6 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidates to Draft: John's Must-Have Sleepers

John Johnson's 6 fantasy football breakout candidates for 2025 at QB, RB, WR, TE. His top sleepers and draft targets include Trevor Lawrence, Keon Coleman, Braelon Allen, and more.

With only a couple of weeks left until the start of the NFL and fantasy football season, the preseason sleepers and breakout candidates are different from what they were two months ago. When the summer started and player analysis really kicked into high gear, that meant players labeled as breakout candidates at that time had been rising up draft boards for two months.

Two months ago, players like Tampa Bay rookie wide receiver Emeka Egbuka were sleepers. Now that we have news about Chris Godwin's delayed start to the season, and Jalen McMillan's neck injury, Egbuka's ADP has risen around 40 spots in some places. While he is still technically a breakout candidate because he has never played a down of NFL football, the cost to secure his services has exploded.

Below are six players at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end who are still true late-round breakout candidates just two weeks ahead of the NFL season beginning. According to the RotoBaller ADP in Half-PPR formats, these players are all going after pick 120, or after the first 10 rounds of a 12-team draft (with one slight exception).

• 2025 fantasy football rankings
• Running back (RB) fantasy football rankings
• Wide receiver (WR) fantasy football rankings
• Tight end (TE) fantasy football rankings
• Quarterback (QB) fantasy football rankings
• Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
• NFL rookie fantasy football rankings
• Best ball fantasy football rankings
• Superflex fantasy football rankings
• Dynasty fantasy football rankings

Quarterback Breakout Candidates

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP 148)

We get a lot of players who come through the NFL and fantasy football who have or had the word "generational" attached to their name. After four mediocre years, we may have forgotten, Lawrence was labeled as a can't-miss, generational player as well. It's been a lot more missing than hitting the last few years, but Lawrence has never had a better shot than right now.

Lawrence only has one season with more than 21 passing touchdowns (he threw 25 in 2022), and he only tossed 11 scores in 2024 thanks to injuries and a career-low 60% completion percentage. In 2024, Lawrence was 23rd among quarterbacks in accuracy rating and 35th in true completion percentage. And those poor numbers were with a brand-new weapon in Brian Thomas Jr., Trevor Etienne as a pass-catching back, and a competent tight end in Evan Engram.

Coming into 2025, Lawrence now has Travis Hunter lined up across the field from Thomas, as well as a new scheme from quarterback guru Liam Coen, who turned Baker Mayfield into a superstar last season. Similarly, Mayfield had never thrown more than 28 touchdowns in a season, but Coen found a way for him to throw for 41 touchdowns and rush for almost 400 yards.

I’m looking for Coen to allow Lawrence to air it out this year to Hunter and Thomas Jr., which should give him a great chance to pay off his draft position at pick 148 this offseason. If you play the waiting game on quarterback in your draft, Lawrence is a great option to double up at the position and play the matchups.

Running Back Breakout Candidates

Braelon Allen, New York Jets (ADP 140.5)

There is no longer a debate about whether or not the New York Jets' backfield will be a committee. In fact, it might be one of the messiest in the NFL with three legitimate running backs plus Justin Fields frequently calling his own numbers on a large percentage of dropbacks.

But the coach-speak out of camp has been positive for Allen and not so glowing for Breece Hall. Allen only saw 26.5% of snaps last season. However, he was a 20-year-old rookie playing for an incompetent offense and a broken offensive line. Much of that has been mended this year, setting up Allen for a much larger share of the workload.

Hall is talented and versatile, but no regime he has been in seems to want to commit a large share of the workload to him. He was 15th in opportunity share last season (68%) and was just 18th in carries (209), despite missing just one game.  His 30 red-zone touches in 2024 ranked just 29th among running backs. If Hall gets the red zone this season, he could truly break out.

Jaylen Wright, Miami Dolphins (163.5)

De'Von Achane's ominous injury and the lack of information from Coach Mike McDaniel are causing other Miami running backs to creep up draft boards. Wright was an athletic specimen of a prospect coming out of Tennessee in 2024. He was at least the 94th percentile among running backs in burst score, speed score, and 40-yard time. He had over 1,150 total yards in 12 games his final year at school and is still just barely 22 years old.

Wright couldn’t separate from the pack last season to earn meaningful snaps as De’Von Achane’s primary backup. Wright could not separate from Jeff Wilson Jr. or Raheem Mostert or make enough big plays to earn significant playing time. As a result, his ADP is around pick 163 right now, going as the RB57 in current drafts. His week-to-week status with an undisclosed injury could make him fall even further.

But Achane's uncertain status makes things murky. Rookie Ollie Gordon II is around to provide some competition, but if this is an injury that lingers for Achane throughout the season, Wright is going to play a large percentage of snaps.

Wide Receiver Breakout Candidates

Keon Coleman, Buffalo Bills (ADP 119)

I can not get enough of Coleman in 2025, and I am taking him anywhere I can get him in drafts this month. He is my number one breakout candidate for this season. So even though this is slightly cheating since his average draft position is 119, we will allow it just because of how much conviction I have here.

No other Bills receiver can match Coleman’s combination of size, catch ability, and game-breaking upside. Rather under the radar, he ranked fourth among all wideouts in yards per reception last year (19.2), fueled by a top-25 finish in deep targets and the number one target rating in the league. If Josh Allen begins to focus his attention on just one or two wide receivers in 2025, my money is on Coleman earning that trust.

I feel certain that what the Bills want is to get back to the pattern of having a receiver like Stefon Diggs, who would frequently top 150 targets in a season. They want a reliable pass-catcher they can count on for third downs, contested grabs, red zone consistency, and explosive plays. Khalil Shakir and Joshua Palmer are fine possession receivers. Curtis Samuel is aging and might have a few gadget plays left. Especially at the draft cost, Coleman is the receiver you want.

Marvin Mims Jr., Denver Broncos (ADP 141.5)

The trade of Devaughn Vele to New Orleans really has me on red alert that Mims might be ready to assume a huge role in the Denver Broncos' offense this season. It's not as though Vele and Mims were direct competitors for snaps or targets, but jettisoning a receiver off of Denver means they have plenty of confidence in the guys they have.

Mims has spent the last two years being one of the most boom-or-bust receivers in the NFL. Mims was first in target separation and fourth in yards per route run in the NFL last season. But he was just 143rd in snap share and 123rd in routes. The Broncos have had a Corvette in the garage, but they only get it out and drive it down the block every once in a while.

That should change in 2025, with Mims assuming the WR2 role alongside Courtland Sutton. With Engram and Sutton commanding targets in the short and intermediate parts of the field, expect Mims to blow the top off the defense and be a formidable weapon downfield.

Tight End Breakout Candidates

Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys (ADP 127.5)

Ferguson has an average ADP of around 130 across all sites in August drafts, putting him just outside the top 15 tight ends. Based on the Cowboys' past two seasons, if they continue to throw like they have in 2023 and 2024, Ferguson could find an easy path to a huge return on that investment.

While Ferguson's value looked like a better value before the Cowboys acquired George Pickens, the run game in Dallas remains a mess. This team is going to throw maybe more than any other team in 2025. The Cowboys ranked third in 2024 with 37.5 pass attempts per game and averaged over 40 per game at home.

CeeDee Lamb is a lock for 140 targets, but after him, Ferguson and Pickens should both push for 100 or more. Ferguson has averaged six targets per game over the past two seasons. Should that trend continue, he’s looking at 102 targets and potentially another 70-catch season like he had in 2023. Ferguson scored zero touchdowns last year, which is really holding his draft cost down as well. In a pass-heavy offense, there is no way that bad touchdown luck continues.

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