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Justin Carter breaks down Packers TE Robert Tonyan''s Week 4 performance and evaluates whether he is a fantasy football riser at TE going forward in the 2020 NFL season.
Finding a consistent NFL tight end for fantasy purposes isn't an easy thing to do.
But maybe there's hope that a new player is about to enter that tier: Green Bay Packers tight end Robert Tonyan.
In this week's edition of Tape Tells All, I'll be looking at Tonyan's three-touchdown Week 4 to see if his recent production can be sustained.
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Background Information
Robert Tonyan has now caught five touchdown passes this season. He leads the team in receiving touchdowns by a wide margin over Aaron Jones, Allen Lazard, and Davante Adams, who all have two.
In fact, his five touchdowns tie him for the NFL lead with Mike Evans. 25 percent of the way through the season, that's a notable thing.
Also notable is that quarterback Aaron Rodgers has always been a quarterback who led to inconsistent production for tight ends. You can attribute that to the fact that his best tight ends have been Jermichael Finley and past-prime Jimmy Graham, but Rodgers has always seemed to look for wide receivers in the passing game more than other positions.
But injuries can change things. The Packers are currently without Davante Adams and Allen Lazard, and while Adams is expected back as early as next game, Lazard is set to still miss some time, and the options behind Lazard are replacement-level guys at best. Which means that hey -- it's entirely possible that Tonyan is going to be a key going forward.
The Game Tape
So, let's see what Tonyan did on Monday night.
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On his first catch, Tonyan starts as one of two in-line tight ends on the right side of the formation. At the snap, he comes across the middle of the play, getting some separation from the linebacker covering him, then making the reception and turning upfield to gain some yards.
I'm impressed by Tonyan's ability to get that separation. I know, I know, workout metrics can be misleading, but look at this:
image from PlayerProfiler.com
Those are incredibly impressive numbers, especially when all taken together. And one play in, we're seeing that speed on tape.
Moving on to the next play for Tonyan:
Again, Tonyan's in-line here. He takes off streaking towards the end zone at the snap and once again is being covered by a linebacker and friends -- don't think linebackers should be covering Tonyan at this p0int! By the time this defense realizes Tonyan's heading directly for the end zone, it's too late for 54 to catch up to him, which leaves Atlanta hoping they can get a safety to slide over and meet Tonyan before he gets the touchdown. Spoiler: doesn't work, as they all collide inside the five and Tonyan falls into his first touchdown of the game.
Hey, it's basically that same crossing route that Tonyan ran on his first reception. And why not go back to it, as he's got the speed to exploit the slower defender. Aaron Rodgers places the ball well here, and Tonyan gets enough space to make the catch. Touchdown.
And then there was the other touchdown:
I...what...is...
Tonyan is working more as a slot guy than a tight end here, is running the streak, and just gets upturned like five yards down the field. Play over, right?
Nah. He just casually gets up and is like "let me finish this route," and with the player who was defending him going down, he's wide open to just finish the route and score the touchdown.
This is such a weird play that it taught he zilch about Tonyan except for the fact he plays hard, which is a really abstract quality that doesn't impact my analysis of him. But hey, overall, this was a very good game for him!
Fantasy Impact
So, what do we make of this?
Tonyan's workout metrics are incredibly encouraging, and that they've actually translated into real production so far is even more encouraging. His ability to create space on these crossing patterns sets him up as a strong short-yardage option for Aaron Rodgers, especially down in the red zone.
And his speed also means he can be used in the vertical passing attack. That first touchdown is a great example of how Tonyan can get going down the field and creates a huge mismatch for the Packers offense to take advantage of.
By now, I assume Tonyan is no longer sitting on the waiver wire in your leagues. If he is for some reason, definitely add him right now. Don't pass go, don't etc. etc. etc. Pick up Tonyan.
The real question is how to think of him now that he's on your team.
Obviously, you start Tonyan when he has a good matchup, or you start him if the tight end you drafted to be your starter is hurt.
But is he someone you can lock in as a weekly TE1?
The skills are there. The passing volume is there.
But the Packers have a Week 5 bye, which gives them time to get healthier, which means that we should expect Davante Adams to be on the field the next time the Packers play.
Still, while Tonyan's role will decrease as other options become available, his usage is trending up and he's played at least 60 percent of snaps in each game. It's hard to just dismiss him due to the return of Adams. I think he's a high-end TE2 moving forward, with the upside to be a consistent TE1 if the usage remains after the bye. Worst case for Tonyan is being a viable streaming play each week, and if that's the worst case for an Aaron Rodgers tight end, then you know he's a talented player.
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