RADIO
Rob looks at each NFL team in the AFC North and identifies players from each team that fantasy football managers should be targeting and avoiding in 2023.
With OTAs complete and training camp right around the corner, we continue to get closer and closer to fantasy football season. Here, we’ll embark on a new series, focusing on players from each NFL team that fantasy managers should be targeting and avoiding this season. Fantasy managers should never be fully in or out on any player. It all comes down to their price.
It’s easy to say to target Justin Jefferson or Josh Allen, but we’ll specifically be looking at their current ranking and costs because this is really the most important aspect of fantasy football. Does the player’s cost align with their value? Each player has some form of risk and upside associated with their performance. Does their price reflect those elements?
Those are the questions we’ll be answering here. If the answer to either question is no, then those are the players we’ll be highlighting, for better or worse. For the start of this series, we’ll be focusing on the four teams that play in the AFC North division. With fantasy football draft season starting soon, don't forget to use the promo code "BOOM" at checkout for a 10% discount on any premium purchase.
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Baltimore Ravens
Players to Target- QB Lamar Jackson
Using Yahoo!’s ADP in half-PPR scoring, Lamar Jackson is currently being selected as the QB5. Fantasy managers should be all over him at that current price. He has the upside to break fantasy as he did in 2019. Especially now with a new offensive coordinator who is expected to increase the passing volume and efficiency.
Since becoming the Ravens’ primary starter in 2019, he’s averaged 24.18 PPG. Even if we exclude his record-setting campaign in 2019, he’s still averaged 22.6 PPG in his healthy contests over the past three seasons. Last year, this average would’ve been good enough for a QB4 finish, and now he's got more weapons than ever.
The team has brought in first-round receiver Zay Flowers and signed Odell Beckham Jr., finally giving Jackson some legitimate weapons in the passing game. We can't forget about Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman, too.
Some fantasy managers may fret regarding the comments about him running less, but this is largely overblown. Jackson is who he is because of his dual-threat ability. You can’t neutralize that. While he may run slightly less, there’s no question he will still be at the top of most rushing attempts and yards by a quarterback.
In fact, since 2019, Jackson has averaged 10.74 rush attempts per game. The next closest quarterback is at 8.59. Fifth on the list averages 7.03. Since that time, he’s also averaged 69.3 rushing yards per game, while second is at 57.9 and fifth is at 37.8. The comments about him running less are nothing to worry about as long as the passing offense does what we are expecting it to do. Another QB1 finish is certainly not out of the question.
Players to Avoid- WR Odell Beckham Jr.
Fantasy managers have to give up on this dream. Beckham is currently being drafted as the WR50 on Yahoo! While that may not sound egregious, there’s virtually no reason to make this pick. He hasn’t averaged more than 3.5 catches or 46 receiving yards per game since 2019. Since then, the 30-year-old has endured two torn ACLs. The last time we saw him in 2021, he averaged just 3.14 catches and 38.4 yards per game. There’s virtually no upside here.
While we should absolutely be expecting the passing volume to increase in Baltimore, it’s not going to increase nearly enough for Jackson to support three different pass-catchers. The reality is Beckham will be a far more effective real-life player than a fantasy one. Fantasy managers are better off targeting Zay Flowers, Rondale Moore, Rashee Rice, Skyy Moore, Jonathan Mingo, Romeo Doubs, and Nico Collins, all of whom are going after Beckham on Yahoo! right now. They all have more upside.
Cincinnati Bengals
Players to Target- RB Joe Mixon
Joe Mixon is currently being drafted as the RB17 right now, and I have to tell you that is such a steal right now! He literally finished as the RB9 in half-PPR PPG last year, scoring 14 PPG. Since then, the team lost backup running back Samaje Perine in free agency and signed run-blocking extraordinaire Orlando Brown Jr. from the Chiefs. This signing will significantly upgrade their offensive line, and his ADP has still dropped eight spots from where he finished last year. Make it make sense.
Excluding his rookie season, Mixon has never averaged fewer than 19 touches per game or 89 scrimmage yards per game. That’s dating back to 2018, five straight seasons averaging at least 19 touches and 89 scrimmage yards every single game. That’s crazy! Over 17 games at minimum, you’re looking at 323 touches and 1,513 scrimmage yards.
Oh, and did I mention he plays for the Bengals? They finished seventh in points scored last year and eighth in yards gained. All this was with the team missing superstar receiver Ja'Marr Chase for a few weeks. The Cincinnati offense will give Mixon plenty of scoring opportunities, evidenced by last season. He finished sixth among running backs with the most red zone touches and had the fifth-most carries inside the five-yard line.
Players to Avoid- WR Tee Higgins
Tee Higgins is an excellent player, so avoiding him doesn’t have anything to do with his talent. Rather, it’s the price that fantasy managers should question. He’s currently going ahead of Chris Olave, D.K. Metcalf, and Keenan Allen, who are very likely to finish with more targets than Higgins. In Chase’s rookie season, he and Higgins were fairly equal, but that all changed in 2022.
Looking at Weeks 13 through the AFC Championship game (excluding Week 14 because Higgins didn’t play), Chase had a 27.8% target share. Higgins was at just 20.2%. Chase really asserted his dominance, and that’s likely to become even more apparent for him entering his third year. Higgins will still be a quality WR2, but he may struggle to return value at his current WR13 cost if Chase goes nuclear. Oh, and Chase is going nuclear this season.
Cleveland Browns
Players to Target- TE David Njoku
David Njoku is currently being drafted as the TE10 on Yahoo! Nevertheless, I’d take him above Pat Freiermuth and Evan Engram, both of whom are going ahead of him. Also, at cost, I’d much rather have Njoku than George Kittle and Dallas Goedert, who are going 3-4 rounds earlier. Fantasy managers can look at the kind of value Njoku provided week to week courtesy of RotoViz’s NFL Player Stat Explorer tool here. This is a phenomenal tool to gauge each player’s weekly value and consistency.
In Week 11, when he scored just 2.7 half-PPR points, he only played 35% of the snaps as the team eased him back into action following a three-week injury absence. Eliminating that game, he performed as a TE1 in more than 50% of his games.
Last year, he averaged 5.8 targets, 4.2 receptions, and 46.6 yards in games with a snap share higher than 40%. Across 17 games, he’d finish with 99 targets, 71 receptions, and 792 yards. It’s no mystery that Deshaun Watson struggled in his return. With a full offseason, there’s no reason not to expect the QB to return to his Houston form, though. Should that happen, or even if he gets close to it, Njoku could explode.
Players to Avoid- WR Elijah Moore
Elijah Moore is currently being drafted as the WR48, which doesn’t sound like a player you’d necessarily have to avoid. That’s true — you don’t need to straight up avoid him. This is more of a take caution approach. While there’s been talk of a third-year breakout, he’s got a long way to go before that’s true and enough competition standing in his way.
The team already employs Amari Cooper, who will be the team’s unquestioned No. 1 target in the passing game. There’s also Njoku, who was just mentioned and finished with a 19.3% target share. Fantasy managers are quick to dismiss the other pass-catchers on the roster and assume Moore will just slide into that No. 3 role. However, that's far from a given. We don't even know if that No. 3 role is fantasy viable, creating two question marks.
Donovan Peoples-Jones quietly had a very good third year. His target share increased to 19.0%, and he finished with 96 targets, 61 receptions, and 839 yards. With his size and the Browns’ penchant for running the football, fantasy managers shouldn’t be expecting DPJ to be coming off the field when they go to a 2-WR set. It’ll likely be the smaller slot receiver, Elijah Moore, who comes off the field. This will limit his snap count and route percentage.
This isn’t to say that Moore can’t pay off at his current price because he’s quite cheap, but it’s hard to see if there’s a meaningful ceiling here. Similar to OBJ before, fantasy managers are likely better off pivoting to Zay Flowers, Rondale Moore, and Skyy Moore, all of whom seem to have an easier pathway to consistent targets.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Players to Target- WR Diontae Johnson
Diontae Johnson is one of the easiest smash picks at cost. He’s currently being drafted as the WR32 on Yahoo!, but has averaged a ridiculous 153 (!!!) targets over the past three seasons. He’s also averaged just shy of 94 receptions over that time span. While we all know by now that he scored zero touchdowns last year, he scored eight and seven touchdowns in 2021 and 2020, respectively.
Without question, Johnson had the biggest outlier of a season regarding his touchdown drought for any receiver in the history of the NFL. Because of this and a few George Pickens highlight reel catches, we’re supposed to forget who the alpha here is. Nope, not happening.
Kenny Pickett played better as the season went along. While that still left a lot to be desired, it should at least give fantasy managers some optimism that the offense will be better in 2023. Not that it really matters, though, because 153 targets are 153 targets. You simply cannot draft that kind of volume in Round 6. But with Johnson, you can. This is an opportunity you should not pass up.
Players to Avoid- WR George Pickens
This notion that George Pickens is going to leapfrog Diontae Johnson is silly. Believe it or not, there was a time in Underdog drafts when Pickens was actually going ahead of Johnson. Ludicrous, I say!
Even now, the distance between them is marginal. On Yahoo!, he’s currently being drafted as the WR35, just three spots behind Johnson. However, to leapfrog Johnson, he’ll actually have to leapfrog Pat Freiermuth. No, I’m not kidding.
The table below looks at the games where Pickett started and finished the game at quarterback and after the Steelers traded Chase Claypool to Chicago. This leaves us with a sample size of seven games, comprising Weeks 10-13 and 16-18.
| Player | TPG | RPG | RYPG | RZ Targets |
| G. Pickens | 4.9 | 3.0 | 47.4 | 2 |
| D. Johnson | 7.7 | 3.9 | 47.0 | 8 |
| P. Freiermuth | 6.3 | 4.0 | 47.4 | 7 |
Pickens averaged the fewest targets per game -- 1.4 behind Freiermuth and 2.8 behind Johnson -- as well as fewer receptions. Not only that, but Pickens was well behind both of them in red zone targets, too. So I’ll say it again: for Pickens to leapfrog Johnson, he absolutely needs to leapfrog Freiermuth first. Taking a deeper look at the numbers doesn’t get any better for Pickens.
| Player | TS % | AYPG | aDot | RR % | YPRR | TPRR |
| G. Pickens | 16.0% | 71.1 | 14.6 | 87.6% | 1.51 | 15% |
| D. Johnson | 25.5% | 76.9 | 10.0 | 92.8% | 1.42 | 23% |
| P. Freiermuth | 20.8% | 52.4 | 8.3 | 75.3% | 1.76 | 23% |
Pickens is well behind Johnson and Freiermuth in both their target shares and targets per route run. What happens when Pickens doesn’t score on every 11th touch (he won’t) and Johnson actually starts converting his many more red zone looks into touchdowns?
Fantasy managers are better off eyeing Treylon Burks, Jordan Addison, Jahan Dotson, Brandin Cooks, and Rashod Bateman, who all have a higher ceiling than Pickens at a cheaper cost.
Burks is his team’s undisputed WR1. Addison is on a high-scoring offense with a great quarterback. Dotson will be the unquestioned No. 2 in Washington, a distinction Pickens doesn’t yet own. Cooks will be the No. 2 in Dallas on what should be a top-10 offense. Bateman is likely to be the No. 1 receiver for Jackson, who comes two rounds cheaper.
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