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Read our best NRFI betting picks today - Major League Baseball NRFI predictions for 4/25/2025. No Runs First Inning (NRFI) betting tips, expert MLB predictions, odds, and trends.
Introducing the latest edition to our MLB betting content at RotoBaller, I'm bringing you my best NRFI bets and bonus bets for today's games.
If you love a good, quick sweat, then NRFI bets might be for you. I'll target some of the better pitching matchups and least productive offenses early in games when making my NRFI picks.
In this article, I'll provide my best NRFI bets today for the MLB games on Friday, April 25, 2025. Check the weather and projected lineups for each team before placing any bets. All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook or DraftKings Sportsbook.
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What Are MLB NRFI/YRFI Bets?
NRFI bets are wagers placed on whether or not an MLB team will score a run in the first inning. MLB NRFI stands for "No Run First Inning", while YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning."
These are popular bets because bettors only have to sweat out the first inning, rather than the entire game's outcome. The most common outcome for the first inning is a NRFI, so usually the odds will reflect that, with NRFIs carrying shorter odds and YRFIs carrying longer odds.
Even the best offenses in baseball are still only scoring a run in roughly 50% of their first innings. Every day, I'll weigh the Vegas odds against what I calculate to be the expected probability of an NRFI/YRFI in each MLB game and provide my top NRFI bets or YRFI bets for your consideration.
Best NRFI Bets Today (04/25/2025)
Here are the MLB games that I will be targeting with NRFI/YRFI bets tonight.
- Houston Astros at Kansas City Royals: 7:40 pm
- Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals: 8:15 pm
- Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers: 10:10 pm
- Texas Rangers at San Francisco Giants: 10:15 pm
Houston Astros at Kansas City Royals NRFI (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- HOU - Hayden Wesneski
- KC - Seth Lugo
Our first game to target tonight features two pitchers who have been solid in the first inning so far this season. The up-and-coming Wesneski has a 75% NRFI rate through his first four starts, while the veteran Lugo sports a perfect 100% NRFI rate, pitching a shutout in the first inning of all five of his starts.
Hayden Wesneski, Dirty 86mph Sweeper...and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/hkqbVD23NO
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 20, 2025
Wesneski is having the better season overall, but Lugo has been extremely effective early, allowing a tiny 0.60 WHIP with just three baserunners across five innings.
As far as the offenses go, the Astros rank first in NRFI rate at 83 percent this season, scoring a run in only four of their first 24 games. The Royals are in the middle of the pack with a 69 percent NRFI rate, but have yet to hit a first-inning home run this year. Homers are the one concern when it comes to Wesneski, but the Royals' lack of early power puts me at ease, and I think we see both teams put up an early goose egg in this one.
Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals NRFI (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- MIL - Chad Patrick
- STL - Matthew Liberatore
This bet has more to do with the two inept early offenses than it does with the pitchers, who are both young and have a minimal track record of success. The Brewers and Cardinals rank second and third, respectively, in offensive NRFI rate at 81 and 80 percent. Both teams have scored in just five first innings this season.
But we have to evaluate the pitchers and their overall success, as well as their first-inning success, too. Liberatore is having the best start to any season in his career with a strong 3.60 ERA that's backed by a 2.98 SIERA and 24.5 K percentage. Liberatore has allowed just two baserunners in the first inning across his first four starts, compiling a 3-1 NRFI record.
Chad Patrick has been pretty good, too, pitching to a 2.11 ERA across his first four starts while going 4-0 on NRFIs. His walk rate concerns me a bit, but not enough to take me off this bet, especially with the Cardinals scoring in the first inning just once in their last 10 games!
Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers NRFI (-145 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- PIT- Paul Skenes
- LAD - Yoshinobu Yamamoto
This is the game that is the most obvious bet of the night, and you probably don't need me to tell you that Skenes and Yamamoto are two of the best pitchers in the National League (and all of Major League Baseball).
Both pitchers have been nearly flawless in the first inning this season, as they both have started a perfect 5-0 on NRFIs. Yamamoto has been dominant this season with a 2.02 SIERA and 35 percent K percentage, while Skenes has been excellent, too (2.64 SIERA, 25.2 percent K percentage).
Paul Skenes' four-seamer vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto's four-seamer 🔥
📺 Pirates vs. Dodgers - Friday at 10pm ET on MLB Network pic.twitter.com/0jYk58F7es
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) April 25, 2025
I'm not too worried about the Pirates scoring early. They have the fifth-highest offensive NRFI rating at 77 percent. It will likely come down to Skenes working a clean first against some excellent Dodgers hitters. But L.A. is sitting at just a 68 percent NRFI rate, which is right in the middle of the pack. The odds here are getting pretty short, but I think it's still a bargain as this line should probably be closer to the -160 to -180 range.
Texas Rangers at San Francisco Giants NRFI (-140 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- TEX - Nathan Eovaldi
- SFG - Justin Verlander
This pitching matchup might not be as exciting as the Skenes-Yamamoto showdown, but we have two veteran hurlers here who have been quietly very effective in the first inning this season.
Eovaldi is having the better overall season of the two. He has the fourth-best SIERA of any pitcher on the bump tonight at 2.55 and has been mowing down hitters with a strong 26.3 K percentage. He has an 80 percent NRFI rate through his first five starts, with his lone damage being done by Seattle two starts ago. He has a measly 0.60 WHIP and has allowed just a .176 AVG to opposing hitters in the first inning, while the Giants offense has a poor 73 percent offensive NRFI rating and has hit just .219 in the first frame.
When we look at Verlander, it's clear he's no longer the version of himself that we saw dominate MLB hitters for over a decade. However, he has been quite solid in the first inning with a 4-1 NRFI record (80 percent hit rate) through his first five starts and a 0.80 WHIP.
The Rangers, like the Giants, have scored in just seven first innings this season, giving them a 72 percent offensive NRFI rating. Their best hitter, Corey Seager, who usually hits in the top three of the lineup, is now on the IL, which certainly helps Verlander here, too. Texas has eight offensive NRFIs in their last ten games, hitting just .222 in the first inning across that most recent stretch.
The odds might seem short, but everything lines up here quite nicely for an NRFI tonight.
TOP NRFI Parlay (DraftKings Sportsbook)
TEX-SFG NRFI (-145) + LAD-PIT NRFI (-145) = Two-leg NRFI Parlay (+185)
I'm rolling with the last two matchups of the evening here, where I have the most confidence in the pitchers involved. Pairing them together gets to a very nice number at +185.
Thanks for reading, and best of luck if you choose to tail any of the bets posted. Remember to gamble responsibly and enjoy a fantastic Friday night of baseball! You can always hit me up on X @ThunderDanDFS if you want to talk MLB bets!
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