Backfield Breakdowns and Target Shares - Fantasy Football Week 15 Outlooks for Josh Allen, Josh Jacobs, Puka Nacua, and More

December 10, 2024

Kyle's fantasy football sleepers for Week 15 of 2024 based on backfield touches, target shares, and more. Who are the key fantasy football risers and fallers?

Josh Jacobs Goes for Three Scores

2024 has been the year of the running back, and that continued even more in Week 14. The Green Bay Packers fell to the Detroit Lions on Thursday Night Football, but that didn't stop Josh Jacobs from having another big game. The former running back from Alabama rushed 18 times for 66 yards but was a force in the red zone, crossing the goal line three different times.

It's been a fantastic season for the likes of Jacobs, Saquon Barkley, and Derrick Henry. All three were considered older running backs heading into the season, but neither of them has disappointed. With how much the fantasy landscape has shifted towards a Zero RB/early WR approach, we should have seen the pendulum swinging back the other way.

Josh Jacobs is very good at running the football pic.twitter.com/oM3dFTQHff

— Ellie French (@elliefrenchTV) December 6, 2024

Zach Charbonnet filled in for an injured Kenneth Walker III in Seattle, and he had a monster day with 22 rush attempts for 134 yards and two touchdowns to go with seven receptions for 59 yards. While KWIII is the clear favorite of the coaching staff when both backs are healthy, Charbonnet is a must-start whenever Walker misses time.

Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams continues his impressive season as well. While he might not be the fastest or the biggest back out there, Williams continues to get it done. In fact, Williams has been one of the most consistent players in all of fantasy, with just two games outside the Top 24 RBs in half PPR format, and in those weeks, he was still the RB27 and the RB25.

Williams has six Top 12 RB finishes in the year, and the Rams have overcome their 1-4 start to sit at 7-6 and back in the thick of the NFC Playoff race. He's been a big part of the Rams' resurgence and already went over 1,000 yards rushing in Week 14.

Wide Receiver Target Share Data Heading into the Fantasy Playoffs

Here are the pass catchers with the highest target shares from Week 14. Due to longer load times and frame rates on mobile devices, all the vital data points you need are below in a separate tweet from my RotoBaller colleague, Scott Rinear.

Here are the pass-catching metrics, snap shares, targets per routes run (TPRR), and other important data points for all the pass-catchers heading into the fantasy playoffs.

Week 14 Leaderboards: Top 40 WRs (PPR)

Includes MNF

Stats included:
Fantasy Points
FPTS/Target
FPTS/Route
Snap Share
Routes Run
Route%
Targets
Targets per Route Run (TPRR)
Target Share

*Routes/Snaps data from @PFF_NateJahnke pic.twitter.com/oOmCFipGCS

— Scott Rinear (@MunderDifflinFF) December 10, 2024

A few important notes regarding the wide receivers in Week 14.

Puka Nacua had a monster day on Sunday afternoon against the Buffalo Bills, going for 12 receptions for 162 yards and one touchdown while rushing for another. Nacua was a walking highlight reel who made several impressive toe taps along the sideline as the Rams won an absolute barn burner of a game.

Jordan Addison of the Minnesota Vikings showed us why he continues to be a solid Robin to Justin Jefferson's Batman. Addison saw a total of 12 targets on Sunday afternoon to finish with eight receptions for 133 yards and three touchdowns. Addison has been wildly inconsistent this year, but it's the third time that he's finished as a Top-3 wide receiver this season in fantasy.

Jordan Addison over his last 4 Games
- 400 yards
- 5 TDs
- 2 100+ Yards games

ELITE. pic.twitter.com/zRRP3SuIij

— Cam (@42Cyc) December 9, 2024

Tyreek Hill of the Miami Dolphins was able to get back to his high-flying ways in Week 14. The star wideout had a season-high 14 targets to finish with 10 receptions for 115 yards and one touchdown. Miami has salvaged their season somewhat, and they are now 6-7 and are two games back in the AFC Wildcard race after an OT thriller against the Jets.

It's still been a rough season for Hill and his fellow teammate Jaylen Waddle for fantasy in 2024, but it was nice to see both get going again. Miami has a must-win game in Week 15, where they square off against the Houston Texans, where their playoff hopes are dangling by a thread.

Josh Allen Goes Nuclear

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen set several records in Week 14. Allen scored 51.88 fantasy points against the Los Angeles Rams in a game where he accounted for six touchdowns, passing for three and rushing for three more.

Allen was 22 of 37 passing for 342 yards and three passing touchdowns while rushing for 82 yards and scoring three more. Sheesh!

Josh Allen is in a league of his own. 💪 pic.twitter.com/vaSNJ6U3UR

— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) December 9, 2024

The bad news is the Bills lost to the Rams 44-42 in what was one of the better games of the year. Buffalo still sits at 10-3, but they've got the Detroit Lions coming to town in Week 15, and their hopes of locking up the No. 1 seed in the AFC are dimming, which means that the road to the Super Bowl likely goes through Kansas City again.

Nonetheless, what Allen has done this year, especially over the last month without wide receiver Keon Coleman and tight end Dalton Kincaid, has been nothing short of incredible. As it stands right now, he would be my pick for NFL MVP.

As far as fantasy goes, Allen continues to be a dominant force. He's scored at least 20 fantasy points per game in 10 of his 13 games this season, which is an incredibly high floor each week. Allen is the definition of a high-floor, high-ceiling type of player each week. While it seems like he continues to get drafted higher and higher each year, having him in your lineups is such a massive edge.

What RBs Saw Bell Cow Usage in Week 14?

Here were the running backs who saw at least a 60% snap share in Week 14.

The Latest Injury Updates

Here are all the latest injury updates heading into Week 15, courtesy of Deepak Chona. He has some of the best injury analysis in the business factoring in plenty of historical data and gives you a timeline regarding player injuries and when you might expect them back out there on the field.

#NFL Injury Updates:#Buccaneers Bucky Irving - Can play thru but re-injury typically = worse than 1st. Wk 15 = high risk. RBs see dip in touches if playing thru#49ers Isaac Guerendo - Severity unclear. "Q" tag suggests no fracture. Huge lead already. Prob MRI Mon

1/6

— Deepak Chona, MD. SportsMedAnalytics (@SportMDAnalysis) December 9, 2024

Conclusion

As we wrap up Week 14, let’s take a moment to recognize where we are: the fantasy playoffs. If you’re here reading this, that means you’ve earned your spot in the dance—so congratulations! Making the playoffs is no small feat, especially in a season as wild and unpredictable as this one. Now, it’s time to finish what you started.

The playoffs bring a new level of intensity, where every decision feels magnified. The good news? You’ve built a roster that got you this far, and that’s no small accomplishment. Stick with what’s worked, trust the players who’ve delivered, and make those lineup calls with confidence.

Finally, let’s enjoy the ride. The playoffs are where fantasy football gets its magic—every touchdown, every yard, and every decision can swing a matchup and spark the kind of adrenaline that reminds us why we play.

Win or lose, you’ve made it this far, and that’s something to be proud of. Now, let’s lock in, stay sharp, and take one more step toward the championship. Here’s to a strong finish and making every play count!

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