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Mike Fanelli gives his fantasy football bold predictions for Week 13 of the NFL season, giving fantasy players something to think about when setting their lineups.
Week 13 is here, and I’m back with another edition of fantasy football bold predictions. This week’s list of bold predictions will include Tua Tagovailoa, Najee Harris, Bijan Robinson, Mike Evans, and Evan Engram.
Every week, I will provide some fun and bold fantasy football predictions. While these bold predictions aren’t the most likely outcomes, they are things I believe could happen this week.
Let’s look at my five bold predictions for Week 13 of the 2023 NFL season.
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Tua Tagovailoa…
Has four passing touchdowns and is the QB1 for the week
After struggling to stay healthy early in his career, Tagovailoa hasn’t missed a game this year. More importantly, the former Alabama star has been outstanding for fantasy players. He is the QB13 for the season, averaging 17.4 fantasy points per game. However, Tagovailoa has had multiple explosive weeks this season, especially against poor defenses.
The former Alabama star has completed 69.8% of his pass attempts for 3,177 yards and 22 touchdowns, compared to 10 interceptions. He has thrown fewer than two passing touchdowns in 45.5% of the games this year. However, most of those matchups were against talented defenses. Meanwhile, the fourth-year quarterback has totaled three or more passing touchdowns in 36.4% of the games this season.
More importantly, Tagovailoa has the best fantasy football matchup possible in Week 13. The Washington Commanders have the worst pass defense in the league. They have surrendered 21.7 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, the most in the NFL. Furthermore, opposing quarterbacks have thrown four or more touchdowns against the Commanders in 25% of the games this year, including Dak Prescott last week. Tagovailoa is a must-start against an awful Washington defense.
Najee Harris…
And Jaylen Warren are top-10 running backs
Unfortunately, the Pittsburgh Steelers backfield has been frustrating for fantasy players. Some believe Warren is the clear-cut better running back. Yet, the Steelers continue to feature both players in the backfield. Warren is the RB25 for the year, averaging 10.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Meanwhile, Harris is the RB27, averaging 9.5 fantasy points per game this season. Thankfully, both players have a massive upside in Week 13.
Last week, Harris had the only Pittsburgh touchdown in the win over the Cincinnati Bengals. He had 15 rushing attempts for 99 yards and 15.9 fantasy points, averaging 6.6 yards per rushing attempt. By comparison, Warren had 13 rushing attempts for 49 yards and 5.7 fantasy points, averaging only 3.8 yards per rushing attempt against Cincinnati. Yet, Warren was the far superior running back two weeks ago against the Cleveland Browns, totaling 129 rushing yards compared to 35 for Harris. Thankfully, both Steelers running backs can be top-10 guys this week.
The Arizona Cardinals have surrendered 26.2 fantasy points per game to running backs, the second-most in the leagues. They have given up the second-most rushing touchdowns (12), the most receiving touchdowns (six), and the second-most rushing yards (1,445) to running backs this year. Last week, Kyren Williams and Royce Freeman were both top-15 running backs against Arizona despite Matthew Stafford having four passing touchdowns. Expect both Pittsburgh running backs to feast on Sunday.
Bijan Robinson…
Has over 140 rushing yards and is the overall RB1 against the New York Jets
Robinson has been a fantasy superstar as a rookie. He is the RB6, averaging 12.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. The former Texas Longhorn superstar has 141 rushing attempts for 703 yards and three touchdowns, averaging five yards per attempt. Furthermore, Robinson also has 32 receptions for 240 receiving yards and three touchdowns this year.
Yet, fantasy players rightly have been frustrated with Arthur Smith all season. The superstar rookie averaged only 11.4 rushing attempts per game over the first nine weeks, totaling more than 14 only once. However, Robinson has averaged 19 rushing attempts for 93 yards, one touchdown, and 21.5 fantasy points per game over his past two contests. He accounted for 56% of the backfield touches in those two games. More importantly, the rookie has an excellent matchup in Week 13.
The New York Jets have surrendered 22.3 fantasy points per game to running backs this year, the sixth-most in the NFL. Furthermore, they’ve given up the sixth-most rushing yards to running backs (107.2 per game) in 2023. More importantly, the Jets have surrendered at least 119 rushing yards to running backs in four of the past five games. New York gave up 166 rushing yards to the Miami Dolphins backfield last week. Don’t be surprised if Robinson has a massive performance.
Mike Evans…
Finishes the week outside the top 24 wide receivers
Many thought Evans and Chris Godwin would struggle this year after losing Tom Brady to retirement in the offseason. While Godwin has been awful for fantasy players, Evans has been outstanding. He is the WR8 for the season, averaging 15.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. The former Texas A&M star has been a scoring machine, finding the end zone nine times this year. Only Tyreek Hill has more receiving touchdowns than Evans.
Last week, the star wide receiver had six receptions on nine targets for 70 receiving yards and 22 fantasy points. More importantly, Evans had two receiving touchdowns, a season-high. He has found the end zone at least once in 72.7% of the games this season, including three consecutive contests. Unfortunately, the veteran wide receiver won’t have a receiving touchdown Sunday against the Carolina Panthers.
The NFC South division rivals have an impressive pass defense. They have held wide receivers to 22.7 fantasy points per game, the fifth-fewest in the NFL. The Panthers surrendered only seven receiving touchdowns to wide receivers this season, the sixth-fewest in the league, including only one since Week 6. More importantly, they’ve shut down opposing No. 1 wide receivers since the bye week, giving up only 45 receiving yards and 8.7 fantasy points per game. Evans’ recent hot streak comes to an end on Sunday.
Evan Engram…
Outscores Travis Kelce and is the TE1 in Week 13
After finishing the 2022 season playing well, Engram was a popular mid-range TE1 draft pick this year. The veteran tight end has been solid. He is the TE12 for the season, averaging 7.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Engram has 64 receptions on 82 targets for 524 receiving yards for the year, ranking first in receptions, second in targets, and third in receiving yards.
However, he is sixth in receiving touchdowns with zero. The veteran tight end has the most targets in the NFL this season without scoring a touchdown (82). The next closest player in targets without scoring a receiving touchdown this year -- Jonathan Mingo (55). Meanwhile, Engram had four receiving touchdowns in 2022. Yet, fantasy players should start the former Ole Miss star Monday night.
The Cincinnati Bengals have surrendered 12.3 fantasy points per game to tight ends this season, the second-most in the NFL. They have given up at least 11.1 fantasy points to tight ends in 60% of their games since the bye week and 63.6% of their matchups for the year. More importantly, the Bengals surrendered a season-high 20.1 fantasy points to the Pittsburgh Steelers tight ends last week despite not giving up a touchdown. Don’t be shocked if Engram has his first touchdown of the year against Cincinnati.
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