RADIO
After a riveting West Coast swing, The PGA Tour makes its way South of the border this week for the Mexico Open at Vidanta Vallarta. The field quality is going to come as a bit of a shock to the system in regards to what we saw at Riviera Country Club for the Genesis Invitational. That said, we have a batch of players who are hungry for a victory, including the defending Champion Tony Finau who comes in highly ranked.
In this article, you will find my TourPicks Top 10 Power Rankings for the Mexico Open, which provides a first look at the players who I believe are primed to make a significant impact and play well next week. It should come as no surprise that many of the players listed below are favorites next week, but I put some serious thought into who I believe the course and event set up best for based on stats, course history, and, of course, motivational narratives.
I hope that these rankings will become a staple in your weekly preparation and the place where you start your research for the week. I have carefully evaluated each player in the field to project course fits and expected results in an attempt to give you a glimpse at how my brain operates when it comes to handicapping professional golf. In addition to my Top 10 rankings, I will provide a brief summary for each player to give some reasoning behind their rankings. As always, thank you for your support, and good luck.
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#10. Erik Van Rooyen
Back in December, I got the chance to walk inside the ropes at a golf course grand opening that featured several PGA Tour Players. None of them impressed me more that day than Erik Van Rooyen. He's become a fantastic iron player and every strike seems so pure and repeatable. He's gained strokes on Approach in six of his last eight starts and that doesn't even include his victory during the Fall at the WWT because they didn't carry shotlink data.
It should be a good course fit for Van Rooyan in Mexico. He finished 33rd in his debut at Vidanta Vallarta last season in his debut at this event and he was in much poorer form during that span. He's plenty long off the tee box and the ultra-wide fairways will provide some protection from his accuracy dispersion. If he can lean on his long iron play, then we could be in store for another big-time EVR week especially given the resort vibes in Mexico from a few months ago!
Erik Van Rooyen finished birdie, birdie, eagle, to shoot 28 back 9 and win on the PGA Tour last night. So good! 🔥🇿🇦
— Flushing It (@flushingitgolf) November 6, 2023
#9. Patrick Rodgers
Back to back top-10 finishes at the Mexico Open in the last 2 years is what moved Patrick Rodgers into my rankings this week. Rodgers season form always seems to peak through California and he did manage to grab himself a 9th place result at the Farmers Insurance Open a few weeks back.
Rodgers gained +3.1 strokes on approach during the Sunday round alone at Vidanta Vallarta in 2023 and fired a final round 64 which was best in the field that day. He's another player with plenty of distance but struggles with accuracy. This is a golf course that benefits strongly players who carry that skill set historically.
#8. Thomas Detry
Thomas Detry appears to be getting more and more comfortable with the PGA Tour schedule and routine. He finished 20th, 4th, and 28th in his previous three starts coming into this week. His ability to gain an advantage on the field with his distance will be rewarded be this golf course. Detry is averaging 309 yards OTT in his last 36 rounds played.
Detry has gained strokes OTT on the field in every start on the PGA Tour in 2024 and has shown the flashes of ability to run hot with the putter that we always look for. This will be the first start for the young player from Belgium at the Mexico Open and a great place for him to potentially capitalize on his run of form.
#7. Thorbjorn Olesen
The Thunder-Bear makes his first appearance on my top-10 rankings for this week's Mexico Open. He'll do so coming off a victory at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship in his last start on the DP World Tour at the end of January. We rarely see Thorbjorn Olesen play on the PGA Tour but he's set to compete at Vidanta Vallarta this coming week.
Olesen is a terrific putter and has plenty of experience in big moments throughout his career. He currently ranks #1 on the DP World Tour in scoring average this season at 68.08. He's shown a resurgence in his career and it will be interesting to see his game get tested on the PGA Tour level.
The moment @thorbjornolesen won the Ras Al Khaimah Championship 😍#RAKGolfChamps pic.twitter.com/ADlsQ1d4ZV
— DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) January 28, 2024
#6. Mark Hubbard
Mark Hubbard told a reporter that he was hitting the ball the best he ever has in career a few weeks ago at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and was begging for an opportunity to play the final 18 holes on Sunday. That round never came as the event was concluded early and he ended up notching a 4th place spot for the week.
Hubbard also gained an astonishing +8.38 strokes on Approach the week prior at the Farmers Insurance Open where he finished top-20. He's had two successful ventures at the Mexico Open in the past 2 years and I fully expect him to play well once again with a legitimate opportunity to capture a trophy in a less top-heavy field.
#5. Emiliano Grillo
Emiliano Grillo is the one player in my rankings that does not fit with the others. He is well below Tour average in ball speed and carry distance but has seemed to figure out a way to play Vidanta Vallarta regardless. Grillo has long been a solid long iron player and his biggest weakness, which is his struggles around the green chipping, is largely de-emphasized here.
Grillo finished top-10 at El Cardinal in his final event of 2023 and was top 5 at the Mexico Open last year. He was the best approach player in the field by a full stroke on the field. Grillo has been lingering around the top 10s of leaderboards all of 2024 and this could be the week where he breaks through for a win given that he is the 3rd highest-ranked OWGR Player in the field.
#4. Nicolai Hojgaard
If it weren't for the bright shine of shooting star Ludvig Aberg, then we would be strongly considering Nicolai Hojgaard as one of the top young European talents we have seen come up in quite a long time. With Ryder Cup experience and a runner-up at Torrey Pines, Hojgaard seems primed to take the PGA Tour by storm.
He bombs it off the tee, averaging 314 yards average driving distance over his last 36 rounds played. Hojgaard won the DP World Tour Championship in November with an impressive final round 64 to take down an event with several of the best players on both the PGA Tour and LIV Tour competing alongside him.
Man, I love watching Nicolai Hojgaard hit driver. His runner-up at Torrey Pines gives him a win and two 2nds in his last five worldwide starts:
2nd
1st
T25
T7
2nd— Sean Martin (@PGATOURSMartin) January 30, 2024
#3. Stephan Jaeger
Stephan Jaeger has somewhat quietly turned himself into an established and rising PGA Tour player. He's played in this event both previous times and easily finished inside the top-20. I'm starting to become really keen on Jaeger on these resort style courses with wider than average fairways, he's sneaky gotten a lot longer with his distance off the tee lately.
a T3 finish at the Farmers Insurance Open, which he led for a good portion, was his best of the year and showed us glimpses that the form is all there. Jaeger was uber-consistent through the Fall and late summer of last year in part due to his long iron play which sees a significant uptick from the fairways. He should be able to leverage his newly found power and prowess from the short grass to find himself near the top of another leaderboard this week.
#2. Tony Finau
The defending champion Tony Finau checks it at #2 in our Power Rankings this week. Finau rode a hot putter on these slower-than-normal Paspalum greens last year to the tune of his best-Putting numbers of the season in route to his victory. His final score of -24 under par was his lowest total in the past two years.
Here is what I will say, we know he will gain strokes and advantage off the tee, but I have concerns that he is due for a repeat putting performance from last year. Before his win last year, he had gained strokes putting in 10 of the previous 14 starts, and was really in a groove with the flat stick. Before the Genesis Invitational last week, he had lost strokes putting in 6 of his last 7 strokes starts and his newly deployed "hitchy" routine has Finau looking very shaky on the greens.
He'll undoubtedly be a deserving favorite, but there is one player who I actually feel has a better chance than him of winning the Mexico Open...
#1. Will Zalatoris
UPDATE: Will Zalatoris has withdrawn from the Mexico Open per PGA TOUR Communications
Full disclosure, I am submitting this piece before the finish of the Genesis Invitational, but Will Zalatoris appears to be back! Through the first three rounds, he's leading the entire field at Riviera Country Club in strokes gained approach by a full stroke. It would appear as if Will Zalatoris is building momentum and confidence sooner than many of us suspected.
Besides the course being a phenomenal fit for Zalatoris, it's my opinion that he's the best overall player in the field and is also HUNGRY to win! He has been working on becoming more and more comfortable with the long putter and the data has gotten incrementally better in each start this season, suggesting that he is starting to get more comfortable.
There will be over 60% of approach shots hit at Vidanta Vallarta from 175-250 yards which is right in the wheelhouse of Zalatoris. He has been able to separate himself on the most difficult tasks and Major Championships throughout his career because they typically require proficiency in this very area. He's trending toward the peak, and I think it comes this week at the Mexico Open!
Great to see Will Zalatoris back in the mix at a big event. He’s T2 heading into Sunday at Riviera. Most encouraging: he’s gained 3.2 shots on the field putting this week. I also love that his broomstick is nowhere close to being anchored. pic.twitter.com/H8xVdpw6i7
— Dan Rapaport (@Daniel_Rapaport) February 17, 2024
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