RADIO
Richard King takes an in-depth look at the skill position players (QB, RB, WR, TE) for the Jacksonville Jaguars to assess their fantasy football value for the second half of the 2018 NFL season.
Every offseason, I believe in the hype that this might be the Jacksonville Jaguars' season and that I want to own part of that team. At this point of the season, I think we can safely say we know what we have and it's not nearly as good as we hoped.
Last season, the Jags had a great blueprint for winning. They were going to grind you down with the run game with Leonard Fournette and then put their elite defense to work stopping you from passing the ball with shutdown cornerback duo Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye, and come after your running game or quarterback with a stable of options including Calais Campbell, Yannick Ngakoue and Malik Jackson. That, however, hasn't translated to success for the team this season and you are likely wondering why they haven't been able to hit those highs that they did previously.
With QB Blake Bortles on shaky ground and Fournette missing the majority of the season, how should we view these players as well as the talented but inconsistent wide receiver corps?
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Is There Still Hope in the First Coast?
Quarterback
Blake Bortles is not an elite talent - that much is clear. The fact that the team decided to pivot away from him midway through a game to throw in backup Cody Kessler says it all. The team management is starting to lose their patience with Bortles and there are trade rumors flying around that the Jaguars are in the mix to try and acquire someone new to lead their offense. However, while Bortles has obviously struggled so far this season, he is not the sole cause of the offensive struggles. The quarterback hasn't been protected as much as he was in the previous season. After Week 7 in 2017, Bortles was fully involved and had been sacked 11 times, however, this season he has been sacked 14 times so far. Bortles has been asked to do more this season- throwing the ball 249 times this season, which is around 50 more attempts compared to the previous season. Bortles is by no means blame-free but he isn't the only culprit for the team's weaker fantasy output.
Running Backs
Leonard Fournette's absence is one obvious reason why Bortles has been asked to do more on offense. Fournette is a major part of the plan for the team's attack and with him missing time with his hamstring injury it has affected the way the team operates. This time last year, the Jaguars had rushed the ball 238 times for 1,183 yards. This season they have rushed the ball 162 times for just 690 yards. Fournette himself had rushed 130 times for 596 yards, so clearly he was a difference-maker. Currently, there is no fixed timeline for his return and with the team adding Carlos Hyde this week it might be even longer until Fournette sees a sizeable amount of work. This assumes the team is even in playoff contention and not wanting to just let him rest for next season. The Jags have rolled out T.J. Yeldon mainly in Fournette's place, but while he was able to show flashes previously he hasn't been able to shoulder the workload that the offense requires.
Wide Receivers
The Jaguars have had to change the way they have previously run their attack with Fournette out of the lineup and that is most prevalent with the wide receiver group this season. The team has over 300 more receiving yards this season and 28 more receptions, which on the face of it should mean that the team has effective options for fantasy owners. However, it has been a tough ride for the group so far this season. Dede Westbrook currently leads the way with 67.9 points in half PPR formats, compared to Allen Hurns who had accrued 59.5 points at this point in the season last year, but the uncertainty as to which receiver is the best to use in any matchup means that fantasy owners have had constant selection headaches this season. The Jaguars have three players that have scored over 50 points this season (Westbrook, Keelan Cole and Donte Moncrief) compared to just Hurns last year. The wide receivers group relies upon the team giving Bortles the ball in hand, which as mentioned earlier has not proven effective this season.
DST
Coming into this season the Jaguars were the highest ranked DST everywhere, which was due to the pressure that the team was able to bring to opposing quarterbacks. The Jaguars had amassed 33 sacks, 10 interceptions and six forced fumbles by this point last season also adding four defensive touchdowns. That has not translated itself to this season, with the team having less than half of that production in every category (15 sacks, three interceptions, and two fumbles), one major part of that is that the team has just had to be on the field a lot more than they were previously. The team hasn't hugely improved or regressed in the number of yards that it has given up- it's just not getting the turnovers and sacks than it did previously. The unit is supremely talented but has found itself on the field more than they would like with Fournette missing from the running game the Jaguars have not been able to command the clock in the same way as they have done previously.
Conclusion and Outlook
The team was able to be successful with the supremely talented running back Leonard Fournette on the field. That was the plan coming into the season, which was shown in the fact that the team attempted to bring him back earlier from his hamstring injury than they would have been hoped, causing it to flare up and force the running back to miss more time. The team seems as though it doesn't have an effective Plan B, so as long as Fournette is off the field the Jaguars are likely to struggle in each element of the game. Hyde may be a decent stopgap but he is no Fournette. With Blake Bortles' confidence shaken and numerous questions surrounding this team, the majority of their players, wide receivers in particular, should be avoided for fantasy purposes.
