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Kipp Heisterman presents his expert NFL DFS prop picks for Week 11 of the Fantasy Football season. Use these prop picks to win money on Monkey Knife Fight, our partner for all DFS prop picks games.
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As always, there are a couple of games we can look to target this week including the Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers and Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders.
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Falcons @ Panthers
Fantasy Challenge Contest
Recommended Prop Pick: Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, and Julio Jones over 62.5 fantasy points.
This game has the third-highest total on the board at 50.5 and has the potential to be a fantasy bonanza with the way these defenses have given up points to the positions highlighted for this prop.
Let's start with McCaffrey vs. the Falcons run defense. The Falcons currently rank 14th in total rushing yards allowed to backs with 854, but they have been steadily rising in recent weeks. This also translates to them allowing nearly 95 rushing yards per game to opposing backs. They also allow running backs to average 18.3 fantasy points per game, and as we all know, McCaffrey is anything but average. McCaffrey is currently putting up nearly 110 rushing yards per game, 44 receiving yards per game, and over five receptions per game. The guy is an absolute beast as he is also averaging just over 30 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues, which is exactly how MKF scores their fantasy contests.
D.J. Moore should also have a successful game against the Falcons secondary, which is ranked ninth-worst in the league in terms of overall receiving yards allowed to wide receivers with 1,093 through nine games. They have also allowed the eighth-most receiving touchdowns to the position with 12, and are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points with 26.8 per game. Moore should be very successful in this game as he has become one of Kyle Allen's favorite targets in recent weeks. In the previous four games, Moore has been targeted 40 times and turned those targets into 28 receptions for 332 yards. He has struggled to find the end zone this season, but with the way the Falcons have been giving up scores to wideouts, he will have a great opportunity to get into the box.
Julio Jones has been on a tear this season, averaging over nine targets per game, 5.8 receptions per game, and 87.8 receiving yards per game. He has also managed to get in the box a total of four times in 2019. This sets up very well against a Panthers Defense that is currently allowing just over 179 receiving yards and 22.3 fantasy points per game to wide receivers. These rank fifth-worst and seventh-worst against wide receivers, respectively.
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Bengals @ Raiders
Over/Under Contest
Recommended Prop Pick: Derek Carr under 273.5 passing yards and Ryan Finley over 208.5 passing yards.
To me, this contest comes down to game flow. Vegas has this game projected with a total of 48.5 with the Raiders favored by 10.5. I think this comes down to a game where Oakland runs the ball frequently en route to putting up a big lead, which would then force the Bengals to throw the ball to attempt to keep it close. Both defenses play right into this setup as well.
The Bengals have the third-worst rushing defense in the league against running backs as they allow 116.4 yards per game on the ground. The only teams to allow more yards per game are the Chiefs and lowly Dolphins. Josh Jacobs should have a field day against the defense. He has carried the ball an average of 20 times per game for 95.25 yards over the previous four contests. While Carr has also gone over the total in three of these four games, they were games in which the Raiders trailed late and had to throw the ball. Even then, Carr barely eclipsed the total in those three games. That should not be the case on Sunday.
The Raiders have a terrible pass defense, which should allow Finley to eclipse this total. They have allowed quarterbacks to throw for over 300 yards per game. Their pass defense against quarterbacks is ranked third-worst on a per-game basis behind only the Cardinals and Buccaneers. Finley and the Bengals will almost certainly be trailing late in this game and be forced to throw. This sets up perfectly for him to go over the total.
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