RADIO
Michael Florio's fantasy football sneaky starts, pivot plays, and post-waiver waiver pickups for Week 11 of 2024. Start 'em as under-the-radar fantasy sleepers.
There are just four weeks left of the fantasy football regular season. Enjoy it while it lasts because before you know it, it’ll be gone. It also means you have four weeks to get your team into the playoffs.
In many of my leagues, the last playoff spot is around .500. In some, a team below .500 currently holds that spot. I am sure many of your leagues are that way as well. That means you have four weeks to get your team into the dance.
To make the final four weeks tougher, we are about to get a ton of teams on byes. That means many of you will need replacements. This should help you find the best option and hopefully keep your playoff hopes alive.
Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.
Sneaky Starts and Pivot Options
If you need a QB…
Russell Wilson has played well this season, averaging 18.9 fantasy PPG as the Steelers starter. He also has a fantastic matchup this week. Baltimore has allowed the most passing yards and touchdowns to QBs this season. QBs go off against it weekly and only one has failed to reach 20 against it since Week 5. It was Bo Nix, who scored 17.7 fantasy points. Not only that, but its good offense forces QBs to throw more against it. Start Russ.
Justin Herbert has averaged 21.0 fantasy PPG in his last three games with at least 19.0 in each. He has been putting up bigger numbers in the passing game and has started running a bit more, showing that his foot injury is in the past. Now, he gets the Bengals, who are top five in the NFL both in the year and in the last month for opposing QBs to play against. It may be the first shootout the Chargers are in this season. Herbert is back in play in fantasy.
Bo Nix played extremely well against the Chiefs last week. He now has averaged 20.3 fantasy PPG in his last six games, with only one below 15 in that span. He can be started against the Falcons, who have allowed the third-most passing yards and touchdowns since Week 6. They’ve allowed the sixth-most fantasy PPG in the last month. They’ve also allowed the third-most rushing yards to QBs, which is huge since Nix can run.
Drake Maye continues to show flashes that he not only belongs in the NFL but that he has a very high ceiling once his situation improves. Not only does he have a big arm and is always capable of connecting on a deep one, but he runs. In his five starts, he is averaging 44 rushing yards per game. The Rams are in the top 10 in touchdown passes allowed. He is an upside bye-week replacement. If you miss out on him, Jameis Winston is another option.
I mean look at this! Josh Allen likepic.twitter.com/R1KKgbOuPe https://t.co/uiopckZDqI
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) November 10, 2024
If you need an RB…
Jaylen Warren had a season-high in touches last week. He also looked the healthiest he has at any point this season. The Steelers play the Ravens, who excel at stopping the run. They do struggle, though, against backs in the passing game, having allowed the third-most receiving yards to the position. Warren is sneaky due to his pass-catching role and explosiveness. He could outscore Najee Harris this week, who is now dealing with an ankle injury.
Audric Estime appears to have taken over the Broncos backfield. He played 46 percent of the snaps and had 14 carries last week, finishing with 53 yards. He seems like more of a floor play since the passing game work went to the other backs, but he still impressed, considering he had the toughest matchup for an RB last week in the Chiefs. He has a shot for better results this week against the Falcons, who have allowed the ninth-most fantasy PPG to RBs in the last month.
We’re seeing a changing of the guard in the Broncos’ backfield 👀
Audric Estime earned…
🔸 2 of the 3 Red Zone carries
🔹 82% of the RB carry share
🔸 64% of the designed runs (2nd-highest rate by a DEN RB this year)Denver’s RB1 📈📈📈#BroncosCountrypic.twitter.com/4St3U378wX
— FANTASY UMPIRE (@FantasyUmpire) November 11, 2024
Cam Akers and Ty Chandler are in play if Aaron Jones sits this week. Last week, Akers played 29 percent of the snaps with 13 carries and one target, going for 47 yards. Chandler played 15 percent of the snaps with four carries and no targets. It is always different when an injury happens in a game, rather than when a team can game plan, but that usage makes Akers the preferred pivot here against the Titans, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy PPG to RBs in the last month.
Gus Edwards returned last week, played a quarter of the snaps, and finished with 10 carries. Both he and J.K. Dobbins finished with 55 yards. Edwards has a role in this offense, and he is always a threat to score a touchdown. That is enough to have him in play as a pivot option in an RB position that has not provided a ton of them.
If you need a WR…
Jauan Jennings led the 49ers receivers in snaps (90 percent), targets (11), catches (seven), and receiving yards (93). He has gone off in the two games he played without one of Deebo Samuel Sr. or Brandon Aiyuk. Jennings is a strong start.
He was outscored fantasy-wise last week by teammate Ricky Pearsall, who found paydirt. Pearsall is the clear-cut No. 3 WR for San Fran and had six targets last week. The floor may be low, but he brings upside. Both are in play this week against Seattle, which is in the top 10 in yards allowed to WRs since Week 6.
Cedric Tillman is a must-start option who is simply getting overlooked. In three games without Amari Cooper, he has averaged 85 yards and 22.2 fantasy PPG, with at least 18 in every game. During those three weeks, he ranked third in targets and yards, second in air yards, and tied for second in touchdowns. Play him.
Teammates Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore are also in play as pivot options. Jeudy has 19 targets in his last two games combined and topped 70 yards and double-digit fantasy points in each. Moore has 21 targets in his last two games, and one of those went for over 16 fantasy points. They get the Saints, who have allowed the third-most yards to receivers on the season and since Week 6. They are great pivot options.
Quentin Johnston just keeps scoring touchdowns. Yes, the haters will say it's bad defense, but the fantasy managers will take the points. Johnston is consistently second in routes and targets on the Chargers. This also has the potential to be the first shootout the Chargers play in this season. Also, the haters will point out that his play came against bad defenses, but ignore that his two down games came against the Chiefs and Broncos. Seems disingenuous.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling exploded last week, catching all three of his targets for 109 yards and two touchdowns. The only other Saint with a deep target was Alvin Kamara. MVS is the new Rashid Shaheed of this Saints offense. The floor is very low, but the ceiling is very high. It comes down to if he can connect on a deep pass that week. He gets the Browns this week, who have allowed the fourth-most yards on deep passes.
Derek Carr to MVS for the Saints TD 🙌
📺: #ATLvsNO on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/UFiDPH16J7— NFL (@NFL) November 10, 2024
Mike Williams had just one target last week but you saw the potential he brings as the WR2 in the Steelers offense. He may still be getting up to speed on his new team, which means he brings a low floor, but there is an upside to be had against the Ravens. Baltimore has allowed the most yards and touchdowns to receivers, both on the season and since Week 6. It has allowed the most fantasy PPG to WRs. Williams also has a fantastic schedule moving forward, so add him even if you do not need to start him this week.
Alec Pierce has been the leading receiver more often than not this season with Anthony Richardson. We know the floor is low, but with Michael Pittman Jr. sidelined, he should see more opportunities. The floor is low, but Pierce can go off for 20 fantasy points at any time. The ultimate upside shot if you need one.
If you need a TE…
Hunter Henry is averaging 11 fantasy PPG in five games with Drake Maye this season. He has seen consistent volume and is a top weapon for the talented rookie QB. This could be a nice bounce-back week, as the Rams have struggled at times against tight ends, allowing the ninth-most fantasy PPG.
Mike Gesicki is in play if, and only if, Tee Higgins sits. Gesicki has played five games with and five without Higgins, and the splits are jarring. He has averaged 1.8 targets and 3.02 fantasy PPG with Higgins, compared to 7.2 targets and 13.8 fantasy PPG without him. Do I need to explain further? If Higgins is out, Gesicki is in.
Dawson Knox is in play if, and only if, Dalton Kincaid is out this week. Knox is a player Josh Allen trusts, especially in the red zone. Plus, it is a fantastic matchup, as the Chiefs have allowed the most yards and second-most fantasy PPG to tight ends this season. I am gearing up to stream him in several leagues this week.
Dawson Knox hauls in a great high corner throw from Josh Allen pic.twitter.com/j3Phj1f1TZ
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) November 11, 2024
Will Dissly had the third-highest first-read share in Week 10. No, not on the Chargers, in the entire NFL. It blew my mind to see that. Dissly now has six or more targets in three of his last four games. He gets the Bengals this week, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy PPG to TEs, in what could be a high-scoring game.
Make sure to follow Michael on X, @MichaelFFlorio.
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