Week 18
Ilya Lyubushkin

Back From One-Game Absence Wednesday
Alex Lyon

to Miss "Bit of Time"
Erik Cernak

Rejoins Lightning Lineup Wednesday
Christian McCaffrey

Trending to Play in Week 18
Jalen Hurts

Eagles Expected to Rest Jalen Hurts, Most Starters in Week 18
George Kittle

49ers Will be "Very Surprised" if George Kittle Doesn't Play on Saturday
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Ruled Out for Regular-Season Finale
CFB

Lane Kiffin Interested in Sam Leavitt, Brendan Sorsby at LSU
CFB

Deuce Knight Officially Entering Transfer Portal
CFB

Kewan Lacy Expected to Be Full-Go Against Georgia
Stefon Diggs

Facing Strangulation, Assault Charges
CFB

Chip Kelly Named Northwestern Offensive Coordinator
Riley Leonard

Will Start Against the Texans
Bijan Robinson

Explodes for 229 Total Yards, Two Touchdowns on Monday Night
CFB

Penn State Working to Hire D'Anton Lynn as Next Defensive Coordinator
CFB

Omar Cooper Expected to be Full-Go for Rose Bowl
CFB

Marcus Freeman Staying with Notre Dame for 2026 Season
CFB

Star Wideout Cam Coleman Entering Transfer Portal
CFB

Jay Hill Expected to be Next Michigan Defensive Coordinator

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