NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 9) - Targets and Avoids

November 5, 2023

The top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 9 of the 2023 NFL season. Betting expert Seth I. Finkelstein's weekly survivor league pool targets and avoids.

Seven yards passing. That is how many total yards the New York Giants threw for in their loss to the Jets. What's crazier, them throwing for seven yards or how they were one yard and then 24 seconds away from winning? Tyrod Taylor was hurt in the first half after throwing for eight yards on 4-for-7 passing. In came Tommy Devito, who was 2-for-7 for -1 yards. The Giants did not even let Devito throw the ball. So how in the world was he the backup to begin with? If the Giants knew he could not play the position, why not go out and sign anyone? The Giants would have been better off running the ball every down with Saquon Barkley as the quarterback.

In survivor leagues, barely anyone was eliminated. All the favorites took care of business. The Chiefs were a big favorite and they lost, but a lot of people already picked them. Some were knocked out because they forgot to enter a pick. Eight weeks into the season and people are still forgetting to submit a pick.

Week 9 is another difficult week. There are not many of the top-tier teams as big favorites because they're playing each other. And the touchdown favorites are teams you'd not normally expect. It was also just the trade deadline with one team shipping away their defensive line. That may lead to a surprising team to target this week.

 NFL Teams Favored by 6+ in Week 9

• Browns (-8) vs. Cardinals
• Saints (-7.5) vs. Bears

Teams on bye: Broncos, 49ers, Jaguars, Lions

Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 9

Saints (-7.5) vs. Bears

Tyson Bagent is not the answer the Bears were hoping for. In his two starts, he's completing about 70 percent of passes but his yards per attempt is at six. That means he's not throwing the ball downfield, instead opting for the easy throws the defense is giving him. It's not going to get easier for Bagent this week. The Saints' defense is top-five in opponent yards per pass attempt and top-10 in opponent yards per play.

The Bears defense has struggled. On the season, they're bottom-10 in opponent yards per play. The Saints' offense is fourth in yards per play in their last three. There are just too many weapons on the Saints from Alvin Kamara to Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, and even Taysom Hill. This line should be higher.

Saints 24 - Bears 10

Patriots (-3.5) vs. Commanders

NFL teams don't tank but what is happening in Washington after they traded Montez Sweat and Chase Young? That's 11.5 sacks between the two of them. Now, the starting defensive linemen have a combined nine sacks between the four of them. That will bode very well for Mac Jones, who can actually make throws when he's not under pressure. His best game of the season was two weeks ago against Buffalo where he was sacked only once.

Washington is off a great game against the Eagles, one they should have won. Sam Howell threw for 397 yards and four touchdowns, was sacked just once, and the Commanders won the turnover battle. The Patriots' defense has been playing a lot better recently, eighth in opponent yards per play in their last three games. Expect a very good defensive effort from Bill Belichick's team and a low-scoring New England win.

Patriots 20 - Commanders 13

Packers (-3) vs. Rams

Reports say Matthew Stafford is day-to-day but he sprained his UCL in his right thumb Sunday. If he doesn't play, the Rams have no shot. I've been a sucker for Green Bay and there's nothing I can say that's good about their offense. Their defense has been keeping them in lots of games. They're 12th in opponent yards per play.

Packers 17 - Rams 13

Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 9

Browns (-8) vs. Cardinals

This game was first an avoid, then I moved it to a target before moving it back to an avoid. I'm always very hesitant to back a team with a below-average quarterback (P.J. Walker), but he has looked very solid recently. He has limitations and has thrown an interception in each of the three games he's started, but they are 2-1 in his starts. And should even be 3-0 if they ran the ball on third down and not thrown, which led to an interception and then led to a Seattle touchdown.

Here's the bigger issue with this game. We have no clue who the Cardinals are starting. An ESPN headline Monday night said, "Cardinals bench Joshua Dobbs; Clayton Tune to start, per source." Then you read the article and head coach Jonathan Gannon said it could be Kyler Murray. The unnamed source says it will be Tune. Unnamed sources have been wrong before. So which is it? If Murray starts, this line should be Cleveland by three.

I'm also curious to see how the Browns play as this big a favorite, a game they are expected to win.

Browns 21 - Cardinals 20

Falcons (-4.5) vs. Vikings

It's really hard to back Atlanta in this spot as a 4.5-point favorite. We don't even know if Desmond Ridder or Taylor Heinicke will start. The Vikings will be starting rookie fifth-round pick from BYU, Jaren Hall. Everyone is counting out Minnesota after they lost Kirk Cousins, but could Hall be that much worse than Ridder or Heinicke? The Falcons have been averaging 17.3 points per game, the fifth-worst in the league. This game will be about defenses. Both are top-10 in opponent yards per play. Who will get that extra stop in what I expect to be a field goal game?

Vikings 23 - Falcons 20

Chargers (-3) at Jets

Does defense win games in today's NFL? We'll surely get to see a great battle between one of the best offenses, the Chargers, and best defenses, the Jets. If the Chargers can get to 21, they should win. Unless Zach Wilson can build off his two phenomenal plays at the end of regulation against the Giants. This game will be a good one on Monday night.

Chargers 24 - Jets 20

NFL Best Bets for Week 9

• Vikings (+4.5) at Falcons
• Patriots (-3.5) vs. Commanders
• Cardinals (+8) at Browns

2023 Season Running Totals

• Last week: 2-1
• 2023 season: 14-10
• 2022 season: 28-23-3
• 2021 season: 27-26-1
• 2020 season: 24-27
• 2019 season: 23-26-2

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