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Defenses matter a lot in fantasy football. If you can draft and matchup the right players against sub-par defenses, you have a recipe for success. It’s not as easy as just looking at the best and worst defenses from 2014 though, and that’s why we’re here to help.
In this eight article series, we’re going to take a look at all the defenses in the NFL. We’ll look at whether or not teams have improved for 2015, and dive into the passing and rushing defensive potential of every NFL team, one division at a time.
Today we are taking a look at the NFC North passing and rushing defenses, and their outlook for the 2015 fantasy football season. When this series is over, you will have a great grasp of which defenses to target for plus matchups.
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NFC North Passing Defenses Rankings
Stats listed are: 1) 2014 Pass Defense Ranking per DVOA, 2) Fantasy Points against QBs, 3) Fantasy Points against WRs, per ESPN
Detroit Lions
2014 Rankings: 8, 7, 10
Coming in 7th and 10th against QB and WR respectively in 2014 made the Lions the best in their division against both of the positions. Their secondary also finished top-10 in terms of passing DVOA, opponent Y/A, and interceptions. That's not bad for a team known for stopping the run.
2015 Projected Pass Defense Ranking: Top 10
The Lions gave up the fifth fewest Y/A against the pass in 2014, yet came in 13th in terms of total yards allowed. That difference stems from the fact that only four teams were thrown on more than Detroit last season, and eventually boils down to opposing offenses being utterly unable to run the football. A weaker run defense could actually benefit an already strong Lions secondary, however, with fewer teams electing to attack through the air. Expect similar production from Detroit in 2015.
Minnesota Vikings:
2014 Rankings: 19, 11, 11
The Vikings, relying on a strong core of young players in their secondary, finished in the top half of teams in terms of opponent Y/A over the air last season and were the 11th best defense against both the QB and WR in 2014. Their mediocre DVOA against the pass put them 19th in the league, though.
2015 Projected Pass Defense Ranking: Top 10
Rookie Trae Waynes has struggled thus far in the pre-season, but with Harrison Smith and Xavier Rhodes on the outside and Everson Griffen on the inside, the Vikings pass defense looks to be much improved this season. It’ll need to be, too, with Calvin Johnson, Jordy Nelson, and Alshon Jeffery comprising a third of the team’s schedule. That alone should temper expectations, but of all the teams in the NFC North Minnesota seems likeliest to improve dramatically this season. Any improvement at all would put them right up there with Lions in the top-10.
Green Bay Packers:
2014 Rankings: 16, 12, 23
It was a perfectly average season for the Packers' secondary in 2014. The group finished in the middle of the league in terms of passing DVOA, doing slightly better against the QB and worse against the WR. They were much more a defense to target than a defense to fear, although they did finish top-10 in terms of opponent Y/A through the air.
2015 Projected Pass Defense Ranking: Middle of the Pack
Despite the funny names, there shouldn't be too much that's funny about the Packers’ secondary in 2015. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Morgan Burnett comprise one of the better safety duos in all of football, and with Julius Peppers as a threat on the edge the team could be just as strong as a pass defense in 2015 as it was a season ago. That puts them right in the mix to finish near the middle of the league, possibly higher.
Chicago Bears
2014 Rankings: 29, 31, 24
Chicago’s 2014 defensive statistics against the pass are a testament to just how bad a bad secondary can be in the NFC North. The Bears gave up more than 4200 yards via the air last season despite being passed on less than most of the league, and finished second-worst in the league in both Y/A and TDs allowed.
2015 Projected Pass Defense Ranking: Bottom Ten
There should be improvement in Chicago this season, just not enough. The team has taken steps toward rebuilding, but will still have a rebuilding secondary and should continue to struggle against the pass. The only reason not to target the Bears for the QB and WR positions would be poor weather conditions at Soldier Field late in the year.
NFC North Rushing Defense Rankings
Per DVOA and Fantasy Points Against Running Backs, per ESPN
Detroit Lions
2014 Rankings: 1, 3
The Lions defensive line stole the show in 2014. Detroit boasted the best run defense in the league, giving up only 3.2 Y/A, a mark .2 yards better than Seattle and nearly a yard better than Buffalo. Their DVOA against the run was also tops in the league, while they gave up the third fewest points to the RB position.
2015 Projected Run Defense Ranking: Top Half
Despite being the best in the league just a season ago, the Lions may not find themselves the best run defense in their own division when 2015 comes to a close. For a reason why, look no further than Ndamukung Suh. Arguably one of the best defensive players in the game, Suh left the Lions for the Dolphins in free agency, and although Detroit picked up Haloti Ngata to fill the void, Suh’s absence will still be sorely felt. Expect decline from the Lions this coming season.
Minnesota Vikings
2014 Rankings: 25, 26
An improved Minnesota defense last season was still in the bottom third of the league when it came to stopping the run. The young Vikings gave up more than 18 points a week to the RB position in 2014, and spent the majority of the year targeted by fantasy players looking for a juicy RB match-up.
2015 Projected Run Defense Ranking: Top Half
Hovering near the middle of the pack isn’t where Mike Zimmer wants his defense to be, and a wealth of young talent in Eric Kendricks, Anthony Barr, and Everson Griffen could help with that. If those three key players and several others can take another step forward in 2015, the Vikings have to the potential to be a brutal run defense. They haven’t quite put it together, though, as apparent by their 4.3 Y/A last season, but another year of growth and another year under Zimmer gives this team more potential than any in the NFC North.
Green Bay Packers
2014 Rankings: 24, 16
A rough run defense made the Packers one of the most statistically mediocre defenses in the league last season. Despite only giving up the 16th most points to the RB position, Green Bay was well in the bottom third of teams in terms of DVOA against the run.
2015 Projected Run Defense Ranking: Bottom Half
A once feared linebacker core in Green Bay has since begun to struggle, and the Packers’ 116 first downs given up via the run last season is a sign of that. There is potential, however, with Julius Peppers reemerging last season and a great duo of hard hitting safeties in the secondary, but another year of decline could put the Packers, once again, into the bottom half of teams against the run. In fact, Green Bay’s best weapon against the run in 2015 may prove to be Aaron Rodger’s arm.
Chicago Bears
2014 Rankings: 21, 21
The Bears weren't quite as awful against the run last season as they were against the pass, but still ended in the bottom third of the league. They did, however, only give up 78 first downs via the run, a relatively strong mark.
2015 Projected Run Defense Ranking: Bottom Half
In the wake of two tumultuous seasons, one of which was historically bad, Chicago put some seeds in place this off-season. The team grabbed DC Vic Fangio from San Francisco where his 49ers defenses were routinely among the best in the league, and even added some young talent as well. That doesn’t change the fact that the Bears gave up points on a league high 44.6% of opponents’ drives last season, and won't turn a bad run defense great. Expect another sub-par defense from Chicago in 2015, and that goes for the run as well.
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