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Thanksgiving has all but arrived, which means the NFL schedule gets spread out with a plethora of satellite games. Three games on Thanksgiving, the first-ever game on Black Friday, and then the regular Sunday and Monday night slate. It's one of the best times of the year for football fans.
Each week of the NFL season, I’ll share my picks for each game, and rank the selections for those who play in a format that requires it. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least confident pick. The winner picks are italicized.
Some weeks you may see a subcategory of “Wait and See” because some platforms require all games to be selected before the kickoff of Thursday Night Football. Injury question marks for Sunday and Monday games may still be hanging. If that’s the case, I’ll leave those games off to the side and suggest where they should be placed if a player suits up or not. Without further ado, let’s jump into our locks of the week.
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Week 12 NFL Pick 'Em Pool Locks
The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The winner picks are italicized.
- 16 - Dallas vs. Washington (Thanksgiving)
- 15 - Detroit vs. Green Bay (Thanksgiving)
- 14 - Miami at New York Jets (Black Friday)
- 13 - Kansas City at Las Vegas
- 12 - San Francisco at Seattle (Thanksgiving)
- 11 - Baltimore at Los Angeles Chargers
- 10 - Minnesota vs. Chicago
All four of the NFL's holiday games find spots in the locks section this week. Dallas, Detroit, and Miami all found ways to win despite subpar performances in Week 11. Those three will have no issues disposing of inferior divisional opponents once again. They've also been nearly unbeatable at home this season.
San Francisco has to travel to Seattle for a primetime Thanksgiving tilt. It's always a tough place to play but they may get the benefit of facing backup quarterback Drew Lock. Geno Smith (elbow) is concerned about his availability in a short week.
Kansas City and Minnesota also both draw division rivals staring up at them in the standings. The Antonio Pierce/Aidan O'Connell storyline was fun while it lasted, but the Raiders are just an average football team. Justin Fields makes the Chicago Bears more formidable, but they still found a way to bungle what should have been a multi-score victory.
The wheels have officially fallen off the Chargers' wagon. Brandon Staley won't be the coach next season and he may not even make it all the way through 2023, especially when the team owner realizes how much better the Ravens are than them.
Semi-Confident Picks For Week 12 Pick 'Em Pools
9 - New York Giants vs. New England
Did Tommy Devito unlock the New York offense or was it a product of the lousy Washington secondary? Regardless, the undrafted rookie has scored five touchdowns in his first two starts, setting a franchise record.
DeVito, while efficient, also took nine sacks, putting the offense frequently behind the sticks. Their defense repeatedly gifted their offense short fields, registering six takeaways. Defense and a dependence on Saquon Barkley is a winning recipe. Unfortunately, the defense has been less than stellar for the majority of the season.
They'll get another chance to prove their merit when they host the New England Patriots. Regardless of whether Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe (or even the wild card Malik Cunningham) is under center, any defense, even a mediocre one like the Giants, will have opportunities to force turnovers. If that's the case, DeVito will only need to be a game manager to secure a New York victory.
8 - Philadelphia vs. Buffalo
The Eagles walked into Arrowhead in primetime and took down the defending champions. It wasn't the prettiest of efforts (and Marquez Valdes-Scantling should have sealed a Chiefs' victory) but a win like that is impressive regardless. Now, they'll have to turn around and host another AFC contender, the Buffalo Bills.
Whether it was because they were playing the Jets or not, the Bills did what they needed to do to get back on track after a few ugly losses in recent weeks. Still, Buffalo only has one road win this season (Week 3 against Washington) and a trip to Lincoln Financial is not the place to pick up that second W.
7 - Cleveland at Denver
The Browns have officially taken the 'Somehow They Keep Winning' mantle from the Pittsburgh Steelers. Rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson threw for 163 yards with no touchdowns and one interception, but the defense held Kenny Pickett to just 106 yards and the Steelers to 10 points. That cleared the way for DTR to lead his team to a game-winning field goal with seconds to spare.
Cleveland is 7-3 with their starting quarterback only playing half of the games. Myles Garrett's 13 sacks are leading the league's most dominant defense. Couple that with a strong running game and the Browns will stay competitive often.
The weakness of a surging Denver defense is in the running game. The offense is still signaling mediocrity, which plays right into the strengths of the Browns. A low-scoring affair will allow Cleveland to sneak away with another win.
6 - Arizona vs. Los Angeles Rams
The roster is still filled with holes, but Kyler Murray's return has Arizona competing. The defense gave Murray chances to win the game but they were just a few yards away on several occasions. At least now there are reasons to get excited to watch an Arizona football game.
The Rams, on the other hand, are on a downward trend, despite a home win over Seattle. The Seahawks played with a lead for the majority of the game, only fumbling it away when Geno Smith (elbow) left with an injury. He returned on the final drive to set up his kicker for a game-winning field goal attempt, which was subsequently missed. The Rams didn't so much win that game as much as Seattle lost it.
While running back Kyren Williams (ankle) is nearing his return, star wideouts Cooper Kupp (ankle) and Puka Nacua (shoulder) got banged up on Sunday. If the Rams' offense is fully healthy, Arizona could struggle to slow them down. If not, Murray at home will be enough to propel the Cardinals past a mediocre Los Angeles squad.
NFL Pick 'Em Toss-Ups Of Week 12
5 - New Orleans at Atlanta
As legendary coach John Madden always said “If you have two quarterbacks, you actually have none.” That's the defining aspect of the Atlanta Falcons' 2023 season. Following a brief experiment with Taylor Heinicke, coach Arthur Smith wants to see more of Desmond Ridder moving forward.
Neither of these teams is particularly strong in any facet of football, but one of them is going to win the NFC South. This matchup will go a long way in determining who that will be. Outside of a game against Detroit, the Saints don't face another team over .500 the rest of the way. The time to start making their move is now.
Check on the status of Derek Carr (concussion/shoulder) as we move closer to Sunday. Even if Jameis Winston gets the start, it's enough for the Saints to squeak out a win on the road.
4 - Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati
Losing a franchise quarterback for the season can be demoralizing. A constant lack of offensive production can be equally demoralizing.
The Steelers, for the tenth straight game this season, were outgained by their opponent. Their defense held the Browns to just 259 total yards and gave their offense every chance to win. But the Steelers only tallied 249 yards themselves en route to 10 points. Running back Najee Harris is reaching his boiling point.
"There's just a lot of stuff that just goes around that you guys don't see. I guess I'm trying to say it's just, I'm just at a point where I'm just tired of this s---." - Najee Harris
The most logical solution for Pittsburgh (outside of letting go of offensive coordinator Matt Canada) is to make a change at quarterback. But it's well known that Mitch Trubisky is not any better than second-year first-round pick Kenny Pickett. They are stuck for this year and the offense is going to remain in the mud.
There were already some major holes on the Cincinnati roster before the Joe Burrow injury that will keep him sidelined for the remainder of the season. Without their star, the Bengals' season is slipping away. I'm not saying that Pittsburgh's season is full of optimism, either. Watch for both of these teams to fade out of the playoff picture.
3 - Tennessee vs. Carolina
This will definitely be the most difficult game to watch on the Week 12 slate and could compete for the worst game of the entire season. While his stat line was efficient, Will Levis is showing why he was a second-round pick with questions about how he could lead a team. Now that there's tape on the young quarterback, the offense is being shuttered with ease.
Across the field, there's another struggling rookie quarterback. The Panthers netted just 77 yards in the passing game against Dallas. Bryce Young threw for 123 yards but was sacked seven times. In fact, the first overall pick hasn't topped 250 passing yards yet. While the Tennessee defense isn't spectacular, teams have only needed to be average on that side of the football to shut down the Carolina offense.
Because they're the home team, I'm taking Tennessee. But, you know, enjoy the outdoors. Spent some time with your family around the holidays. Take care of that chore that you've been putting off. You won't miss much in this game.
2 - Indianapolis vs. Tampa Bay
Following a 3-1 start, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have now lost five of their last six games and are close to punching their ticket to an early vacation. They've stayed competitive in most of their recent matchups, other than Sunday's loss to San Francisco. With Baker Mayfield and a dreadful pass defense, they can't get over the hump to win games anymore.
The Indianapolis Colts still have a lot to fight for this season. They're in the playoff picture with a 5-5 record and have a favorable schedule on the horizon. Fresh off of two wins (albeit against two of the five worst teams in football) and their bye week, morale and vibes are better in Indianapolis than in Tampa. The Colts are favored by 2.5 points at the time of writing this, so this game could still go either way. However, the home team with more to play for gets the nod.
1 - Houston vs. Jacksonville
Houston's rookie first-round quarterback C.J. Stroud is finally showing some weaknesses in what has been a surefire Rookie of the Year candidacy. For the second game in a row, Stroud turned the ball over three times. Against Arizona, the turnovers came in the form of interceptions that an experienced quarterback wouldn't throw.
At the tail end of the broadcast, after escaping with the victory, the commentators talked about how good teams find a way to win despite several errors. Houston is in that category now. They are a good team.
Jacksonville annihilated the Tennessee Titans at home, allowing Trevor Lawrence to have the best game of his season. Much like in Week 1, Calvin Ridley racked up 100 receiving yards and scored. The Jaguars looked like the preseason favorites to win the AFC South.
Speaking of, the winner of this game will be atop the standings in the division. If Houston is victorious, they'll also own the tiebreaker with two victories over Jacksonville. Don't expect another 37-17 blowout that the Texans delivered to the Jaguars in Week 3, but Houston has appeared to be the more complete team at this point in the season.
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