X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Running Back Stat Sleepers - Missed Tackles Forced

Antonio Losada dives into RB broken tackles data to find the running back position's best draft sleepers for 2021 fantasy football leagues.

Plunging into the world of football analytics is without question a great way to find fantasy sleepers for the coming season. Especially in the case of running backs, considering overall elusiveness is arguably the best way to determine how good (or bad) a player's performance was. And that's what this is all about.

I will be looking at advanced rushing data from Pro-Football-Reference.com, and on top of that, crossing those numbers with 2021 ADP values from fantasy drafts up to this date in order to find the best sleepers poised to have big seasons this year given their 2020 numbers. All of it will be focused on how many missed tackles these players forced, how often they broke tackles relative to volume, and their tendency to accumulate yardage after contact.

The average draft position definitely plays a role here, considering many of these players can be had at a mid-to-late-round bargain price. Let's get to it!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

2021 Missed Tackles Forced Sleepers

 

Damien Harris, New England Patriots

This list of players is ordered alphabetically and I'm glad Damien Harris comes in first. That way, we can deal with the Patriots' never-ending three-headed monster of a backfield that, you're right, New England will most probably feature for another season--and that is without taking rushing-QB Cam Newton's presence on that same field... anyway. When it comes to missed tackles, few players did it to Harris' levels in 2020. The counting stats aren't gaudy (just 12 BrkTkl on the year) but when put in context, it looks much better.

Harris was one of only 29 rushers to break a tackle on fewer than a 12-rushing-attempt basis. Not that great, right? Well, now consider that only 12 of those players have better averages than Harris while still having an ADP cheaper than Harris' 107 (at the time of this writing). Things look much better from that angle. And it gets even tastier if we keep adding data to the analysis: Harris is one of three players with 200+ snaps, <12 ruAtt/BrkTkl, and a 100+ ADP.

New England will, once more, run (no pun intended) with all of Harris, Sony Michel, and James White, sure, but Harris has the best numbers when it comes to dodging defensive bullets while bulldozing his way through tackles. He racked up the most Yards Before Contact (429) and second-most Yards After Contact (262) among players with <250 snaps played in 2020 and added a couple of scores to his line.

 

James Conner, Arizona Cardinals

Although James Conner only played 13 games in 2020, starting 11 of them, he was still able to stay on the field for the 15th-most snaps (522) among all rushers. The efficiency definitely wasn't mindblowing with 0.32 FP/snap (15th-highest among RBs with 500+ snaps) but the volume was so high that Conner easily made up for his lack of overall efficiency.

The volume might go a little bit down in Arizona, as he profiles as the no. 2 back behind RB1 Chase Edmonds. Whether that ends being true or not, we'll have to wait and see, but Conner's numbers on the YAC and BrkTkl cats were absolutely insane. Conner amassed 721 total rushing yards on the year with a 1.15 YBC:YAC ratio. He broke 17 tackles in his 169 rushing attempts. Those 17 BrkTkl "only" ranked 11th among all rushers, but when looking at the ruAtt/BrkTkl, the mark sits at 9.9, the seventh-best mark among rushers with 150+ rushing attempts in 2020.

The most incredible thing about Conner as I'm typing this is his ultra-low 122+ ADP. Sure, he will be facing competition that just wasn't there in Pittsburgh, but even then, finding Conner available past the 10th round in 12-team leagues is still a little surprising considering his abilities.

 

Mike Davis, Atlanta Falcons

Mike Davis is rising through the ADP leaderboards by the day and becoming one of the most coveted fantasy assets during the early fantasy draft season. A 100-ADP player by the start of April, the fact that Atlanta opted to pass on bolstering its backfield other than adding veteran Cordarrelle Patterson has fantasy GMs salivating out there with the possibilities of seeing a full season of Mike Davis putting on Carolina numbers. And oh boy were those good backing up CMC in 2020.

Davis logged 15 games played last season, though realistically he was the RB1 of the Panthers in the 12 games CMC missed entirely. All games considered, though, Davis played 557 snaps and piled 165 rushing attempts in which he gained 642 yards with six scores while racking up 373 extra yards catching 59 passes for two more touchdowns. Not bad for a backup, am I right? Well, it is not only that those numbers aren't bad, it is that they are even better if you look under the rug.

Even removing any snap or rushing-attempt threshold, Mike Davis ranked 17th in YBC/YAC ratio at 0.61. That mark was the second-best among rushers with 100+ ruAtt in 2020 with Davis getting 244 yards before contact but a monster 398 after contact. In case you're wondering, Davis broke 21 (!!!) tackles (tied fourth-most) and one every 7.9 rushing attempts. Do you know how many players did it on a higher basis? None, with the second-best already at 8.5 ruAtt/BrkTkl.

 

Nyheim Hines, Indianapolis Colts

The Colts' backfield has changed between zero and nothing at all, with the biggest change being their bodies now a year older than they were in 2020. Not that it is great news, as Indy already featured three strong tailbacks in Hines, Jonathan Taylor, and Marlon Mack last year, but not that those are the worst news ever either as Hines found his little niche and took advantage of Mack's early season-ending injury to get his numbers up.

Hines closed 2020 with only 89 rushing attempts, but he got 380 yards on the ground for a 4.27 YPC while scoring three rushing touchdowns. Obviously, Taylor was the one taking the heavier ground-load while Hines did most of his damage through the passing game with 64 receptions for 482 yards and four more touchdowns. That overall production meant 0.52 FP/Snap for Hines, the seventh-highest mark among RBs with 350+ snaps on the year. Uh oh.

Focusing on the ground game, though, Hines was far from bad. As it happens with low-volume rushers, his total eight broken tackles look low until you realize he was getting them every 11.1 rushing attempts. That's tied for the 15th-best mark among 350+ snap players, sitting at the same spot as Derrick Henry's. Hines couldn't win a lot of YAC (1.8 per attempt) but he was fairly consistent at breaking tackles. Expectations talk about a three-man RBBC in Indy, but you saw what happened to Mack last season and how Hines will provide value on the passing game no matter how rushing touches are shared between the Colts' tailbacks.

 

Zack Moss, Buffalo Bills

Buffalo chose to stay (mostly) put when it comes to its backfield for the 2021 season. RB Devin Singletary landed in Bills Town back in 2019 and already out-touched Frank Gore 180 to 179. One year later, Zack Moss was added to the roster and finished with 126 touches to Singletary's 194. That will most probably remain on these same terms in 2021 with the lone addition of Matt Breida to a backfield that should have their two most-used players in Devin and Moss.

While Singletary (9.1 FPG) was slightly better than Moss (7.3) overall, it was the latter who made the most of his--fewer--chances and turned out to be the most efficient tailback of the two. On both fewer targets and rushing attempts, Moss posted higher marks on FP per snap and per opportunity than Singletary. He broke 13 tackles to Devin's eight, and he finished with the fifth-lowest number of attempts per BrkTkl among rushers with at least 300 snaps played through the season.

For the insanely high volume of Singletary, his nine broken tackles were rather low for an average of 17+ rushing attempts between broken tackles, one of the lowest marks among that same group of rushers. Moss outscored Singletary four to two in rushing touchdowns and added one receiving to Singletary's zero in that department. It makes sense to find Moss with an ADP 50+ spots above Singletary's, but even then, everything points toward Zack Moss turning into a late-round steal given the efficient underlying numbers he posted last season.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Lamar Jackson

Dealing With Minor Foot Injury
Lamar Jackson

Suffers Apparent Hand Injury
Félix Bautista

Felix Bautista has Surgery on Torn Rotator Cuff
Hideki Matsuyama

Looks to Bounce Back at Tour Championship
Corey Conners

Looking to Reverse Struggles at East Lake
Joe Mixon

Could Begin Season on PUP List
Cameron Young

Stays Hot Ahead of Tour Championship
Harris English

Aims for Complete Game at East Lake
Sepp Straka

Back in Action at East Lake
Ben Griffin

a Strong Value Play at East Lake
Bubba Chandler

to Join Pirates on Friday
Rory McIlroy

Chasing Another Win at East Lake
Patrick Cantlay

Finishes Tied for 30th at BMW Championship
Ludvig Aberg

Finishes Tied For Seventh at BMW Championship
Collin Morikawa

Finishes Tied for 33rd at BMW Championship
Keegan Bradley

Finishes Tied for 17th at BMW Championship
Robert MacIntyre

Finishes Second at BMW Championship
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Tied for 23rd at BMW Championship
Scottie Scheffler

Wins BMW Championship
Brian Robinson Jr.

Not Expected to Play for Commanders This Year
Kenley Jansen

Considered Day-to-Day With a "Physical" Injury
Rashee Rice

Could be Facing 4-6 Game Suspension?
Harry Hall

Hot at the Right Time for Tour Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound at Tour Championship
Jacob Bridgeman

has One Weakness Heading to Atlanta
Nikola Vučević

Nikola Vucevic Not Expecting to Be Moved Before the Season
Nick Taylor

a Long Shot to Win Tour Championship
Josh Giddey

Bulls Not Interested in Sign-and-Trade Deal Involving Josh Giddey
Brian Harman

Trying to Crack Top 20 at Tour Championship
Andrew Novak

Attempts to Bounce Back in Atlanta
Oscar Tshiebwe

Signs New Two-Way Deal With Jazz
Justin Rose

Seeks Even More Success at Tour Championship
Washington Wizards

Alondes Williams Joins Wizards for Training Camp
Washington Wizards

Wizards Add Skal Labissiere for Training Camp
Francisco Alvarez

Needs Thumb Surgery, May Play Through Injury
Willy Adames

Out With Side Soreness on Tuesday
A.J. Brown

on Track to Play in Week 1
Jacob deGrom

Being Skipped in Rotation Due to Shoulder Fatigue
Adley Rutschman

Scratched on Tuesday With Abdominal Discomfort
CBJ

Brendan Smith Joins Blue Jackets on Tryout Deal
STL

Milan Lucic Joins Blues for Tryout
DET

Red Wings Pick Up Travis Hamonic
Austin Riley

Doesn't Appear Ready to Return Any Time Soon
Aaron Judge

Unikely to Throw Normally Again This Year
Jalen McMillan

Could be Out Through Week 9 Bye
Indiana Pacers

Pacers Coach Rick Carlisle Agrees to a Multiyear Contract Extension on Tuesday
Washington Wizards

John Wall Retires After 11 NBA Seasons
Daniel Jones

Named as Colts Starting Quarterback
Jalen McMillan

Will Not Be Ready for Season Opener
Collin Sexton

Hornets Have High Hopes for Collin Sexton
Rui Hachimura

Likely to Start Season Without Contract Extension
Jaime Jaquez Jr.

Hopes to Bounce Back in 2025-26
Stephen Curry

Ready to Go for New Season
Orlando Magic

Lester Quinones Agrees to Deal With Magic
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Cleared to Play on Tuesday Night
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Pulled With Hamstring Tightness
MLB

Game 2 of Brewers-Cubs on Monday Postponed
Bryce Miller

to be Activated on Tuesday
Kyle Tucker

to Get Multiple Days Off
Shane Bieber

to Make Season Debut on Friday
Joe Mixon

Could Start Season on NFI List
Zack Wheeler

has Surgery to Remove Blood Clot
De'Von Achane

Unlikely to Practice This Week
Justin Jefferson

Returning to Practice
Chris Godwin

Bucs Chris Godwin Likely to Start Season on PUP List
Joe Flacco

Browns Name Joe Flacco as Their Week 1 Starter
Jalen McDaniels

Inks Deal With New Orleans
N'Faly Dante

Signs Deal With Hawks
Matthew Stafford

Practicing on Monday
Dru Smith

Agrees to Deal With Heat
Austin Dillon

Scores an Upset Victory at Richmond
William Byron

Clinches the Regular Season Championship Title at Richmond
Denny Hamlin

Pit-Road Struggles Impede Denny Hamlin's Chances of a Top Finish at Richmond
Joey Logano

Earns A Fourth-Place Finish at Richmond
Kyle Larson

Rallies to A Top-10 Finish at Richmond
Malik Nabers

Dealing With Back Injury
Khamzat Chimaev

Is The New UFC Middleweight Champion
Dricus Du Plessis

Gets Dominated At UFC 319
Aaron Pico

Suffers Knockout Loss In His UFC Debut
Lerone Murphy

Scores Stunning First-Round Knockout
Leodalis De Vries

Earns Promotion to Double-A
Nathaniel Lowe

Finalizing Deal with Boston
Geoff Neal

Suffers First-Round Knockout Loss
Ketel Marte

Arizona Could Trade Ketel Marte in the Offseason
Carlos Prates

Gets Back In The Win Column
Michael Page

Dominates At UFC 319
Jared Cannonier

Gets Outclassed
Tim Elliott

Gets Submission Win
Kai Asakura

Still Winless In The UFC
Austin Cindric

has Arguably his Best Run of the Season at Richmond
Ryan Blaney

Contends for First Richmond Win but Comes Up Short
Alex Bowman

Finishes Second but Loses Ground in Playoffs
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Sets Personal Laps-Led Record at Richmond
Chris Buescher

Falls Out of Playoffs After Miserable Richmond Run
Coby White

Bulls Not Interested in Trading Coby White
Dereck Lively II

Expected to be Ready for Camp
Brian Robinson Jr.

Commanders "Shopping" Brian Robinson Jr.
John Metchie III

Texans Trade John Metchie III to Eagles
Victor Scott II

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Trey Hendrickson

Bengals Listening to Trade Offers for Trey Hendrickson
Marcelo Mayer

to Have Season-Ending Wrist Surgery
Samuel Basallo

Called Up From Triple-A Norfolk
J.K. Dobbins

Expected to Win Starting RB Job?
Quentin Johnston

Suffers Concussion in Preseason Loss
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Likely Avoids Serious Injury
Denny Hamlin

the Heavy Favorite to Win at Richmond
Christopher Bell

Has Been Great at Richmond
Tyrese Haliburton

No Longer Using a Scooter, Crutches
Ryan Blaney

Can Ryan Blaney Finally Break Through at Richmond?
Joey Logano

Will Start Last at Richmond After Practice Trouble
Chase Elliott

Lack of Top-Line Speed Hurts his DFS Potential
Kyle Larson

Recent String of Crashes Make Him a Big Risk at Richmond
William Byron

Probably Slightly Too Inconsistent at Richmond to Start for DFS
Ryan Preece

on Pole at Richmond as Playoff Deadline Looms Closer
Brad Keselowski

Probably the Best RFK Racing DFS Option at Richmond
Chase Briscoe

Still Figuring Out Richmond
Chris Buescher

a Solid Choice for DFS Play, but Teammates Look Faster
Haywood Highsmith

Dealt to Brooklyn on Friday
Khamzat Chimaev

A Favorite At UFC 319
Dricus Du Plessis

Set For His Third Title Defense
Aaron Pico

Set For UFC Debut
Lerone Murphy

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Geoff Neal

Looks For His Second Win In A Row
Michael Page

Set For His Second Middleweight Bout
Jared Cannonier

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kai Asakura

Looks For His First UFC Win
Tim Elliott

Set To Open Up UFC 309 Main Card
CBJ

Mikael Pyyhtia Re-Signs With Blue Jackets for One Year
UTA

Caleb Desnoyers Expected to Miss 12 Weeks After Wrist Procedure
Tyson Foerster

on Track to Be Healthy for Season Opener
NHL

Olivier Rodrigue Signs KHL Deal
NHL

Emil Bemstrom to Join Swiss Team

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP