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Scott Cullen provides his NFL DFS prop picks for December 16th, 2019 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy football advice.
The New Orleans Saints host the Indianapolis Colts on Monday Night Football, a great opportunity to play props and win with Monkey Knife Fight.
The Saints are 10-3, coming off a 48-46 loss to San Francisco last week, and they remain one of the most dangerous teams in the league. Having Michael Thomas at wide receiver obviously helps and they round out the passing game with tight end Jared Cook, wide receiver Ted Ginn Jr., and running back Alvin Kamara. While Kamara has not been nearly as productive as hoped, he combines with Latavius Murray to still form a competent backfield.
After a solid start to the season, the Colts have lost five of six, but that hasn’t come arbitrarily. Injuries have decimated the team, particularly at skill positions, as running back Marlon Mack and wide receiver T.Y. Hilton have both missed time. Mack is back but Hilton is questionable for Monday night. That leaves quarterback Jacoby Brissett throwing to wide receiver Zach Pascal and tight end Jack Doyle and a mish-mash of depth receivers and running backs.
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INDIANAPOLIS-NEW ORLEANS
OVER/UNDERS
Drew Brees OVER 305.5 PASSING YARDS – While he still has the capability of putting up big numbers and the Saints’ 40-year-old quarterback has thrown for more than 305 yards in four of eight starts, he’s also had some mediocre results, too, leading to an average of 267.5 passing yards per game. However, that average includes the game in which Brees was injured early and he is going up against a Colts team that is allowing 245.4 passing yards per game and 7.6 passing yards per attempt, both of which rank below league average.
Jacoby Brissett UNDER 233.5 PASSING YARDS – The Colts quarterback has thrown for more than 233 yards in five of 12 starts this season and, like Brees, he has one start that was cut short very early by injury. While the Saints are allowing 244.1 passing yards per game, it’s only at 7.0 passing yards per attempt, which is an above average rate.
Jack Doyle UNDER 4.5 RECEPTIONS – As much as Doyle has the opportunity to play a bigger role for the Colts in the wake of Eric Ebron headed to IR for the rest of the season, Doyle has also had five or more catches once all season – Week 13, when he had six catches on 11 targets against Tennessee – so it’s hard to bank on Doyle putting up those numbers in a single game.
Alvin Kamara UNDER 17.5 FANTASY POINTS – At the start of the season, Kamara was one of the premier backs in fantasy football but after an injury, he’s really struggled to get back into form. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 3 and has been held under 100 yards in four of the past six games.
RAPID FIRE
Marlon Mack +1.5 rushing yards vs. Alvin Kamara – Both teams offer middle of the road run defense, and with Kamara not nearly as productive as hoped, that opens the door for Mack to hold his own in this matchup. There’s also the matter of it making more sense for the Colts to run the ball as much as possible and try to shorten the game if they can.
Michael Thomas -53.5 receiving yards vs. Zach Pascal – Pascal’s value is heavily dependent on the availability of T.Y. Hilton and if Hilton is able to play Monday night, that probably means fewer looks for Pascal who has 183 receiving yards in the past two games. The main point of this pick, though, is that Thomas is a monster, putting up more than 100 yards in five of the past six games.
Marlon Mack -25.5 rushing yards vs. Latavius Murray – While Murray has run for more than 60 yards twice in the past three games, he has been held under 30 rushing yards in three of the past five. He doesn’t get as many touches with Kamara back in the lineup and Mack is averaging 81.8 rushing yards per game.
