RADIO
2012 Was A Very Good Year
The New York Yankees signing of Chase Headley to a four-year, $52 million contract speaks volumes about what they think Alex Rodriguez can bring to the table this coming season. Headley has more in common with Scott Brosius than Rodriguez in his prime. Although Headley is the kind of positive clubhouse presence that reminds you of the players who won championships with the Yankees in the 1990s, the Bombers shouldn't expect him to be anywhere near as productive as he was in 2012.
Everyone tried to pry Headley away from the Padres after his breakout season of 2012. He entered the year as a 27-year-old third baseman who had never hit more than 12 home runs in a single season. He put together an impressive line that included 31 HR, 115 RBI and 17 stolen bases. He was 11th in the league with a 304.47 foot average flyball distance, but the average distance dropped to just 286.83 feet last year.
If you need more evidence of Headley’s diminished slugging skills, just check out his isolated power average (ISO). ISO is a stat that measures a ballplayer's power and how often he hits for extra bases. It has also fallen dramatically--last season, Headley managed a meager .130 ISO. In 2012, it was well above average at .212.
Headley also hasn’t come close to matching his stolen base total from 2012, managing a total of just 15 swipes over the last two seasons. It also looks like his career high .286 batting average from that magical year was an aberration: he has batted .250 and .243, respectively, in the two seasons since his career year.
Unfortunately for Headley, the Yankees’ 2015 projected starting lineup has been substantially diminished. With a better supporting cast, no one would expect Headley to have to try and carry the team. As of now, though, many anticipate that the Bombers will lean heavily on Headley as a major force in the offense.
On the bright side, getting traded to the Yankees last season seemed to reinvigorate Headley. After batting just .229 during 77 games with the Padres, he hit .262 for the Yanks the rest of the way. In addition, Headley’s line drive production of 27.2% was the highest of his career. If he can continue this trend, he could raise his overall batting average closer to his career mark of .265. Yankee Stadium is a much better hitter’s ballpark than Petco Field. As a switch hitter, Headley will get to try his hand at reaching the seats in the short right-field porch, which is just 314 feet from home plate.
In Summary
The Yanks may have signed a huge bargain, if Headley can regain some of the form that made him one of the most sought-after third basemen on the trade market. Sure, Headley is not the offensive player he once was. In this new era where pitching is king, he's not the only player whose stats have suffered. Last season saw the overall Major League batting average drop to .251, it’s lowest level since 1972. The overall league slugging percentage of .386 in 2014 hadn’t been that low since 1991.
The Yankees signing of Headley shows that there is a severe lack of talent at the third base position across the majors. Nevertheless, he wouldn’t be my first or even second choice as a fantasy baseball third baseman. The bottom line is that Headley wanted to be a Yankee, he felt comfortable in their clubhouse, and the Yankees thought he was a good fit.
Look for him to bat somewhere near .258 with 18 home runs, 75 RBI and nine stolen bases. If those numbers excite you, Mr. Headley should be there for the taking in the 10th to 12th rounds of your fantasy baseball drafts.
