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The Daily Divide: Week Four DFS


Daily Divide: Week Four

Matt and Nathan each offer Week 4 cash game picks for every position, then the other insults or compliments those picks, as warranted. They hope their arguments debates provide enough information to make help people make their own decisions. Matt probably makes more good points than Nathan though, over the long haul, so please pay special attention to his thoughts in this piece.

Nathan: I’m not sure why I told Matt he could write the opening paragraph. I’m right way more than him. I mean, I did recommend Tyler Eifert in Week One, so….I'm pretty much a genius.

You can follow the great Matt Rittle on twitter: @ffrittle -- and the just okay Nathan Powell on twitter: @npowellff.  Nathan: ...Seriously?

Editor's Note: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive In-Season Lineup Tools, Lineup Optimizer and over 150 days of Premium DFS Research. Sign Up Now!

 

Nathan’s DFS Picks for Week Four

QB: Andrew Luck vs JAC
After Andrew Luck’s slow start, some people may be beginning to fade him, but this would be the wrong week to do that. The Colts are 9.5 point favorites against the Jaguars with a team total of 36.5. This shows that Vegas isn't too worried about the injury that has limited Andrew Luck in practice this week. If it turns out Luck is out, I am pivoting to Matt's selection below, because his recommendation is good at football. I recommended a top QB against the Jags last week too, so maybe I’m just Captain Obvious at this point.

Stacking: There are a few stacking options for Luck this week. The obvious one is TY Hilton and that is definitely a solid option. If Dwayne Allen is still out, Coby Fleener is also a nice cheap TE option.

Matt: Luck will break out of his funk at some point, but I’m not paying his exorbitant price hoping this is the week. With Hilton in a not too dissimilar boat (only related to health), both are GPP plays only this weekend IMHFO

Nathan: Hilton isn't listed on the Colts injury report as of Friday morning, so I'm not too worried about Hilton.

 

RB: Matt Forte vs OAK
I jostled back and forth throughout the week on whether to go with Matt Forte or Latavius Murray here as I like both backs in this game. With so many of the top running backs with injury/usage concerns, Forte is my favorite high end running back this week. Jimmy Clausen is his quarterback and the Bears are 3 point home underdogs, but I think those are factored into his lower than usual price. The Raiders have been #notgood against running backs so far this season, allowing the most fantasy points to backs so far this season. They have also allowed the 7th most receiving yards to running backs, Forte has always been known for his receiving acumen and he had 9 receptions in the first two games before catching 0 passes in a blow out loss to the Seahawks.

Matt: The good news is Forte offers up a high floor of points, even if he doesn’t end up scoring the gaudy numbers hoped for when playing top RBs. While I admit the Bears fan in me gives me some irrational weebles here (seriously, Clausen is horrible), those are some helpful matchups stats you offered up. He isn’t currently in my plans, but I can definitely understand the play.

 

WR: Pierre Garcon vs PHI
If you are looking for a mid-low priced wide receiver option this week, Pierre Garçon is your man. Garcon has provided a nice weekly PPR floor so far this season, catching at least five passes in each of first three games. This week, Garcon will matchup against Byron Maxwell and an Eagles secondary has allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers so far this season. Even Kirk Cousins can't screw up this good of a play, hopefully.

Stacking: Kirk Cousins isn't good. No stack here.

Matt: We haven’t seen much upside yet, so beware in GPP lineups, but Garcon has been a nice high floor cash play with DeSean Jackson out.

Nathan: Byron Maxwell has proven to increase the upside of receivers. But yeah, I see him as more of a cash game play than a GPP play this week.

 

TE: Tyler Eifert vs KCC
Tyler Eifert had a big ole goose egg last week which has brought his price down back to a more reasonable price. What the numbers don't show is Eiffert would've scored for the 3rd time in as many weeks if the NFL knew what a catch is....(oops. Personal tangent). I think Eifert returns to his early season form and gets back into the end zone for the Bengals. The pickens are slim in this Gronk-less slate, so I'll go with the cheaper option with TE1 overall for the week upside.

Stacking: Dalton/Eifert definitely looks intriguing this week. But like last week with Foles/Cook, it is purely a GPP play. Hopefully this one works out a little better.

Matt: Really tough TE slate. Might as well favor cheap talent. 

 

Matt’s DFS Picks for Week Four

QB: Aaron Rodgers at SFO
Rodgers finished as QB13 in Week Two, but was also only two points shy of being QB8 on the week. (High Floor). He’s also finished as QB5 in Week One and QB1 in Week Three. (High Ceiling). NumberFire metrics rank his Week Four opponent, the 49ers, as the seventh worst in the league against the pass. ProFootballFocus similarly grades their secondary as the fourth weakest, with only defensive back grading out positively. Aaron Rodgers, once again playing his way into MVP consideration, may be worth every penny of his price this weekend.

Stacking: Rodgers and Randall Cobb make an excellent, if expensive stack in cash. Underpriced relative his role following the Davante Adams injury, James Jones makes for a slightly cheaper stack but still solid stack, as well. In a GPP, I might even roll out all three together.

Nathan: Rodgers is likely safer than Luck this week, so it becomes about how big the price difference is for deciding which of the two I am playing on a site.

 

RB: Karlos Williams vs NYG
The fifth round rookie has really impressed in limited work thus far. Having played about 30% of the team’s snaps thus far he’s logged only 24 carries, but has still amassed 186 yards as well as several impressive stats: eight first downs, three touchdowns, and two runs over 20 yards. Through three weeks, only four players have more twenty plus yard runs. If you’re into ProFootballFocus measurements of players, he grades out as a top 10 RB at the moment. So Is Williams as good as these early attempts make him look? Honestly I’m not sure. But with lead RB LeSean McCoy already ruled out for Sunday’s tilt he does figure to get a full workload in versus a Giants defense allowing over 20 fantasy points per game to RBs. Even if he doesn’t show this same upside Sunday, his projected workload would still figure to give Williams a nice floor, especially for his price.

Nathan: He's cheap, going to get carries and I like him as a talent, but idk...this feels like one of those trap plays. I'm playing him, but I'm scared.

 

WR: Amari Cooper at CHI
Ranking in the top 10 in passing attempts, passing yards, and total offense per game, Oakland’s offense has really raced out of the gate. Top four draft pick and rookie phenom Amari Cooper has been a big part of that, with 31 targets already on the year. Cooper has been simply magnificent the last two weeks, putting up 7-109-1 and 8-134-0 lines respectively on 11 targets each week. Facing a Bears’ defense NumberFire metrics rank as the most generous defense in the league, the Raiders offense and Cooper figure to continue to pile up the real and fake football stats. Still priced in the mid-ranges most places, Cooper may literally be in every lineup I make this weekend on any site.

Stacking: Carr makes a reasonable if slightly risky stack in cash, and a fine stack in GPP.

Nathan: Cooper has been as good as advertised so far this season. And Carr has been pretty good too. They are road favorites in Chicago, I like this pick.

 

TE: Coby Fleener vs JAC
When playing without teammate and fellow TE Dwayne Allen, Fleener has put up fringe TE1 numbers, averaging around a 4-50-.4 line. Nathan and I debated the trust-worthiness or nervousness surrounding the Colts offense above, and all that still applies here. That’s all I really have: he’s cheap and has been successful in the past when Allen doesn’t suit up. I’m not a fan of this TE slate whatsoever, so you just have to pick your (cheap) poison.

Nathan: Fleener is a nice cheap option as long as Allen is out.

Matt: Very informative Nathan. Thank you.

 

Watch The Pricing, But We Also Like

Nathan likes: Cam Newton, Karlos Williams, Latavius Murray, Marvin Jones, Randall Cobb, Richard Rodgers

Matt likes: Tyrod Taylor, Jamaal Charles, Devonta Freeman, Randall Cobb, James Jones, Julio Jones

 

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