RADIO
The 2023 fantasy football season was an interesting one, to say the least. Injuries ravaged the quarterback landscape (especially in Superflex leagues), the 1.01 busted after missing half the season with an injury, undersized running backs shined in roles most experts didn't expect, and a team with a rookie quarterback coming off a 3-13-1 season became a fantasy football gold mine.
As a community, how did we miss on certain picks that look blatantly obvious now? In reverse, how were we not wise enough to see some of the potential pitfalls around several players on teams that have plagued their fantasy production in 2023? The truth is, nobody has a crystal ball. As much as we'd all like to think that we know more about this game than most, fantasy football can be a humbling experience from year to year.
With the rise of X accounts like Fantasy Receipts, it's become clear that consumers of fantasy content want more accountability and transparency from fantasy football analysts. Let's be honest, in life we all love to celebrate our wins, but nobody wants to come front and center for their losses. J.J. Zachariason is someone the fantasy community greatly respects because he admits when he gets predictions wrong and attempts to make it into an important learning lesson. So what can we learn from this past season that we can better use to help us dominate in 2024? Let's dig into some of my bold predictions and see what went right, what went wrong, what we can learn, and what possible trends can be anticipated to continue across the NFL in 2024.
What Went Right in 2023 Fantasy Football
Bills RB James Cook and The Rise of the Undersized Running Back
Cook is currently the RB12 on the season in points per game in full PPR formats and RB7 on the year overall. He was a massive value in fantasy (at least until mid-August when he started rising in ADP). Since Cook couldn't take away meaningful touches from RB Devin Singletary in 2022, many across the fantasy landscape were worried.
QB Josh Allen tends to run a lot in the red zone and the Bills' offense has always been pass-heavy. Cook is an undersized RB at 5 foot 11 and 190 pounds with only one season in college where he had 100+ rush attempts. Certainly, he couldn't become a bell-cow in the NFL, right?
It's become evident with the use of analytics and cap management experts that NFL teams aren't prioritizing running backs like they used to and it's led to fewer bell-cow types of RBs. We have our exceptions like Christian McCaffrey, Kyren Williams (surprisingly), and Saquon Barkley to name a few, but the reality is most RBs across the league don't see a large share of their team's carries anymore.
So how do we combat that in fantasy? We look for explosive, shifty running backs in good offenses with the pass-catching ability and speed to take it to the house on any given touch. Since most running backs aren't getting a ton of work, my contention all offseason was that typical size profiles shouldn't be as much of a factor for running backs anymore.
This played out exceptionally well with players like Cook, Jahmyr Gibbs, Kyren Williams, and De'Von Achane (until he got hurt anyway). We can make the argument that smaller RBs could have a higher injury risk, but given how much the RB landscape is changing, my belief is to prioritize bell-cows like CMC and Saquon.
After that, it's better to target wide receivers in the early rounds and navigate the running back dead zone carefully by drafting running backs with with the type profiles who are ultra efficient with their touches. Jahmyr Gibbs has had three games so far this season where he finished as the RB2, RB7, and RB3 despite having just 17, 14, and 13 touches in those games.
Taking Advantage of QB Arbitrage (aka Brock Purdy)
There wasn't a better value in Superflex or 2QB leagues this season other than 49ers QB Brock Purdy. Yours truly was able to grab him at the 8.04 in Scott Fish Bowl 13 in mid-July. There were even some teams getting him in Rounds 10-12. Purdy currently stands as the QB4 on the season at 20.2 PPG and has even been an amazing value in single QB formats as well.
Why was Purdy going so low? He had a season-ending elbow injury in the 2022 NFC Championship game and many were worried about his availability for Week 1. San Francisco had previously traded up in the 2021 NFL Draft to take QB Trey Lance, whom they had given up three first-round picks for. San Francisco couldn't possibly cut bait so quickly, could they?
It was pretty obvious from the 49ers' current roster construction heading into 2023 that they would be competing for a Super Bowl and they couldn't afford to give Lance any more time to see if he could develop. Many of their stars like LT Trent Williams were getting older, as well as their star RB Christian McCaffrey being in the prime of his career.
Before the summer was over, Lance was sent away to Dallas for a mid-round pick in 2024. Credit to GM John Lynch and HC Kyle Shanahan for cutting their losses and moving on. The Jets have kept trying to salvage their bad pick in QB Zach Wilson and it is haunting them for the third year in a row. Like the purpose of this article: sometimes it's better to acknowledge your mistakes and move on versus digging yourself a bigger hole.
Many of the analysts and fantasy players simply didn't know what to make of Purdy in fantasy. There were doubts about his injury and many believed that Lance would get a shot to be the starter. No doubt drafting Purdy in 2023 wasn't without its own set of risks, but my personal belief was that regardless of how you feel about Purdy in real life (whether he's good or just a product of the system), it would be nearly impossible for him to fail for fantasy in 2023 given all the talent around him.
Purdy operates the 49ers offense with maximum efficiency, even better than Jimmy Garoppolo did. After going 6-0 to end the 2022 season and 2-0 in the playoffs before going down early in the NFC Championship game, it just felt impossible that Kyle Shanahan would want a different QB for 2023.
What Went Wrong in 2023 Fantasy Football
RB Rachaad White and the Obvious Bell-Cow Workload
Rachaad White struggled to get his footing in Tampa Bay's offense as a rookie in 2022. He wasn't able to beat out veteran RB Leonard Fournette and the Bucs' offense in QB Tom Brady's final season sputtered along. White averaged just 3.7 yards per carry and had some of the lowest efficiency metrics across the NFL landscape in breakaway run rate, yards after contact, and 10+ yard runs.
Someone once said that opportunity matters more than talent for running backs in fantasy and it's true. While White has clearly shown off his talents this season, he is still averaging just 3.8 yards per carry. The difference? White has played 80 percent of his team's offensive snaps, which is the third-highest in the league among running backs.
Tampa Bay made it pretty clear during training camp and the preseason that they intended to give White all of the workload; yet as an analyst, I failed to take notice on top of being overly worried about the Bucs' offense for fantasy under Baker Mayfield.
White is one of the best receivers out of the backfield in the entire NFL and it's important to remember that a target is worth much more than a rush attempt is in fantasy. In fact, Scott Barrett of Fantasy Points did the math and determined that a target was worth 2.5 times more fantasy points than a carry in PPR formats.
Even if there are concerns about White's efficiency and ability as a runner between the tackles going forward, he's such a dynamic pass catcher that he's got a long career ahead of him. He was a clear value to those who drafted him the mid-rounds and for all my belief in guys like James Cook and Jahmyr Gibbs, I completely whiffed on White.
WR Michael Pittman Jr. and Overcorrecting After a Disappointing 2022
Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. was someone who I drafted a lot of in 2022 not realizing that QB Matt Ryan's arm was basically dead, the Colts' offensive line would struggle, head coach Frank Reich's scheme was stale, and that Pittman was being priced like a WR1 and could only disappoint.
Pittman averaged under 10 yards per reception to finish with 99 receptions for 925 yards and four TDs. It wasn't a bad season by any means, but when he was being drafted ahead of guys like A.J. Brown that year, he was a huge miss that early. Pittman finished around the WR28 range in half-PPR formats. Fine for a later round pick, but terrible for an early one.
Fast forward to 2023. Pittman is on the last year of his rookie deal and the Colts bring in former Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen to be their head coach. They also draft QB Anthony Richardson at No. 4 overall in the 2023 NFL Draft, who wasn't even 21 on draft night and had just one season as a starter under his belt in college.
It was understandable to be worried that the Colts might feature a run-heavy offense and could be a bad team. Their 2022 offense was so bad it really had nowhere to go but up. Early on, the Colts threw a lot with Richardson under center before he was lost for the season with a season-ending injury.
Pittman saw 10+ targets in two of his three games with Richardson under center before backup QB Gardner Minshew took over. What's the moral of this story? We can always predict talent in fantasy football better than we can predict usage and run/pass splits for an offense. What do I mean? Don't overly fade a talented player because you are worried about the situation. Situations change, and as we saw with Pittman, he has really shined this year and was a nice value for fantasy as he was drafted much later in 2023 than he was in 2022.
In 2024, Pittman's ADP will probably settle in between what it was the last two years and the value may not be there (assuming he re-signs in Indianapolis), but the point is to not overly fade good players. He may not be a true top-12 WR for fantasy, but he's still a very good player.
Conclusion
This is the first article in a series of 2023 recaps that will run in the coming weeks, so stay tuned. It's important to learn from our mistakes and not just our wins in fantasy. As analytics continues to integrate their way into the NFL, the game as we know it will continue to change. Even the other night on Monday Night Football, ESPN Analytics flashed on the screen and recommended that the Seahawks go for it on their own 45-yard line on fourth down and two. Pete Carroll punted as expected, but it just goes to show how different the game could look in another five years and even beyond that.
Fantasy football can be a humbling experience. The reality is we can't all be in the meeting rooms and inside of practices for all 32 NFL teams during the preseason, so it's impossible to know for sure who the coaching staff plans to play more than others.
We can look for clues and indicators like money a team is paying a certain player, as well as draft capital, but there are always exceptions. Rams WR Puka Nacua was proof of this as he seemingly came out of nowhere as a fifth-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, but stepped in and shined for the team immediately when WR Cooper Kupp began the season on injured reserve. Stay humble, stay hungry, and good luck in your league's fantasy football playoffs!
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!
Win More With RotoBaller
Be sure to also check out all of our other daily fantasy football articles and analysis to help you set those winning lineups, including this new RotoBaller YouTube video:More Fantasy Football Analysis
