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Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is a top fantasy football option, but can he recapture his 2019 and 2020 magic? Aidin Ebrahimi explores why Jackson could end 2023 as the league-winning QB.
What defines a league-winning quarterback? It's a QB who can not only outperform his ADP but also be consistent late in the season, especially throughout the fantasy playoff weeks. A great example was Joe Burrow in 2021.
Looking past the "Big Four" of Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, and Burrow, the only three other serious candidates are Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields, and Justin Herbert. While Fields and Herbert have the potential to be the QB1 and win you a fantasy title, we're going to stick to Lamar Jackson. The guy who has already been a QB1 and a league-winning QB. He is looking to bounce back following two injury-riddled campaigns.
With that in mind, this article will look at why Lamar Jackson could silence all of his doubters once again, prove his experience over Herbert and Fields, and be this season's fantasy football league-winning quarterback.
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2018-2020: Been There, Done That
When Ozzie Newsome took Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson with the final pick of the first round in the 2018 draft, many thought that it'd at least take two or three years before Jackson became the starter. Although things were headed in that direction early on, HC John Harbaugh still found some creative ways to utilize Jackson and give him some playing time on the field.
When Joe Flacco went down before a Week 10 showdown against the Bengals, Jackson finally got the start and never looked back. Jackson went 6-1 as the starter and averaged 19 fantasy points a game (FPPG). He also averaged an astonishing 79.4 rushing yards per game in that stretch. That is more than 2022 Justin Fields and 2006 Michael Vick, a sign of things to come.
In the lead-up to the 2019 season, the Ravens decided to change their entire offensive philosophy to fit Jackson and were rewarded greatly. The Ravens started the 2019 season 2-2, and while Jackson posted a 109.4 passer rating in those four games, his passing declined dramatically in the next three games, averaging a passer rating of 69.
Coming out of a bye week, many thought that Jackson's 2019 season would be filled with more ups and downs as he continued to grow as a passer. Had the season ended there, Ravens fans would have been satisfied with Jackson. They had no idea that coming out of the bye week, he would have one of the greatest stretches ever by an NFL player.
In eight games, Jackson went 8-0, threw 25 touchdowns to just one pick, posted a sparkling 130.3 passer rating, and ran for 630 yards and four touchdowns. Jackson went from an afterthought in the MVP race to the clear-cut, unanimous MVP, stealing the award from Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers' grasps. Jackson finished the year as the overall fantasy football QB1 and led all signal callers in fantasy points by a wide margin.
Jackson had one of the greatest fantasy seasons ever by any player, not just by a QB. Despite a disappointing playoff loss to the rival Titans, Jackson had another great season in 2020, where he shined during the fantasy playoffs. Scoring 111.6 fantasy points from weeks 14-17, Jackson finished as the 2020 fantasy playoffs QB1. He only dropped back to pass 83 times in that span, but his 118.6 rating and nine touchdowns to just two picks showed his efficiency. Furthermore, Jackson’s 336 rushing yards and three rushing scores led to many fantasy managers winning their leagues that year.
2021-2022: The Injury Bug
Having a dual-threat quarterback has many benefits, both on and off the field. Their running ability can open up their passing, which can lead to many wins. They also have an electrifying style of play, which brings in a lot of extra fans and revenue. There are some downsides, the biggest of them being injuries.
For a while, it was looking like Jackson would be one of the most durable dual-threat QBs ever. He had only ever missed one game (during his freshman season at Louisville) due to injury since entering college, but in 2021, the injury bug finally struck. First was a concussion he suffered in his playoff loss against Buffalo, and then he got hurt before week four. He played through the injury and despite playing well initially, his play gradually declined, before getting hurt again, ending his season.
Jackson looked to bounce back in 2022, and many fantasy managers believed in him as he was on average the fourth QB taken in 2022 fantasy drafts. Jackson started 2022 like a house on fire, being the top MVP candidate after the first three weeks and winning AFC Offensive Player of the Month. However, his play declined dramatically in the following weeks.
Jackson bounced back with a dominant performance against a solid Buccaneers defense in Week 8 but got hurt a few weeks later against the Broncos. This prematurely ended his season for the second season in a row. He demanded a trade from the Ravens organization as a ploy to get the contract extension he deserved. He eventually agreed with the team on a then-NFL record contract.
2023: Why Jackson Will Lead You To A Fantasy Football Title
The Ravens made a lot of moves in the offseason, the biggest of them being their change of offensive coordinator. From 2019 to 2022, Greg Roman employed a running-based option offense with the team, getting great results. His replacement is former Bucs and Browns OC Todd Monken, who employed the Air Coryell throughout his time with Tampa and Cleveland.
Although he didn't find much success with the likes of Jameis Winston, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Baker Mayfield under center, his offenses generated a large amount of passing yards in 2017 and 2018. He was also the OC of the Georgia Bulldogs, where he won a national championship while Stetson Bennett threw for 4,127 yards. While he doesn't have the best track record, he'll be a pretty good fit with Jackson, who desperately needs to rack up passing yards to shut his critics up.
Well, to rack up yards through the air you need weapons, and Jackson has plenty of weapons at his disposal this season. Starting with one of the best TEs in the NFL today, Mark Andrews. Andrews finally started in every game he played last season and was his typical dominant self. He's no Travis Kelce, but he's in the upper echelon.
His amazing 2021 season (1,361 yards and nine touchdowns) showcases why. Rashod Bateman, Isaiah Likely, and Devin Duvernay are three young, talented pass catchers who are ready to prove themselves. Former Super Bowl champ Nelson Agholor adds some much-needed veteran presence to the receiving core. We haven't even addressed the elephants in the room yet.
The NFL's biggest social media star and future Hollywood megastar (you heard it here first), Odell Beckham Jr., is potentially looking to retire in Baltimore. He'll be playing with the best quarterback he has ever played with. We've seen what he could do with a good QB in his prime. He averaged 72 yards a game in four playoff games when Matthew Stafford was throwing to him in the Rams' 2021 Super Bowl run, and that is with him missing most of the Super Bowl itself.
We'll see if Beckham still has what it takes after such a devastating ACL injury. If he doesn't, rookie wideout Zay Flowers has been impressing everyone this offseason. The 22nd overall pick in this year's draft could realistically finish this season as Baltimore's WR1.
Now that Kenyan Drake (who was the team's top non-QB rusher last year) is gone, Jackson truly has to carry the load on the run. Yes, there will be fewer running plays specifically designed for Jackson this season. His abilities as a scrambler ensure that he can get around the same amount of rushing yards he got last year (764), but this time in 17 games. Out of all the seasons where a QB rushed for 764+ yards, only one (2020 Kyler Murray) has thrown for 3,500+ yards.
Considering all of his weapons, the philosophy change, and the fact that Jackson has been wanting to be recognized as a pure passer for so long, Jackson can be the second person on that list this season. As for his OL, Joe D'Alessandris is back for another year with his dominant offensive line, which should give Jackson more protection. The defense is still very good, which now includes former first-overall pick Jadeveon Clowney, who signed with the Ravens in the midst of writing this piece.
Lamar Jackson 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
When healthy, Jackson is an absolute game-changer, and probably one of the safest picks you can make for a QB. Injuries have been the main thing holding him back from another MVP and QB1 finish in fantasy, but he'd have to be extremely unlucky if he got hurt for a third year in a row. As previously stated, before 2021 Jackson was very durable and we can hope that these two injury-riddled seasons were just exceptions rather than the rule.
If you want to go with Fields or Herbert as your potential league-winning QB outside of the "Big Four", it'd be safer and less risky to pick someone who was QB1 in 2019 and was the fantasy playoff league-winning QB in 2020. The floor is if he gets hurt again, and even then, you would still be looking as a top-14 QB. The ceiling, however, is through the roof, especially with his new play style and additional weapons. Picking Jackson would be a smart choice because if everything goes right, he can very well be this year's MVP, QB1, and league-winning quarterback.
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