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The Baller Ranks: Weekly Top 101 Starting Pitcher Rankings

Trevor Rogers - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB DFS Picks, Betting Picks

Nick Mariano's Baller Ranks is a weekly fantasy baseball rankings list for the top 101 starting pitchers. He ranks and analyzes updated pitcher values for Week 5.

We are nearing May and therefore it's time to celebrate baseball's opening month and update my 2021 Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks, where we take stock of my top 101 SPs moving forward.

You know the deal, as the ranks table below comes with this google sheet that accompanies the table and adds a smattering of stats. Do note that I leave off most injured players, and removing those injured players can give an illusion that others have risen despite mediocre performances.

On that sheet, you will find the usual 5x5 categories, strikeout and walk rates, BABIP, and CSW% for now. Do note that other stats and time windows will be added, but I don't want to clog it up with noise while we're this early in the young season. Let's just get onto my Top 101 SPs!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 5

(+/-) Tier Player Rank $ EV $PV Trend Notes
0 1 Jacob deGrom 1 43.0 14.4 43.0 0.0 ▬ MLB's best pitcher is a pretty good hitter to boot
1 1 Gerrit Cole 2 39.0 14.8 38.0 1.0 ▲
-1 1 Shane Bieber 3 38.0 7.3 39.0 -1.0 ▼
0 2 Trevor Bauer 4 34.0 4.6 34.0 0.0 ▬ The .150 BABIP pops out but he's as advertised
0 2 Yu Darvish 5 33.0 7.2 33.0 0.0 ▬
0 2 Aaron Nola 6 30.0 8.6 30.0 0.0 ▬
1 2 Max Scherzer 7 29.0 5.0 28.0 1.0 ▲
1 2 Clayton Kershaw 8 28.0 8.1 28.0 0.0 ▬
-2 2 Lucas Giolito 9 28.0 3.0 29.0 -1.0 ▼ We were so close to a rebound start; should probably be lower
0 3 Corbin Burnes 10 26.0 14.0 26.0 0.0 ▬ Looked mortal vs. MIA but still didn't issue a walk!
0 3 Brandon Woodruff 11 25.0 9.9 25.0 0.0 ▬ Some batted-ball luck correction will come but he's stellar
0 3 Tyler Glasnow 12 24.0 10.4 24.0 0.0 ▬ Ditto
0 3 Lance Lynn 13 24.0 7.6 24.0 0.0 ▬ Set to return on Saturday, May 1
0 2 Walker Buehler 14 22.0 5.2 22.0 0.0 ▬ Knew the Ks had to be coming
2 2 Jose Berrios 15 22.0 7.2 21.0 1.0 ▲ We've seen him fade after strong starts, is 2021 the year?
-1 4 Luis Castillo 16 21.0 0.2 22.0 -1.0 ▼ Being a slow-starter is one thing, but this is rough
-1 4 Joe Musgrove 17 21.0 7.5 21.0 0.0 ▬ Needed 77 pitches for 3 IP @LAD; home vs. SF next
0 3 Hyun-Jin Ryu 18 19.0 4.7 19.0 0.0 ▬ May not need to miss a turn in rotation with glute strain
1 3 Blake Snell 19 19.0 3.3 18.5 0.5 ▲ Eventually, that lower IP ceiling will gnaw at you, output aside
1 3 Zack Wheeler 20 19.0 5.0 16.5 2.5 ▲
1 4 Jack Flaherty 21 16.5 3.6 16.0 0.5 ▲ Not an SP1 but looking darn good after 2020's woes
1 4 Dylan Bundy 22 16.0 2.4 15.0 1.0 ▲
1 4 Zack Greinke 23 15.0 3.7 14.0 1.0 ▲
2 4 Zac Gallen 24 14.0 3.4 13.0 1.0 ▲ Congrats to those who got the injury discount
2 4 Kevin Gausman 25 14.0 5.8 12.0 2.0 ▲ Another low-BABIP arm but the Ks are rolling in
-7 5 Kenta Maeda 26 13.0 -0.1 19.0 -6.0 ▼ You can be both bad and unlucky, locating horribly
1 5 Jesus Luzardo 27 12.0 0.7 11.0 1.0 ▲
1 5 Ian Anderson 28 11.0 1.6 11.0 0.0 ▬
-4 5 Kyle Hendricks 29 11.0 -3.7 14.0 -3.0 ▼ Please find the command soon, 2 more HRs in last start
3 5 Sandy Alcantara 30 10.5 4.7 9.5 1.0 ▲ Throwing his changeup >20%, a legitimate 3rd pitch
-1 5 Marcus Stroman 31 10.0 4.4 10.0 0.0 ▬ This is Greinke-esque and I'm here for it
4 5 Tyler Mahle 32 9.5 6.2 9.0 0.5 ▲ Want to cull the walks but clearly the formula is working
1 5 Zach Eflin 33 9.5 4.9 9.5 0.0 ▬
1 5 Eduardo Rodriguez 34 9.5 3.1 9.0 0.5 ▲ All Boston does is win when Eddy's on the bump
16 6 Trevor Rogers 35 9.0 8.1 4.5 4.5 ▲ Forget NL RoY, this man is heading towards Cy votes
6 6 Dustin May 36 9.0 4.3 8.0 1.0 ▲
0 5 Pablo Lopez 37 9.0 5.1 9.0 0.0 ▬
3 5 Julio Urias 38 9.0 6.4 8.5 0.5 ▲ Love that 32/6 K/BB ratio, being a Dodger yields wins
-8 5 Sonny Gray 39 8.5 0.0 9.5 -1.0 ▼
-8 7 Charlie Morton 40 8.5 4.9 9.5 -1.0 ▼
-3 7 Lance McCullers Jr. 41 8.5 1.6 8.5 0.0 ▬ Only 44% first-strike rate; must sharpen efficiency, gifts too many BBs
-2 7 Aaron Civale 42 8.5 2.1 8.5 0.0 ▬
0 5 Zach Plesac 43 8.0 2.4 8.0 0.0 ▬
0 7 Freddy Peralta 44 8.0 5.3 8.0 0.0 ▬ Only 4 IP last start after pinch-hit opp; constant, massive Ks
3 6 Cristian Javier 45 8.0 5.0 5.5 2.5 ▲ He dazzled in return to majors, the best of HOU's young crop
-7 7 Frankie Montas 46 8.0 -0.5 8.5 -0.5 ▼
2 5 Michael Pineda 47 6.5 2.3 5.0 1.5 ▲ Some regression was coming, do not panic
4 7 John Means 48 5.5 6.6 4.0 1.5 ▲ Enjoyed some good luck, but pounding the zone does that
-- 7 Michael Kopech 49 5.0 5.7 0.0 5.0 ▲
4 7 Nathan Eovaldi 50 4.5 8.9 4.0 0.5 ▲
12 7 Matthew Boyd 51 4.5 8.4 2.5 2.0 ▲
3 8 Sean Manaea 52 4.0 4.5 4.0 0.0 ▬ Only 4 ER over last 4 starts (3-0), gets BAL at home next
9 8 Carlos Rodon 53 4.0 3.9 3.0 1.0 ▲ 3 starts, 3 wins, 3 gems, many ecstatic fantasy managers
-9 8 Triston McKenzie 54 4.0 -1.1 8.0 -4.0 ▼
-5 8 Jordan Montgomery 55 4.0 0.9 4.5 -0.5 ▼
-10 6 Shohei Ohtani 56 4.0 1.3 8.0 -4.0 ▼ Possesses wicked arsenal but needs just a little control
-10 6 Chris Paddack 57 4.0 3.1 6.5 -2.5 ▼
-2 7 Marco Gonzales 58 4.0 -1.2 4.0 0.0 ▬
-2 7 Patrick Corbin 59 2.0 -3.7 4.0 -2.0 ▼ Mere 4.9% K-BB% is huge cause for alarm after horrid 2020
-1 7 Jose Urquidy 60 3.5 2.7 2.0 1.5 ▲
-3 8 German Marquez 61 3.0 3.0 4.0 -1.0 ▼
-1 10 Andrew Heaney 62 3.0 5.7 3.0 0.0 ▬
1 9 Chris Bassitt 63 2.5 3.7 2.5 0.0 ▬ Early scuffles but 6 IP, 2 ER, 8 K in each of last 2 starts
2 8 Brady Singer 64 2.5 4.0 2.0 0.5 ▲
2 7 Taijuan Walker 65 2.5 4.2 2.0 0.5 ▲ 7 shutout frames vs. WSH; 4.12 xFIP, 4.83 SIERA are lurking
2 8 Dane Dunning 66 2.0 4.2 2.0 0.0 ▬ Hit hard by CHW but early 18.7% K-BB rate is encouraging
6 9 Steven Matz 67 2.0 3.3 1.5 0.5 ▲
-3 9 Jameson Taillon 68 2.0 2.2 2.5 -0.5 ▼
6 8 Huascar Ynoa 69 2.0 1.5 1.5 0.5 ▲
-10 9 Yusei Kikuchi 70 1.5 -1.0 3.5 -2.0 ▼ Shows flashes but I fear inconsistency will hold him back
-2 9 Dallas Keuchel 71 1.5 1.2 2.0 -0.5 ▼
-1 8 Ryan Yarbrough 72 1.5 4.2 1.5 0.0 ▬
-3 10 Corey Kluber 73 1.5 -1.5 1.5 0.0 ▬ Still scared but Tuesday's outing was a start
10 9 JT Brubaker 74 1.5 1.9 1.0 0.5 ▲ Tough-luck L vs. MIN after 7 IP, 2 ER. That's PIT, though
-3 4 Zach Davies 75 1.5 -1.5 1.5 0.0 ▬ Wake Zach up when April ends, still more BBs than Ks
-2 9 Dylan Cease 76 1.5 1.0 1.5 0.0 ▬ Yet to go full 5 IP so far; 39.2% 1st-strike rate is MLB-worst
0 10 Jon Gray 77 1.5 3.3 1.5 0.0 ▬ More sliders, more walks, fewer whiffs, better results? Hmm...
1 9 Alex Cobb 78 1.5 3.2 1.5 0.0 ▬ Still intrigued by the splitter, that .436 BABIP is sickening
-- 10 Anthony DeSclafani 79 1.5 6.7 0.0 1.5 ▲ CGSHO vs. Rockies, just remember he's capable of that
1 9 Griffin Canning 80 1.5 -2.7 1.0 0.5 ▲
1 9 Matt Shoemaker 81 1.0 -1.2 1.0 0.0 ▬
1 9 Adbert Alzolay 82 1.0 2.3 1.0 0.0 ▬
2 10 Danny Duffy 83 1.0 7.2 1.0 0.0 ▬
2 10 Kyle Gibson 84 1.0 6.4 1.0 0.0 ▬
-- 10 Alex Wood 85 1.0 2.6 0.0 1.0 ▲
3 10 Jakob Junis 86 1.0 3.1 1.0 0.0 ▬ Hello, cutter; 9 Ks on Tuesday
4 10 Adam Wainwright 87 1.0 3.1 1.0 0.0 ▬
-12 10 Casey Mize 88 1.0 -1.7 1.5 -0.5 ▼
-2 10 J.A. Happ 89 1.0 1.6 1.0 0.0 ▬
10 10 Chris Flexen 90 1.0 5.2 1.0 0.0 ▬ A strong streamer to play in green and neutral matchups
-3 10 David Peterson 91 1.0 0.7 1.0 0.0 ▬
0 10 Deivi Garcia 92 1.0 -0.3 1.0 0.0 ▬
-- 10 Madison Bumgarner 93 1.0 2.1 0.0 1.0 ▲ No matter your no-hit stance, he gets road Rockies next
-- 10 Cole Irvin 94 1.0 2.7 0.0 1.0 ▲ B2B wins vs. DET & BAL, lighter matchups but still did his job
-- 10 Wade Miley 95 1.0 3.7 0.0 1.0 ▲
-2 10 Kohei Arihara 96 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.0 ▬ Soiled his momentum with a clunker, MLB-level resilience?
-2 10 Mike Minor 97 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.0 ▬
-2 8 Michael Wacha 98 1.0 1.6 1.0 0.0 ▬
-- 10 Jake Arrieta 99 1.0 4.3 0.0 1.0 ▲
-1 10 Taylor Widener 100 1.0 0.7 1.0 0.0 ▬
-- 4 Aaron Sanchez 101 1.0 2.8 0.0 1.0 ▲

Quick Notes on Movers

-Without much movement at the top, we'll give Zack Wheeler his due after an eight-inning gem on Monday night. He surrendered just one run on one hit and three walks against nine strikeouts -- his second start of one-hit ball with nine-plus K's thus far. It was a welcome bounce-back after a three-homer day against the Giants and reminds us all that Wheeler can be dominant, not just good.

-Kenta Maeda continued to hang pitches on Tuesday, yielding five earned on three homers across 5 2/3 IP against Cleveland. He's now been tagged for seven round-trippers in only 23 1/3 IP, with a wild 2.7 HR/9 inflating his 6.56 ERA. The 4.21 xFIP gives some hope but how do you assume a league-average homer rate given his rusty command? It's one thing not to assume his 2020 form was the new norm, it's another to see him fail to beat hitters in the zone. I'm worried, but it's also a long season and his ceiling remains high.

-Tyler Mahle, who is currently the most trustworthy Cincinnati pitcher, limited a potent Dodgers lineup to one run over five frames on Tuesday. His crisp slider continues to stifle batters while his heater regularly sniffs 95 mph. This has meant fewer batters squaring up his pitches (a mere 11.5% line-drive rate!). He has a low 2.82 FIP and 3.18 SIERA underneath his impressive 1.75 ERA.

-Trevor Rogers has gone toe-to-toe with Jacob deGrom and Corbin Burnes, the two best pitchers in the game according to 9 out of 10 Twitter-ers. That 17.6% swinging-strike rate is fourth-best among starting pitchers (deGrom, Burnes, and Shane Bieber) and he's had one measly barrel against him through five outings. That makes him one of four qualified SPs with just one barreled ball through April 26, a club of four out of 116 arms.

-I'm putting Michael Kopech here because he's made two starts, gosh darnit. Is he likely headed back to a swingman/bullpen role once Lance Lynn returns? Probably. But he held Boston to two baserunners over three innings on April 18 while Texas only reached base four times in five frames against him while striking out 10 times on April 25. His overall 27/4 K/BB ratio in just 15 2/3 IP is comical, and the accompanying 53.8% groundball rate is just cruel. It's no wonder his 1.72 ERA is actually higher than his 1.24 FIP, 1.30 xFIP, and 1.60 SIERA.



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