2023 Dynasty Fantasy Football Riser: Trevor Lawrence

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence was the first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft for a reason -- he was viewed as a generational prospect with comparisons to Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck. However, he was viewed as pro-ready, so after a poor rookie season, a little bit of doubt began to creep in among the NFL and fantasy football community.

After a rocky start to his 2022-23 NFL sophomore campaign, he bounced back and looked precisely like the quarterback Jacksonville and the football world expected him to be since the moment he took over at Clemson University.

His slot in the quarterback dynasty rankings never truly took a nosedive since he had the best draft capital possible, but after a promising season, his value in dynasty and overall trade value has skyrocketed and he's among the most valuable players in Superflex and two-QB dynasty leagues.

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2022 Season In Review

In Week 1, Lawrence looked just like he did as a rookie. Against the Washington Commanders, Lawrence completed just 57.1 percent (24-42) of his passes for 275 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. However, he bounced back in the wins over the Indianapolis Colts and Los Angeles Chargers, completing a combined 53 of his 69 attempts for 497 yards, five touchdowns, and two interceptions, while posting two straight QB1 performances.

The next two weeks saw him post two passing touchdowns to three interceptions, finishing as the QB30 and QB21, respectively. Once Week 5 concluded, he hit his stride.

From Weeks 6 to 15, Lawrence posted 20 total touchdowns (four rushing) to just three interceptions. He finished as a top eight fantasy quarterback in six of those nine weeks and established himself as a rushing threat, which we know is a cheat code for fantasy QBs. He won't be Lamar Jackson or Justin Fields, but he can be a tactical scrambler and goal-line threat.

During that stretch. he finished only behind Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Josh Allen in fantasy points per game. That said, he stacked up well with the elite fantasy QBs. The best day of his career came in Week 14 against the Tennessee Titans as he threw for 368 yards and three touchdowns while finding the end zone on the ground for a 33.4-fantasy point performance.

Lawrence led the Jaguars to a 9-8 record, winning six of the final seven games and defeating the two-time defending AFC South champion Tennessee Titans in Week 18 to clinch a playoff berth. In the Wild Card Round, Lawrence threw four interceptions in the first half and trailed the Los Angeles Chargers 27-0, but eventually came back to win with a 288-yard, four-touchdown performance. In the end, Jacksonville lost to the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round, but it's silly to call the season anything but a success for a young team on the rise.

Overall, Lawrence posted 4,113 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, eight interceptions, 291 rushing yards, and five rushing touchdowns -- good for a QB8 finish on the year.

 

Trevor Lawrence Dynasty Value/Market

While all dynasty leagues vary and Lawrence's market value could be different from league to league, Keeptradecut.com is a rankings database where the pecking order is determined by the readers who use it. As of early March, Lawrence sits as the eighth-most valuable player in Superflex or two-QB leagues but is sixth among all NFL quarterbacks.

When quarterbacks reach that value in Superflex formats, it takes a huge haul of picks to acquire them. However, he is a much better prospect than any quarterback coming out of the 2023 NFL Draft class, so he might have reached an untouchable status in those leagues. His single-QB league value obviously isn't as astronomical, but he's become a high-upside viable starter in those leagues, so it still might be tough to get him off of your league mate's roster.

Ultimately, the trajectory of his career is pointing upward in a big way, and he could be unanimously considered a top five "real-life" and fantasy quarterback for the next decade-plus. The duo of him and Jaguars head coach Doug Peterson could be dangerous in the AFC South for years to come.

 

2023 Fantasy Football Outlook

Lawrence will get back his top pass-catchers in Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram (franchise tagged), but in 2023, he'll see a new face in the huddle, who is arguably the best of the bunch. After being suspended for the entire 2022 season for betting on NFL games, former Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Calvin Ridley has been reinstated by the NFL and will catch passes from Lawrence next fall.

Ridley has a 1,300-yard season on his career log even while sharing the field with Julio Jones for part of the year and his resume far exceeds those of Kirk, Jones, or Engram. While he could be rusty to start the campaign, the 28-year-old is fully expected to raise the ceiling of an already rising young offense.

Meanwhile, Travis Etienne will be entering his third NFL season, but more importantly, he'll be further removed from his Lisfranc injury that cost him his entire 2021 rookie year. Etienne was an impressive runner in 2022, but he failed to live up to the pass-catching upside we saw in college as Lawrence's teammate. We know he can do it though, so he's another weapon for Lawrence.

In 2023, Lawrence will play eight of his 17 games against teams who finished as a bottom 12 defense against fantasy quarterbacks in 2022. While defenses can improve during the offseason, it looks like he'll have a soft schedule at many points in the year. In the AFC South, the Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts, and Houston Texans look to be in the midst of rebuilds, while the Jaguars are built to win now. Expect Lawrence to shred his division rivals.

Lawrence is coming off the board as the QB8 in early Best Ball drafts, via 4for4.com ADP, but if he sees a high touchdown rate year, he could be a contender for a top five finish at the position in 2023.

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