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Nick Mariano's Baller Ranks is a weekly fantasy baseball rankings list for the top 101 starting pitchers. He ranks and analyzes updated pitcher values for Week 5.
We are nearing May and therefore it's time to celebrate baseball's opening month and update my 2021 Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks, where we take stock of my top 101 SPs moving forward.
You know the deal, as the ranks table below comes with this google sheet that accompanies the table and adds a smattering of stats. Do note that I leave off most injured players, and removing those injured players can give an illusion that others have risen despite mediocre performances.
On that sheet, you will find the usual 5x5 categories, strikeout and walk rates, BABIP, and CSW% for now. Do note that other stats and time windows will be added, but I don't want to clog it up with noise while we're this early in the young season. Let's just get onto my Top 101 SPs!
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Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 5
| (+/-) | Tier | Player | Rank | $ | EV | $PV | Trend | Notes |
| 0 | 1 | Jacob deGrom | 1 | 43.0 | 14.4 | 43.0 | 0.0 ▬ | MLB's best pitcher is a pretty good hitter to boot |
| 1 | 1 | Gerrit Cole | 2 | 39.0 | 14.8 | 38.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| -1 | 1 | Shane Bieber | 3 | 38.0 | 7.3 | 39.0 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| 0 | 2 | Trevor Bauer | 4 | 34.0 | 4.6 | 34.0 | 0.0 ▬ | The .150 BABIP pops out but he's as advertised |
| 0 | 2 | Yu Darvish | 5 | 33.0 | 7.2 | 33.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 0 | 2 | Aaron Nola | 6 | 30.0 | 8.6 | 30.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 1 | 2 | Max Scherzer | 7 | 29.0 | 5.0 | 28.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 1 | 2 | Clayton Kershaw | 8 | 28.0 | 8.1 | 28.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -2 | 2 | Lucas Giolito | 9 | 28.0 | 3.0 | 29.0 | -1.0 ▼ | We were so close to a rebound start; should probably be lower |
| 0 | 3 | Corbin Burnes | 10 | 26.0 | 14.0 | 26.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Looked mortal vs. MIA but still didn't issue a walk! |
| 0 | 3 | Brandon Woodruff | 11 | 25.0 | 9.9 | 25.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Some batted-ball luck correction will come but he's stellar |
| 0 | 3 | Tyler Glasnow | 12 | 24.0 | 10.4 | 24.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Ditto |
| 0 | 3 | Lance Lynn | 13 | 24.0 | 7.6 | 24.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Set to return on Saturday, May 1 |
| 0 | 2 | Walker Buehler | 14 | 22.0 | 5.2 | 22.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Knew the Ks had to be coming |
| 2 | 2 | Jose Berrios | 15 | 22.0 | 7.2 | 21.0 | 1.0 ▲ | We've seen him fade after strong starts, is 2021 the year? |
| -1 | 4 | Luis Castillo | 16 | 21.0 | 0.2 | 22.0 | -1.0 ▼ | Being a slow-starter is one thing, but this is rough |
| -1 | 4 | Joe Musgrove | 17 | 21.0 | 7.5 | 21.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Needed 77 pitches for 3 IP @LAD; home vs. SF next |
| 0 | 3 | Hyun-Jin Ryu | 18 | 19.0 | 4.7 | 19.0 | 0.0 ▬ | May not need to miss a turn in rotation with glute strain |
| 1 | 3 | Blake Snell | 19 | 19.0 | 3.3 | 18.5 | 0.5 ▲ | Eventually, that lower IP ceiling will gnaw at you, output aside |
| 1 | 3 | Zack Wheeler | 20 | 19.0 | 5.0 | 16.5 | 2.5 ▲ | |
| 1 | 4 | Jack Flaherty | 21 | 16.5 | 3.6 | 16.0 | 0.5 ▲ | Not an SP1 but looking darn good after 2020's woes |
| 1 | 4 | Dylan Bundy | 22 | 16.0 | 2.4 | 15.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 1 | 4 | Zack Greinke | 23 | 15.0 | 3.7 | 14.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 2 | 4 | Zac Gallen | 24 | 14.0 | 3.4 | 13.0 | 1.0 ▲ | Congrats to those who got the injury discount |
| 2 | 4 | Kevin Gausman | 25 | 14.0 | 5.8 | 12.0 | 2.0 ▲ | Another low-BABIP arm but the Ks are rolling in |
| -7 | 5 | Kenta Maeda | 26 | 13.0 | -0.1 | 19.0 | -6.0 ▼ | You can be both bad and unlucky, locating horribly |
| 1 | 5 | Jesus Luzardo | 27 | 12.0 | 0.7 | 11.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 1 | 5 | Ian Anderson | 28 | 11.0 | 1.6 | 11.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -4 | 5 | Kyle Hendricks | 29 | 11.0 | -3.7 | 14.0 | -3.0 ▼ | Please find the command soon, 2 more HRs in last start |
| 3 | 5 | Sandy Alcantara | 30 | 10.5 | 4.7 | 9.5 | 1.0 ▲ | Throwing his changeup >20%, a legitimate 3rd pitch |
| -1 | 5 | Marcus Stroman | 31 | 10.0 | 4.4 | 10.0 | 0.0 ▬ | This is Greinke-esque and I'm here for it |
| 4 | 5 | Tyler Mahle | 32 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 0.5 ▲ | Want to cull the walks but clearly the formula is working |
| 1 | 5 | Zach Eflin | 33 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 9.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 1 | 5 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 34 | 9.5 | 3.1 | 9.0 | 0.5 ▲ | All Boston does is win when Eddy's on the bump |
| 16 | 6 | Trevor Rogers | 35 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 4.5 ▲ | Forget NL RoY, this man is heading towards Cy votes |
| 6 | 6 | Dustin May | 36 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 8.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 0 | 5 | Pablo Lopez | 37 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 9.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 3 | 5 | Julio Urias | 38 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 8.5 | 0.5 ▲ | Love that 32/6 K/BB ratio, being a Dodger yields wins |
| -8 | 5 | Sonny Gray | 39 | 8.5 | 0.0 | 9.5 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| -8 | 7 | Charlie Morton | 40 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 9.5 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| -3 | 7 | Lance McCullers Jr. | 41 | 8.5 | 1.6 | 8.5 | 0.0 ▬ | Only 44% first-strike rate; must sharpen efficiency, gifts too many BBs |
| -2 | 7 | Aaron Civale | 42 | 8.5 | 2.1 | 8.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 0 | 5 | Zach Plesac | 43 | 8.0 | 2.4 | 8.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 0 | 7 | Freddy Peralta | 44 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 8.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Only 4 IP last start after pinch-hit opp; constant, massive Ks |
| 3 | 6 | Cristian Javier | 45 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 ▲ | He dazzled in return to majors, the best of HOU's young crop |
| -7 | 7 | Frankie Montas | 46 | 8.0 | -0.5 | 8.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 2 | 5 | Michael Pineda | 47 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 5.0 | 1.5 ▲ | Some regression was coming, do not panic |
| 4 | 7 | John Means | 48 | 5.5 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.5 ▲ | Enjoyed some good luck, but pounding the zone does that |
| -- | 7 | Michael Kopech | 49 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 0.0 | 5.0 ▲ | |
| 4 | 7 | Nathan Eovaldi | 50 | 4.5 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 12 | 7 | Matthew Boyd | 51 | 4.5 | 8.4 | 2.5 | 2.0 ▲ | |
| 3 | 8 | Sean Manaea | 52 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Only 4 ER over last 4 starts (3-0), gets BAL at home next |
| 9 | 8 | Carlos Rodon | 53 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 ▲ | 3 starts, 3 wins, 3 gems, many ecstatic fantasy managers |
| -9 | 8 | Triston McKenzie | 54 | 4.0 | -1.1 | 8.0 | -4.0 ▼ | |
| -5 | 8 | Jordan Montgomery | 55 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 4.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| -10 | 6 | Shohei Ohtani | 56 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 8.0 | -4.0 ▼ | Possesses wicked arsenal but needs just a little control |
| -10 | 6 | Chris Paddack | 57 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 6.5 | -2.5 ▼ | |
| -2 | 7 | Marco Gonzales | 58 | 4.0 | -1.2 | 4.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -2 | 7 | Patrick Corbin | 59 | 2.0 | -3.7 | 4.0 | -2.0 ▼ | Mere 4.9% K-BB% is huge cause for alarm after horrid 2020 |
| -1 | 7 | Jose Urquidy | 60 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.5 ▲ | |
| -3 | 8 | German Marquez | 61 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| -1 | 10 | Andrew Heaney | 62 | 3.0 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 1 | 9 | Chris Bassitt | 63 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 0.0 ▬ | Early scuffles but 6 IP, 2 ER, 8 K in each of last 2 starts |
| 2 | 8 | Brady Singer | 64 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 2 | 7 | Taijuan Walker | 65 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 ▲ | 7 shutout frames vs. WSH; 4.12 xFIP, 4.83 SIERA are lurking |
| 2 | 8 | Dane Dunning | 66 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Hit hard by CHW but early 18.7% K-BB rate is encouraging |
| 6 | 9 | Steven Matz | 67 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| -3 | 9 | Jameson Taillon | 68 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 6 | 8 | Huascar Ynoa | 69 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| -10 | 9 | Yusei Kikuchi | 70 | 1.5 | -1.0 | 3.5 | -2.0 ▼ | Shows flashes but I fear inconsistency will hold him back |
| -2 | 9 | Dallas Keuchel | 71 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 2.0 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| -1 | 8 | Ryan Yarbrough | 72 | 1.5 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -3 | 10 | Corey Kluber | 73 | 1.5 | -1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ | Still scared but Tuesday's outing was a start |
| 10 | 9 | JT Brubaker | 74 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 ▲ | Tough-luck L vs. MIN after 7 IP, 2 ER. That's PIT, though |
| -3 | 4 | Zach Davies | 75 | 1.5 | -1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ | Wake Zach up when April ends, still more BBs than Ks |
| -2 | 9 | Dylan Cease | 76 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ | Yet to go full 5 IP so far; 39.2% 1st-strike rate is MLB-worst |
| 0 | 10 | Jon Gray | 77 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ | More sliders, more walks, fewer whiffs, better results? Hmm... |
| 1 | 9 | Alex Cobb | 78 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ | Still intrigued by the splitter, that .436 BABIP is sickening |
| -- | 10 | Anthony DeSclafani | 79 | 1.5 | 6.7 | 0.0 | 1.5 ▲ | CGSHO vs. Rockies, just remember he's capable of that |
| 1 | 9 | Griffin Canning | 80 | 1.5 | -2.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 1 | 9 | Matt Shoemaker | 81 | 1.0 | -1.2 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 1 | 9 | Adbert Alzolay | 82 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 2 | 10 | Danny Duffy | 83 | 1.0 | 7.2 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 2 | 10 | Kyle Gibson | 84 | 1.0 | 6.4 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -- | 10 | Alex Wood | 85 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 3 | 10 | Jakob Junis | 86 | 1.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Hello, cutter; 9 Ks on Tuesday |
| 4 | 10 | Adam Wainwright | 87 | 1.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -12 | 10 | Casey Mize | 88 | 1.0 | -1.7 | 1.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| -2 | 10 | J.A. Happ | 89 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 10 | 10 | Chris Flexen | 90 | 1.0 | 5.2 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | A strong streamer to play in green and neutral matchups |
| -3 | 10 | David Peterson | 91 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 0 | 10 | Deivi Garcia | 92 | 1.0 | -0.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -- | 10 | Madison Bumgarner | 93 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | No matter your no-hit stance, he gets road Rockies next |
| -- | 10 | Cole Irvin | 94 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | B2B wins vs. DET & BAL, lighter matchups but still did his job |
| -- | 10 | Wade Miley | 95 | 1.0 | 3.7 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| -2 | 10 | Kohei Arihara | 96 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Soiled his momentum with a clunker, MLB-level resilience? |
| -2 | 10 | Mike Minor | 97 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -2 | 8 | Michael Wacha | 98 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -- | 10 | Jake Arrieta | 99 | 1.0 | 4.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| -1 | 10 | Taylor Widener | 100 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -- | 4 | Aaron Sanchez | 101 | 1.0 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
Quick Notes on Movers
-Without much movement at the top, we'll give Zack Wheeler his due after an eight-inning gem on Monday night. He surrendered just one run on one hit and three walks against nine strikeouts -- his second start of one-hit ball with nine-plus K's thus far. It was a welcome bounce-back after a three-homer day against the Giants and reminds us all that Wheeler can be dominant, not just good.
-Kenta Maeda continued to hang pitches on Tuesday, yielding five earned on three homers across 5 2/3 IP against Cleveland. He's now been tagged for seven round-trippers in only 23 1/3 IP, with a wild 2.7 HR/9 inflating his 6.56 ERA. The 4.21 xFIP gives some hope but how do you assume a league-average homer rate given his rusty command? It's one thing not to assume his 2020 form was the new norm, it's another to see him fail to beat hitters in the zone. I'm worried, but it's also a long season and his ceiling remains high.
-Tyler Mahle, who is currently the most trustworthy Cincinnati pitcher, limited a potent Dodgers lineup to one run over five frames on Tuesday. His crisp slider continues to stifle batters while his heater regularly sniffs 95 mph. This has meant fewer batters squaring up his pitches (a mere 11.5% line-drive rate!). He has a low 2.82 FIP and 3.18 SIERA underneath his impressive 1.75 ERA.
-Trevor Rogers has gone toe-to-toe with Jacob deGrom and Corbin Burnes, the two best pitchers in the game according to 9 out of 10 Twitter-ers. That 17.6% swinging-strike rate is fourth-best among starting pitchers (deGrom, Burnes, and Shane Bieber) and he's had one measly barrel against him through five outings. That makes him one of four qualified SPs with just one barreled ball through April 26, a club of four out of 116 arms.
-I'm putting Michael Kopech here because he's made two starts, gosh darnit. Is he likely headed back to a swingman/bullpen role once Lance Lynn returns? Probably. But he held Boston to two baserunners over three innings on April 18 while Texas only reached base four times in five frames against him while striking out 10 times on April 25. His overall 27/4 K/BB ratio in just 15 2/3 IP is comical, and the accompanying 53.8% groundball rate is just cruel. It's no wonder his 1.72 ERA is actually higher than his 1.24 FIP, 1.30 xFIP, and 1.60 SIERA.
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