X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

MLB Betting Picks (Futures): Player Props - Season Long Over/Under Picks

Logan Gilbert - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News, Starting Pitchers

Dan's free MLB betting picks - MLB player prop picks for the 2025 season. His top MLB player over/under prop bets for strikeouts, home runs, and stolen bases.

Even though the MLB season is still a full month away, the time to get those futures bets in is now, while you can still lock in the best odds on your favorite teams and players!

Earlier this week, I released my favorite team win total bets here, but now it's time to look at some season-long player props that we can target. While there are some worthy players to target for under (mainly injury-prone players), I'll highlight some overs today for players I'm very high on this season. I have some strikeout props for pitchers as well as some home run and stolen base props for hitters.

In this article, I'll make a case for some of my favorite player prop bets for the coming season. All odds are from either DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbooks. If you love a certain pick (or hate it), feel free to let me hear about them on X @ThunderDanDFS.

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code WIN. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

MLB Strikeout Props - Betting Picks

Logan Gilbert over 185.5 strikeouts (-105)

If you don't already know, we love to use Ariel Cohen's ATC projections here at RotoBaller for a lot of our preseason content. Ariel, like many folks, is pretty high on Gilbert this season and has him projected for 200 strikeouts over 194 innings.

That seems conservative, considering that Gilbert has made at least 32 starts in three straight seasons, striking out 189 and 220 in the last two years while ascending to the top tier of pitchers in the league.

Gilbert raised his K% to 27.4% last season and backed that up with an incredibly strong 15.9% SwStr%, which suggests he still could improve to the 30% K% range.

He's been a horse, eating innings, and as he continues to improve his arsenal of pitches, he'll only continue to improve as a strikeout pitcher. He'll be a lock for 200+ every season that he stays healthy. We are getting a very good number here at just 185.5.

Cole Ragans over 191.5 strikeouts (-113)

One of my favorite pitchers to watch last season was Ragans, who came out of nowhere in 2023 as a converted reliever when he was traded from Texas to KC. Ragans has fantastic stuff as he mixes in a cutter and three different offspeed pitches with his high-90s fastball to keep hitters off balance.

In his first full season as a starter, he blew away hitters and finished with 223 strikeouts - the second most in the American League behind Tarik Skubal.

His ATC projection this season is 213, which is a number that already bakes in the volatility of the player. While some were skeptical that Ragans could repeat his 2023 success throughout a full season in 2024, he ended up putting up even better numbers with a higher K%, lower BB%, lower ERA, and lower WHIP.

Ragans just signed a contract extension and will be the Royals ace for at least the next three years. He's a stud who has proven he can strike out hitters with the best of them.

 

MLB Home Run Props - Betting Picks

Yordan Alvarez over 33.5 HR (-120)

Alvarez has gone over this number in two of his last three seasons, with the only miss being his 31-homer campaign in 2023, when he played only 114 games due to some nagging injuries. He's one of the most feared left-handed power hitters in baseball and still only 27 years old - right in the middle of his prime.

Per Statcast, Alvarez finished last season with the seventh-best Brls/PA% at 10.9%. That simply means that every time he stepped to the plate, he had an 11% chance of barreling up the baseball, and we know that barrels turn into home runs more often than not.

He's increased his launch angle in a big way the last two seasons (up to 17.1% and 18.3% from 12% in 2022) and it's resulted in a major increase in his FB% as a result.

Despite being an extreme fly-ball hitter (47% last season) he also experienced his lowest HR/FB% of his career at 16%. If he had been around 22% instead (his career average), he would have probably had another three to five home runs.

I think he's a 40-HR guy if he stays healthy all season, and while most of the projections have him barely beating his number here, I like him to coast over it relatively easily.

Jake Burger over 24.5 HR (-125)

Burger is set to be the everyday first baseman for the Rangers this season after coming over to Texas in a trade with Miami. Burger's power outburst started two seasons ago in Chicago and continued in Miami after he was dealt there midway through the 2023 season.

His raw power has always been there, but he's made major improvements in his contact rates, cutting down on his strikeouts and putting the ball in play more often. He smashed 34 dingers in 2023 and 29 in 2024, so the fact we are getting his number so low at 24.5 baffles me a bit.

Perhaps the books think he could end up in a platoon or that his success isn't sustainable, but every single projection system (see picture above) has him crushing that 24.5 number this season and going well over 500 at-bats. This one feels easy; Burger is a legit 30-HR power bat who simply is getting no respect with his HR prop set at only 24.5.

 

MLB Stolen Base Props - Betting Picks

Jazz Chisholm over 33.5 SB (-112)

Going back to the ATC projections once again here as Ariel has Jazz swiping 38 bases in his first full season as a Yankee.

There's no question that he was a much better player last season after the trade from Miami to New York as he was not only much more productive at the plate, he was more productive on the bases, swiping 18 bases in pinstripes and finishing with 4o for the season.

It's really simple here - I am targeting a much happier and motivated Jazz this season. It was obvious that he hated being in Miami and loved being a Yankee (I mean, who wouldn't). He has elite speed and last year; he had the green light to run when he wanted.

I think he demolishes this number with 40 or more this year. I'm smashing the button on the over here and this is by far one of my favorite plays.

Fernando Tatis Jr. over 20.5 SB (-120)

Tatis has been battling injuries (and a suspension) now for several seasons, but he's been very vocal about how he feels as good as he has in three to four years going into this season. This is one pick where the projections don't back me and I'm going more with my gut here.

Tatis has been a great base-stealer when healthy, and he probably hasn't run as often the last several seasons because of his injuries. I realize we are banking on an injury-prone player to stay healthy here, but the reason we are getting his number so low is because his injury risk is baked into this number.

He's stolen 92 bases in 516 career games in his career. At that rate, he would only need to play 115 games this season to hit 21 steals. If we get anything close to 130 to 140 games from him, I think he will crush this number - as long as he continues to be the aggressive baserunner that he has been in the past.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Maxi Kleber

Tweaks Quadriceps Muscle in Lakers Practice on Wednesday
Quentin Grimes

Inks Deal to Return to 76ers
Alec Pierce

Logs Full Practice on Wednesday
Jauan Jennings

Ruled Out Against Rams on Thursday
Brock Purdy

Ruled Out for Thursday Against Rams
Ricky Pearsall

Ruled Out for Thursday
Jayden Daniels

Plans to Return on Sunday
Trey Benson

Sidelined 4-6 Weeks After Knee Surgery
Trey Benson

Going on Injured Reserve With Knee Injury
Luke List

Looking to Win Again at Sanderson Farms Championship
Tom Kim

Could Be in For Long Week in Mississippi
Max Homa

Are Things Beginning to Turn Around For Max Homa Ahead of Sanderson Farms?
Nicolai Hojgaard

an Interesting Play at Sanderson Farms
Lamar Jackson

Considered "Week-to-Week" With Hamstring Injury
Trey Benson

Questionable to Play in Week 5 with Knee Injury
Davis Thompson

Looks to Keep Momentum Going in Mississippi
Bucky Irving

Dealing With Foot Sprain, Spotted at Practice on Crutches
Nick Dunlap

Hoping to Turn Woes Around at Sanderson Farms Championship
PGA

Matti Schmid a Volatile Option at Sanderson Farms
Thorbjorn Olesen

a Solid Play at Sanderson Farms
Stephan Jaeger

a High-Upside Play in Mississippi
Shedeur Sanders

Reamins the Browns QB3 in Week 5
Hayden Buckley

Trying to Find Form at Sanderson Farms
Ben Martin

Struggling Mightily with Golf Game
Dillon Gabriel

Getting the Start Sunday Against the Vikings
Jacob Bridgeman

Leaning on his Putter at Sanderson Farms
Lanto Griffin

Heating Up for Sanderson Farms Championship
Quade Cummins

Trying to Make Cut at Sanderson Farms
Carson Young

Aims to Rebound from Procore Championship
Matt Kuchar

Still a Golfer to Watch This Week
Doug Ghim

Trending Up for Sanderson Farms Championship
Kyle Filipowski

Battling a Back Problem
Eric Cole

May Struggle at Sanderson Farms Championship
Lauri Markkanen

Sits Out Practice Due to Wrist Injury
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Ready for Sanderson Farms Championship
Jeremy Sochan

Cleared for Training Camp
Marcus Smart

Dealing With Achilles Issue
Steven Adams

Rockets to Be Cautious With Steven Adams' Workload
Kevin Porter Jr.

Set to Start for Bucks
J.T. Miller

Considered Day-to-Day
James van Riemsdyk

to Rejoin Team Wednesday
Vince Dunn

Labeled as Day-to-Day
Nils Hoglander

to Sit Out 8-10 Weeks After Surgery
Mats Zuccarello

Expected to Miss 7-8 Weeks
Kirill Kaprizov

Signs Largest Contract in NHL History
Mackenzie Hughes

Eyes Another Strong Week at Sanderson Farms
Andrew Putnam

a Solid Value Play in Mississippi
Jonathan Kuminga

Set to Return to Warriors After Agreeing to New Deal
Jalen Suggs

Takes Part in Non-Contact Drills on Tuesday
Aaron Jones Sr.

Preparing for a Week 8 Return
Scottie Barnes

Ready for Raptors Training Camp
Victor Wembanyama

Cleared for Spurs Training Camp
LeBron James

Held Out of Practice on Tuesday
Jarace Walker

Back to Form After Recovering From Ankle Injury
Tarik Skubal

Shines in Postseason Debut, Tigers Take Game 1 Over Guardians
CFB

Behren Morton To Start Against Houston Saturday
Dillon Gabriel

Expected to Start in Week 5
Walker Kessler

Frustrated by Extension Talks
Robert Williams III

Not Sure When He'll Be Ready
Cedric Tillman

Placed on Injured Reserve
Jerami Grant

Doesn't See Himself Coming Off the Bench
Darius Garland

Unsure When He'll Be Able To Play
Max Strus

Still Months Away From Playing
Lonzo Ball

Could Play Back-to-Backs This Season
Lamar Jackson

Likely to Miss Week 5 Against Houston, Could Miss 2-3 Weeks
Brock Purdy

Questionable to Play in Week 5
J.K. Dobbins

Tops 100 Rushing Yards in Week 4
Tyreek Hill

Might Not be Ready for Next Season
De'Andre Hunter

Believes He Will Be a Starter This Season
Tyreek Hill

Tore Multiple Ligaments, Including ACL
Texas Rangers

Rangers, Bruce Bochy Mutually Agree to Part Ways
Darren Waller

Catches Two Touchdowns in First Game Back
Minnesota Twins

Rocco Baldelli Fired as Twins Manager
San Francisco Giants

Giants Fire Manager Bob Melvin
Francisco Alvarez

to Have Thumb Surgery in the Coming Days
Bo Bichette

Blue Jays Optimistic Bo Bichette Can Return for Division Series
Lucas Giolito

Won't be on Wild-Card Roster With Elbow Issue
Alex Bregman

Should be Good for Game 1 of Wild-Card Series
Lukas Dostal

Day-to-Day With Lower-Body Injury
Mattias Samuelsson

Out Week-to-Week
Bowen Byram

Considered Day-to-Day
Dylan Samberg

Ruled Out for 6-8 Weeks
J.T. Miller

Suffers Apparent Lower-Body Injury at Practice
Tyson Foerster

Makes Preseason Debut Monday
Alex Ovechkin

Logs Full Practice Monday
Chase Elliott

Steals the Win at Kansas and Locks Into the Round of 8
Chase Briscoe

Earns Another Top-Five Finish at Kansas
Christopher Bell

Finishes Third at Kansas Speedway on Sunday
Kyle Larson

Strong Kansas Performance Positions Him to Advance in the 2025 Playoffs
Joey Logano

Kansas Struggles End In Disappointment
Dominick Reyes

Suffers First-Round Knockout Loss
Carlos Ulberg

Gets First-Round Knockout
Ivan Erslan

Loses Third Fight in a Row
Ramon Taveras

Drops Decision At UFC Perth
Jack Jenkins

Gets Back In The Win Column
Jake Matthews

Suffers Third-Round Submission Loss
Neil Magny

Pulls Off Comeback Win
Noel Acciari

to Remain Out Monday
Vasily Podkolzin

Returning to Edmonton Tuesday
Mats Zuccarello

Without Timeline for Return
Charlie Campbell

Suffers First-Round Submission Loss
Tom Nolan

Gets First-Round Submission Win
Jonas Brodin

Returns to Full Practice
Alex Vlasic

Hurt on Sunday
Macklin Celebrini

Expects to Be Ready for Season Opener
Denny Hamlin

Despite Power-Steering Failure, Denny Hamlin Dominates and Finishes Second at Kansas
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace's Playoff Bid Likely Ends After Scrape With Boss at Kansas
William Byron

Runs Poorly, Still Finishes in the Top 10
Tyler Reddick

Finishes Seventh at Kansas Despite Distractions
Shane Van Gisbergen

Earns First Cup Series Top-10 Finish on an Oval
Pete Alonso

to Opt Out of Contract and Enter Free Agency
Clayton Kershaw

Not Available for Wild-Card Series
Max Muncy

Expected to be Ready for Game 1 of Wild-Card Series
Bo Bichette

Without a Timeline, Unlikely to Return in Postseason?
Jared McCann

on Track to Be Available for Opening Night
Brandon Montour

Expected to be Available for Season Opener
Noah Gragson

May Be A Sneaky DFS Option For Kansas Lineups
Todd Gilliland

Is A Quality Value Option for Kansas Lineups
Kyle Larson

the Favorite to Win at Kansas
Ryan Blaney

the Chalk DFS Play at Kansas
Denny Hamlin

Has Struggled at 1.5-Mile Tracks This Season
William Byron

a Solid DFS Pivot at Kansas
Alex Bowman

Will Alex Bowman's Top-10 Streak at Kansas Continue?
Ryan Preece

Should Have Speed at Kansas
Christopher Bell

Has Been Consistent at Kansas Despite Rarely Contending to Win
Joey Logano

Miserable Qualifying Result Makes Joey Logano a Top DFS Contender
Chase Elliott

Likely to Make Round of 8, but Has Hardly Been Inspiring
Ranger Suárez

Ranger Suarez Exits Early With Thigh Contusion in Loss
Trea Turner

to Return on Sunday
Ramón Laureano

Ramon Laureano Lands on 10-Day Injured List
Brett Baty

Lands on 10-Day Injured List With Oblique Strain
Cade Horton

Goes on 15-Day Injured List With Fractured Rib
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Exits After Hit by Pitch, X-Rays Negative
Josh Naylor

Suffering from "Minor Groin Tightness"
Pete Crow-Armstrong

Locks Up 30-30 Season
Giancarlo Stanton

Crushes Two Homers in Five-RBI Night
CFB

Caden Durham Doubtful for Saturday at Mississippi
Dominick Reyes

Looks For His Fourth Consecutive Win
Carlos Ulberg

Set For UFC Perth Main Event
Ivan Erslan

Looks For His First UFC Win
Jimmy Crute

A Favorite At UFC Perth
Jack Jenkins

Aims To Get Back In The Win Column
Ramon Taveras

An Underdog At UFC Perth
Neil Magny

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Jake Matthews

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Louie Sutherland

Set For His UFC Debut
Justin Tafa

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Charlie Campbell

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Tom Nolan

Set To Open Up UFC Perth Main Card