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NFL DFS Value Plays: Wild Card Round Bargain Bin for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo

Elijah Mitchell - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Welcome to the Wild Card Round edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry that find themselves in favorable matchups and/or suddenly expanded roles.

Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content:

  • The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller-coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
  • Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
  • Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more site prices a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
  • This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
  • The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability very important criteria.

With those housekeeping items out of the way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on the Wild-Card Round slates!

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Quarterback DFS Value Plays              

Jimmy Garoppolo, SF at DAL | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,800, Yahoo: $22 

Garoppolo appeared to get through his Week 18 appearance against the Rams without any further thumb issues, and he logged full practices Thursday and Friday to enter the weekend without an injury designation. The veteran signal-caller threw for over 300 yards in each of the last two regular-season games, and although he also tossed a pair of picks in those contests, he was able to generate some strong fantasy scores across the board, especially relative to his salaries. The interceptions could certainly crop up a time or two against a Cowboys defense that led the league in picks, but this should be a back-and-forth tussle that Garoppolo engages with his array of explosive pass-catching weapons frequently. It's also worth noting that while Dallas comes in with a No. 2 ranking in Pass Defense DVOA, the 'Boys were also ranked No. 27 in Explosive Pass Play Rate allowed and No. 17 in yards per pass surrendered.

Ben Roethlisberger, PIT at KC | DK: $5,200, FD: $6,400, Yahoo: $22

For the second straight week, Roethlisberger and his teammates enter a game knowing it could well be the franchise legend's swan song. The stakes are arguably even higher this Sunday night than they were in Week 18 when Pittsburgh went into the contest against the Ravens with what seemed like a very slim chance of parlaying any win into a playoff appearance, but now that it's come to pass, Big Ben could well throw caution to the wind a bit in a game no one thinks his team has a chance of winning. Roethlisberger threw for only 159 yards with a touchdown and interception against the Chiefs in the Week 16 blowout loss, but he appears set to have JuJu Smith-Schuster (shoulder) back in action for the first time since Week 5 and could certainly put up more than enough pass attempts to deliver strong returns on his modest salaries against a KC squad

 

Running Back DFS Value Plays   

Devin Singletary, BUF vs. NE | DK: $5,700, FD: $6,900, Yahoo: $21

Singletary logged double-digit carries yet again in the season finale against the Jets, and he finished the campaign having gained at least 86 rushing yards in three of the last four games. Singletary was held in check for the most part by New England in the two regular-season encounters with the Pats, but he did score a rushing TD and added five receptions in the second contest. The Patriots did finish the season ranked No. 25 in rush yards per attempt allowed and gave up 127.5 rushing yards per road contest as well, furthering Singletary's prospects in a game where he should log 17-20 total touches, at minimum.

Elijah Mitchell, SF at DAL | DK: $5,500, FD: $7,400, Yahoo: $20

Mitchell has adapted extremely well to NFL competition any time he's been able to enjoy good health during his rookie season, and he'll come into Sunday's contest having racked up 204 rushing yards at 4.9 yards per carry over the last two games of the campaign. Mitchell enjoyed a decent pass-catching role as well during the regular season, posting a 19-137-1 line through the air in 11 games. Finally free of an injury designation going into the weekend after dealing with a lingering knee issue for the last several weeks, Mitchell carries very reasonable salaries against a Cowboys defense that allowed 120.3 rushing yards per game in the last three contests of the season, ranked No. 23 in yards per rush allowed for 2021 and checked in with a No. 25 slotting in Explosive Rush Plays surrendered.

ALSO CONSIDER: Darrel Williams, KC vs. PIT | DK: $5,500, FD: $6,600, Yahoo: $17 

 

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Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays   

DeVonta Smith, PHI at TB | DK: $5,500, FD: $6,200, Yahoo: $19

Smith was Jalen Hurts' most explosive and consistent target all season, so he should certainly see plenty of work in this elimination matchup against a Buccaneers team that funnels plenty of action toward the pass due to its elite run defense. Teams passed at an NFL-high 68.5 percent clip against Tampa Bay at Raymond James Stadium, and Smith could therefore see at least 7-9 targets in a game Philly figures to have to remain aggressive in. The Bucs allowed 239.3 passing yards per home game and the fourth-most receptions to wideouts overall (235), so Smith could well get to a very solid return on his reasonable salaries by sheer volume.

Brandon Aiyuk, SF at DAL | DK: $5,400, FD: $6,100, Yahoo: $18

Aiyuk is often overshadowed by position mate Deebo Samuel and even star tight end George Kittle, but the second-year receiver can be a game-breaker in his own right. Aiyuk demonstrated as much in Week 18 with a 107-yard effort against the Rams in the critical win, and he posted at least 85 receiving yards in five of the last 10 games of the season. Aiyuk recorded a 43-685-4 line during that stretch and could certainly be ticketed for a significant role versus the Cowboys, which, in addition to the vulnerabilities cited in Garoppolo's entry, also gave up the third-highest yards per completion per home game (12.0) and the seventh-most receiving yards (2,870) to receivers overall.

A.J. Green, ARI at LAR | DK: $4,900, FD: $5,600, Yahoo: $15

Green finished the regular season with a dud, posting just four receptions for 23 yards on nine targets. However, he did record between 64 and 102 yards in three of the previous four games. The high end of that range came at the expense of the Rams back in Week 14, and although Hopkins was available for that contest and therefore able to draw some defensive attention, Green also generated a 5-67-1 line in the first meeting between the teams and remains an intriguing play at his salary in a game the Cardinals will naturally be aggressive in. The Rams also surrendered an elevated 10.9 yards per completion over the last three games of the season, and they also allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to wideouts (2,950) on the campaign.

ALSO CONSIDER: Zay Jones, LVR at KC | DK: $4,200, FD: $5,300, Yahoo: $15

 

Tight End DFS Value Plays  

Dalton Schultz, DAL vs. SF | DK: $5,000, FD: $6,200, Yahoo: $18

Schultz put up a career-best 78-808-8 line across 17 games this regular season, drawing an impressive 104 targets along the way. The fourth-year pro is one of Dak Prescott's most trusted targets, and he'll naturally carry an expectation of having a solid degree of involvement in Sunday's do-or-die matchup after logging between eight and 10 targets in three of the past four games. San Francisco only carried a No. 16 ranking in Pass Defense DVOA this past season, and although the Niners conceded a relatively modest 65-582-6 line to tight ends on 90 targets, they also generated a No. 23 ranking in Explosive Pass Play Rate allowed.

Zach Ertz, ARI at LAR | DK: $4,700, FD: $5,800, Yahoo: $14

Ertz's presence has become even more valued in the absence of DeAndre Hopkins (knee), and he finished his first Cardinals regular-season tenure with an impressive 56-574-3 line on 81 targets in 11 games. The veteran drew between nine and 13 targets in the four games Hopkins missed at the end of the season, posting a 28-253 line along the way. Ertz also posted five receptions for 42 yards on seven targets in his one encounter with the Rams, and Los Angeles allowed a robust 90-878-4 line to tight ends this past season.

ALSO CONSIDER: Dallas Goedert, PHI at TB | DK: $4,500, FD: $5,900, Yahoo: $18



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