RADIO
Kendall George's fantasy baseball prospect outlook, sleeper potential for dynasty leagues. Matt uses his custom suite of fundamentals-rooted evaluation tools.
From August through September of 2022, I watched Los Angeles Dodgers outfield prospect Kendall George play around 10 games when I attended the USA Baseball 18 Under (18U) National Team Camp through completion of the WBSC (World Baseball and Softball Confederation) 18U Baseball World Cup at various MLB complex sites along the central to southern Gulf coast of Florida.
George was the fastest player among the 24 camp position player invitees and proved to be quite a plate pest, working long counts but rarely striking out.
How have the offensive running and plate profile outcomes of George been while with the Dodgers?
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August Through September 2022 Live Looks
Over eleven plate trips during the training camp intra-squad games, George posted two singles, one double, two walks, and zero strikeouts. He turned in some of the longer plate appearances of any invitee. It was not uncommon for him to fall behind early, then spoil and take his way back to even or ahead in the count.
Still from my trip video archives shows George lining a single into shallow left center... which he turns into a double despite the left fielder grabbing the ball cleanly and putting the throw atop the bag.
He mostly hit groundballs or low liners back to the middle-third sector of the field. The speedster was successful in his lone steal try.
He would steal nine bases in 10 tries over 11 games after making the final roster. He posted 10 walks versus two strikeouts in 29 plate trips, with the four hits then oddly including three doubles.
By the end of the World Cup tournament, George had established that he was more likely to post competitive plate appearances as a pro after the 2023 Draft and would be an impactful offensive runner then, too. But would the then 5-foot-10, 165-pounder be physical enough on batted balls for professional baseball to be the right choice?
Throwing was the defensive area where strength was in doubt.
Brief Explanation of the FaBIO Model
My Fielding- and Ballpark-Independent Outcomes (FaBIO) evaluation model sorts every plate appearance into one of 12 outcome bins (BB+HBP, K, IFFB, Pull-Third OFFB, Center-Third OFFB, Oppo-Third OFFB, Pull-Third LD, Center-Third LD, Oppo-Third LD, Pull-Third GB, Center-Third GB, Oppo-Third GB) and charges the pitcher and batter with their league's mean runs value for said particular event that season.
Dividing a batter's total number of expected runs by plate appearance (PA) yields expected runs per PA that can be percentile ranked relative to the league mean and standard deviation for that parameter amongst league batter qualifiers to arrive at their Overall Rating.
Its three subcomponents of BB+HBP Rating (based on BB+HBP per PA), Strikeout Avoid Rating (K Avoid, based on K per PA), and Batted Ball Profile Rating (expected runs per batted ball) are also reported to identify the path the batter traveled to reach their Overall Rating.
Overall Rating and Batted Ball Profile Rating of batters should be considered power- and speed-neutralized metrics since the real-world runs value of a single batter's typical OFFB or LD varies with their strength, and the expected runs value of their typical GB varies with their speed.
To better understand the Path to Batted Ball Profile, we will also examine percentile ratings for select batted ball event types (on a per-batted ball basis). To check how well expected batted ball outcomes match real-world ones, we will compute percentile ratings for hits (AVG) and isolated power (ISO, or simply extra bases) on batted balls (recognizing full well that these two parameters are neither fielding- nor ballpark-independent outcomes).
What most explains a batter's ability to generate hits (AVG) on batted balls is any LD, IFFB avoidance, Pull-Third OFFB, and Pull-Third GB avoidance. What most explains their ability to generate extra bases (ISO) on batted balls is any OFFB, Pull-Third OFFB, Pull-Third LD, and IFFB avoidance.
A percentile rating of 97 amounts to plus-plus (two standard deviations above the mean), 84 is plus (one standard deviation above the mean), 69 is half plus, 50 is average, 31 is half minus, 16 is minus, and three is minus-minus.
A new addition to this suite of evaluation models is the Offensive Running Rating. This tool quantifies how each relevant inning's run expectancy was impacted by the player's action or inaction as either a batter or baserunner on very specific types of plays that are more likely to involve one or both of their speed or offensive running technique, plus acumen.
The evaluated batter and baserunner events are summarized in the graphic.
Prospect Analysis: Kendall George
The Dodgers did not come to the 2023 MLB Draft podium until the 36th overall pick. There, they selected George, who had agreed to a $1.85 million bonus that netted $500 thousand in pool savings for the club.
As the offensive game should be built around speed with this style of player, let's first review how George has fared at offensive running before advancing to an analysis of his plate outcomes.
Evolution of Pro Offensive Running
The 5-foot-10, 170-pound burner debuted in the 2023 Rookie-level Arizona Complex League with a 91 Offensive Running Rating that included a shockingly low nine as a Baserunner mark. Next, he rated 100 both as a Baserunner and as a Batter over another 66 combined events with the Low-A affiliate to wrap up his first pro go.
George spent all of 2024 with that same Low-A affiliate, earning a 100 Offensive Running Rating. Another case of the Batter mark being higher hints that George plays exceptionally fast up the first baseline, but is still learning the finer points of base stealing.
His (fully) triple-plus 100 Offensive Running Rating ranked third highest among 2024 minor leaguers who had at least 300 running-relevant play events evaluated. The table above reveals the twelve such 2024 MiLB offensive running qualifiers whose mark would round up to 100, including the No. 1 2024 and No. 1 2023 MiLB Offensive Running Rating qualifier, Chandler Simpson of the Rays.
Evolution of Pro Plate Profile
George opened his 2023 pro debut via 72 plate trips with the rookie Arizona Complex League affiliate. There he put up plus (83) BB+HBP and well over plus (93) K Avoid Ratings with a low-launch (8 GB Avoid, 13 OFFB) batted ball profile that was lower in LD (49) than ideal.
Over the next 68 PA with the Low-A club, BB+HBP and K Avoid would each drop at least a standard deviation, while a 100 LD Rating boosted another low-launch Batted Ball Profile to double plus (98), paving the way to more AVG on Batted Balls than he had produced in Arizona.
The combined two-level debut resulted in plus strikeout avoidance but not as many walks as the prior summer would have portended. The aggregate batted-ball profile was of a spray-hit design and thicker in LD + IFFB Avoid + Pull GB elements that would increase singles plus alley else baseline doubles production for the speedster.
With each club, the LHB who seldom struck out was quite prone to striking out against same-handed pitchers.
George returned to the Low-A affiliate for the entirety of 2024. Over 391 PA, K Avoid stayed near half plus as before there in 2023, as BB+HBP rebounded to 62. The key LD part of the LD + IFFB Avoid + Pull GB Avoid hit trio fell to 32. OFFB Rating leapt to 38.
But for just 10 Pull OFFB and the lack of strength, those OFFB far more often produced easy outs than extra bases. Such a low LD + Pull OFFB duo explains why the Batted Ball Profile sank below half minus.
Throughout the 2024 Low-A stint, the left-handed batter acclimated to left-handed pitchers (esp. their breakers) as Same-Handed Pitchers K Avoid rose to 70 and even topped the Oppo-Handed Pitchers K Avoid.
For the sake of record keeping, George had three plate trips in 2025 MLB spring games that produced either a BB+HBP or GB out.
In two of three 2023-2024 MiLB stops, a relative shortage of LD has limited how much AVG on Batted Balls that the LD + IFFB Avoid + Pull GB Avoid spray-hit trio could produce.
Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Focus
George already rates as a triple-plus offensive runner. Yet, with 58 steals in 79 attempts as a pro before 2025, he is still learning the finer nuances of stealing bases.
Per the high speed and low strength divide, George would ideally spray line drives to all fields, hit groundballs up the middle or the other way, bunt for singles, and mostly pull the relatively few outfield flyballs he lofts. Those and foul spoiling his way towards as many walks and hit-by-pitches as a low power threat can manifest are the routes by which he can make maximum offensive use of triple-plus wheels.
The early 2025 model of George has already hit two home runs, twice as many as he hit in his first two professional seasons combined. Still odder, they came in the same game. The first was a pulled high liner to low fly ball, which was about what one would expect if he hit one.
The second was a high fly to deeper right-of-center, very unlike what this style of player would produce. That his batting average sits at just .180 through 51 plate trips with five singles has me instinctively wondering if he is overly lofting outfield flies now.
George is a rangier flycatcher in center field. In 2024, he was error-prone, with seven errors in 152 fielding chances. To evolve into a plus pro centerfielder and offset the present lack of arm strength, George must also exhibit very reliable hands and throw accurately to bases and cutoff men.
You are correct in that there are some natural parallels between George and the also-lefty-batting but instead righty-throwing Simpson. At physical maturity, George should be at least a few ticks stronger at swinging the bat and throwing the baseball, if not also a more natural flycatcher in comparison to Simpson.
Dynasty fantasy players should stash George in their virtual farm system as a potential MLB deliverer of 30 to 80 stolen bases annually, along with comparable volumes of runs scored.
Between now and then, they should periodically evaluate whether the minor leaguer is tracking offensively and defensively as a future major league lineup regular (would he more likely bat at top or bottom of order, and how would that placement impact stolen bases and runs generated potential?) or a future MLB bench fourth outfielder and specialist pinch runner/stealer and late-game fly-catching defensive replacement.
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