Arizona Fall League 2021 Wrap Up

December 4, 2021

A review of the 2021 Arizona Fall League from a Fantasy Baseball perspective. Which top prospects had the best performances and which failed to impress?

The Arizona Fall League wrapped up on November 20th with a Mesa Solar Sox championship over the Suprise Saguaros.

In this space, we will review the 2021 Arizona Fall League by highlighting players who were the most notable risers and disappointments based on their performance from a fantasy baseball perspective.

Many of these prospects won't make an impact in the majors this coming season but they are among the best players in the next generation of prospects. Dynasty league managers should make it a priority to become familiar with these players.

Risers

Below are players who improved their proverbial stock:

Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox, 1B

Triston Casas was a bit of a head-scratcher to me, to be honest. He hit .372 with a .495 OBP and .982 OPS despite hitting just a single home run in 95 plate appearances. If you read up on reports, people are raving about Triston Casas. That said, someone that's supposed to have 30-40 home run power who hits one home run in 78 at-bats certainly raises an eyebrow. He profiles as a corner-infield power bat and is expected to make his Major League debut in 2022 for the Boston Red Sox.

Nelson Velazquez, Chicago Cubs, OF

Nelson Velazquez, the MVP of the 2021 Arizona Fall League, had a big breakout this fall.  He hit .385, with a .480 OBP, a 1.191 OPS, and a league-leading nine home runs. His performance likely played a role in getting added to the 40-man roster last week, ensuring he will not be selected by another team in the Rule 5 Draft. According to the MLB's prospect rankings, he is the No. 29 prospect in the Cubs system.

In 2021, Velazquez played in both High-A and Double-A. At High-A, he hit 12 home runs, stole 12 bases in 69 games while batting .261 with a .321 OBP, and a 33.7% strikeout rate. At Double-A, he hit eight home runs, stole five bases while batting .290 with a .358 OBP and a 25.5% strikeout rate over the course of just 34 games.

I do not know what his fantasy potential is, but he's certainly a name I will keep an eye on this spring and next season in the minor leagues.

#Cubs prospect Nelson Velázquez is the Arizona Fall League MVP 💪🏼

Velázquez led the AFL in home runs and OPS. Also ranked second in average, third in on-base percentage and fourth in RBI’s.

Last Cubs player to win this award was Kris Bryant. pic.twitter.com/rxPWtZkt5l

— Cubs Zone ™️ (@CubsZone) November 21, 2021

Owen White, Texas Rangers, RHP

Owen White was the pitcher of the year in the 2021 Arizona Fall League. He started six games, pitched 28.1 innings, had a 5-0 record with a 1.91 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 29 strikeouts. In 2021, White started eight games and pitched 33.1 innings in Low-A. He had a 3-1 record with a 3.24 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and a 31.1% K-BB%. According to the MLB prospect page, White is the No. 27 prospect in the Rangers system with an ETA date of 2023. Similar to Velazquez, I am going to keep an eye on White but am not sure what his fantasy relevance will be.

Gabriel Moreno, Toronto Blue Jays, C

Gabriel Moreno has been getting buzz recently as well. He had an Arizona Fall League-leading 11 doubles in 98 plate appearances. He hit .329 with a .410 OBP, and a .904 OPS. I have not seen him play yet, but people say he plays solid defense. Sometimes young catchers struggle at the plate as they get acclimated to defense and handling pitchers at the Major League level.

He is expected to make his debut in 2022 and some believe he is the Blue Jays' catcher of the future. In the fantasy world, catcher is not a very relevant position beyond the very top players. I'm not sure if Moreno is someone that can hit 40 home runs or steal double-digit bases. I often punt the position, so if he someone that can play the majority of time behind the plate and not destroy my batting average, I am in.

Nick Gonzales, Pittsburgh Pirates, 2B

Nick Gonzales hit .380 with a .483 OBP, 1.032 OPS, two home runs, and four steals in 84 plate appearances. He had 18 home runs and seven steals in High-A ball last year over the course of 369 plate appearances. At the age of 22, can he make a jump from High-A to the Major League level quickly?

Bryson Stott, Philadelphia Phillies, SS

Bryson Stott is another player that had a great Fall. He hit .318 with a .445 OBP, .934 OPS, two home runs, five steals, and a league-leading 31 RBI in 26 games. One beat writer believed Stott's performance would keep the Phillies out of the shortstop free-agent market.

In 2021, Stott played 80 games at Double-A before being promoted to Triple-A for 10 games. In those 80 games at Double-A, Stott hit .301, a .368 OBP, with 10 home runs and six steals. He had a 22.2% strikeout rate, a 10% walk rate, and a .179 ISO. Steamer has him projected for 288 plate appearances with eight home runs, four steals, and a .257 average in 2022. Over the course of a full season, that's on pace for 16 home runs and eight steals. That's someone I'd roster late in a Draft Champions format, or a potential waiver wire add at middle infield in a 15 team league - if he does get regular playing time.

Bryson Stott reached base in all 26 Arizona Fall League games he played in.

The @Phillies' No. 2 prospect was among the top statistical performers from the 2021 AFL campaign: https://t.co/r2fM7TiDrR pic.twitter.com/F28CnstLZf

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) November 22, 2021

Disappointments

Spencer Torkelson, Detroit Tigers, 1B/3B

Spencer Torkelson sprained his ankle after playing just seven games and was sent home early. In the seven games he played, he hit .450. He is Detroit's top prospect (No. 4 overall) according to MLB.com's prospect rankings and is expected to debut at first base sometime in 2022. Steamer has Torkelson projected to hit .259 with a .341 OBP,  29 home runs, five steals in 525 plate appearances. Despite the limited Fall, he should be a helpful fantasy contributor in 2022.

Marco Luciano, San Francisco Giants, SS

Marco Luciano had a disappointing Arizona Fall League. He hit .253 with a .356 OBP,  .730 OPS, and three home runs in 86 plate appearances. Strikeouts, one of his biggest concerns from his minor league statistics, were also a concern here. He was No. 7 in the Arizona Fall League with 28 strikeouts. It is disappointing because if you search him on YouTube, you will find some towering home runs, and he is a player that is electric when he is on. The downside is also large as well at this point in his playing career. The belief is the No. 5 overall prospect will make his Major League debut in 2023.

CJ Abrams, San Diego Padres, 2B/SS

I was interested in seeing what CJ Abrams would do in the Arizona Fall League after he fractured his left tibia and sprained his MCL earlier this season. Unfortunately, he hurt his shoulder sliding into a base during the fall instructional league. We will get our next peek at the No. 6 prospect in 2022 in Spring Training.

Nolan Gorman, Saint Louis Cardinals, 2B

Nolan Gorman played just six games in Arizona Fall League due to a hamstring injury. In those six games, he hit .375 with an OBP of .565 and hit one home run.  He has moved from third base to second base since the Cardinals now have Nolan Arenado for the foreseeable future. I wonder if he will end up being a Max Muncy type of player.

Gorman did steal seven bases in the minor leagues, but that was over the course of 119 games. A lack of elite speed at a middle infield position can be challenging for a fantasy roster build. So far, the transition to second base has been positive, however, if the National League ever adds a designated hitter, one has to wonder whether guys like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado will get time at DH allowing for Gorman to occasionally play a corner infield position.

MacKenzie Gore, San Diego Padres, LHP

MacKenzie Gore had a disappointing Arizona Fall League. He pitched just 11.1 innings, allowed nine runs (eight earned), struck out eight batters and walked six. In 2020, he was the highest-ranked pitching prospect. He was added to the Padres 40 man roster, and we will see what 2022 brings for MacKenzie Gore.

Bobby Miller, Los Angeles Dodgers, RHP

Bobby Miller pitched 10 innings, striking out 10, walking seven, allowing 11 earned runs. He is a regarded prospect expected to make his debut in 2022. I have had trouble with rostering Dodgers pitchers outside of Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw (when healthy). You never know how they are going to be used and often young pitchers like this end up being better real-life than fantasy options, especially early in their careers.

Final Thoughts

The No. 4 (Spencer Torkelson) and No. 6 (CJ Abrams) prospects did not play much to gain anything insightful from the Fall. Marco Luciano, the No. 5 prospect, had a disappointing fall. Triston Casas, Gabriel Moreno, Nick Gonzales, Nelson Velazquez, and Owen White have gained some of the biggest buzz from Arizona Fall League heading into the spring.

Outside of Torkelson, it is unknown when most of these top performers will make their big-league debut, as most could spend a majority (if not all) of the season in the minor leagues in 2022.

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