Sophomore Slump: Second-Year Players That Will Decline

September 10, 2020

Rishi Patel looks at second-year NFL players who may decline in 2020 for fantasy football value after strong rookie seasons, including RB David Montgomery, Miles Sanders, Benny Snell and WR Darius Slayton.

For some NFL players, the rookie year is for adjustment and getting acclimated to the NFL system. Many rookies thus don’t perform that well in fantasy because their roles are still being carved or they are simply too small.

Nevertheless, there are some rookies who outperform their expectations by having a huge role in their first season and emerging as a fantasy sleeper. A notable example of this in recent memory is Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott with the Cowboys in 2016 where both led the team to an incredible 13-3 record in their first year.

The realities of second-year players can be quite brutal when teams have tape on them, so a sophomore slump could be realistic. Here are a few 2019 draft picks who could endure a sophomore slump this season:

David Montgomery, Chicago Bears

Montgomery endured a groin injury in late August and he was slated to miss quite a few weeks. However, the back is practicing in a limited capacity as of this writing and could hopefully start in Week 1.

Montgomery proved to be valuable in the ground game last season for Chicago despite the team not fully using their backs efficiently. The Iowa State product compiled 242 rushes, 889 rush yards, six rush touchdowns, 3.7 yards per rush, 55.6 rush yards per game, 25 receptions, 35 targets, 185 receiving yards, and one receiving touchdown in 16 games. He also posted 28 broken tackles. The 23-year-old finished 22^nd among fantasy backs despite ranking around average when it came to the opportunities provided to him.

In 2020, it will certainly be tough for Montgomery to follow up on this considering Mitchell Trubisky is still the QB and the RB is dealing with an injury heading into the season, which could potentially lead to setbacks. Coach Matt Nagy is focused on getting the ground game going, but if the Bears fall behind in contests, they may be forced to ditch the ground game and therefore Montgomery. The shaky QB situation certainly doesn’t help the back in the passing game. Overall, any lackluster usage and dealing with an injury could mean bad news for David Montgomery’s fantasy value this season.

Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles

Like David Montgomery, Miles Sanders is coming off a respectable campaign his rookie year. Nevertheless, this back is also dealing with an injury, particularly to his hamstring, and it has caused him to miss most of training camp. Eagles head coach Doug Pederson claimed Sanders may have to play in a limited fashion at the beginning of the season, thus giving his fantasy value a hit.

Last season, the Penn State product managed 179 rushes, 818 rush yards, three rush touchdowns, 4.6 yards per rush, 51.1 rush yards per game, 63 targets, 50 receptions, 509 receiving yards, and three receiving touchdowns in 16 games. He also had 2.1 rush yards after contact per rush. Sanders finished an impressive 15^th among fantasy running backs as a rookie last season.

The sophomore’s injury concern, along with the presence of a capable backup in Boston Scott, means he could see less playing time at the beginning of the season than anticipated. This is a blow to his fantasy value. If he’s not at 100 percent, Sanders may not provide the best fantasy value during the first weeks of the season. This could set the tone for a sophomore slump if he doesn’t get into a groove as the season progresses.

Benny Snell Jr., Pittsburgh Steelers

With James Conner dealing with injuries last season, guys like Benny Snell Jr. stepped in to handle the rushing workload on the Steelers. In 13 games, the rookie accumulated 108 rushes, 426 rush yards, two rush touchdowns, 3.9 rush yards per attempt, 32.8 rush yards per game, four targets, three receptions, and 23 receiving yards. This was respectable for a rookie who was not supposed to take on this big of a role.

Nevertheless, Conner is back this season and looking to take on a workhorse role in 2020. Assuming he stays healthy, Snell will take a backseat and fight with Anthony McFarland Jr. and Jaylen Samuels for carries behind Conner. This means Snell could see less playing time and not replicate his rookie numbers depending on how the carries are split among the three backup backs.

Darius Slayton, New York Giants

In QB Daniel Jones’ first NFL season (and Eli Manning’s final NFL season), it was surprisingly rookie WR Darius Slayton who emerged as the top receiving option. In 14 games, the youngster recorded 48 receptions on 84 targets for 740 yards and eight touchdowns. He also averaged 15.4 yards per catch and 52.9 yards per game. This is because receivers Sterling Shepard and Golden Tate were limited to 10 and 11 games, respectively.

Therefore, Slayton paced the team in yards and touchdowns. He finished 33^rd among fantasy receivers. Heading into 2020, Shepard and Tate will both look to play big roles for the Giants in QB Daniel Jones’ second season, meaning Slayton heads down to second or third on the WRs depth chart. He will now have to fight with Shepard, Tate, and TE Evan Engram for targets once again and if all three of those guys stay healthy, Slayton could see less production.

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