X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

MLB Betting Picks (Futures): Player Props - Season Long Over/Under Picks

Logan Gilbert - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News, Starting Pitchers

Dan's free MLB betting picks - MLB player prop picks for the 2025 season. His top MLB player over/under prop bets for strikeouts, home runs, and stolen bases.

Even though the MLB season is still a full month away, the time to get those futures bets in is now, while you can still lock in the best odds on your favorite teams and players!

Earlier this week, I released my favorite team win total bets here, but now it's time to look at some season-long player props that we can target. While there are some worthy players to target for under (mainly injury-prone players), I'll highlight some overs today for players I'm very high on this season. I have some strikeout props for pitchers as well as some home run and stolen base props for hitters.

In this article, I'll make a case for some of my favorite player prop bets for the coming season. All odds are from either DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbooks. If you love a certain pick (or hate it), feel free to let me hear about them on X @ThunderDanDFS.

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 50% off using code SMASH. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

MLB Strikeout Props - Betting Picks

Logan Gilbert over 185.5 strikeouts (-105)

If you don't already know, we love to use Ariel Cohen's ATC projections here at RotoBaller for a lot of our preseason content. Ariel, like many folks, is pretty high on Gilbert this season and has him projected for 200 strikeouts over 194 innings.

That seems conservative, considering that Gilbert has made at least 32 starts in three straight seasons, striking out 189 and 220 in the last two years while ascending to the top tier of pitchers in the league.

Gilbert raised his K% to 27.4% last season and backed that up with an incredibly strong 15.9% SwStr%, which suggests he still could improve to the 30% K% range.

He's been a horse, eating innings, and as he continues to improve his arsenal of pitches, he'll only continue to improve as a strikeout pitcher. He'll be a lock for 200+ every season that he stays healthy. We are getting a very good number here at just 185.5.

Cole Ragans over 191.5 strikeouts (-113)

One of my favorite pitchers to watch last season was Ragans, who came out of nowhere in 2023 as a converted reliever when he was traded from Texas to KC. Ragans has fantastic stuff as he mixes in a cutter and three different offspeed pitches with his high-90s fastball to keep hitters off balance.

In his first full season as a starter, he blew away hitters and finished with 223 strikeouts - the second most in the American League behind Tarik Skubal.

His ATC projection this season is 213, which is a number that already bakes in the volatility of the player. While some were skeptical that Ragans could repeat his 2023 success throughout a full season in 2024, he ended up putting up even better numbers with a higher K%, lower BB%, lower ERA, and lower WHIP.

Ragans just signed a contract extension and will be the Royals ace for at least the next three years. He's a stud who has proven he can strike out hitters with the best of them.

 

MLB Home Run Props - Betting Picks

Yordan Alvarez over 33.5 HR (-120)

Alvarez has gone over this number in two of his last three seasons, with the only miss being his 31-homer campaign in 2023, when he played only 114 games due to some nagging injuries. He's one of the most feared left-handed power hitters in baseball and still only 27 years old - right in the middle of his prime.

Per Statcast, Alvarez finished last season with the seventh-best Brls/PA% at 10.9%. That simply means that every time he stepped to the plate, he had an 11% chance of barreling up the baseball, and we know that barrels turn into home runs more often than not.

He's increased his launch angle in a big way the last two seasons (up to 17.1% and 18.3% from 12% in 2022) and it's resulted in a major increase in his FB% as a result.

Despite being an extreme fly-ball hitter (47% last season) he also experienced his lowest HR/FB% of his career at 16%. If he had been around 22% instead (his career average), he would have probably had another three to five home runs.

I think he's a 40-HR guy if he stays healthy all season, and while most of the projections have him barely beating his number here, I like him to coast over it relatively easily.

Jake Burger over 24.5 HR (-125)

Burger is set to be the everyday first baseman for the Rangers this season after coming over to Texas in a trade with Miami. Burger's power outburst started two seasons ago in Chicago and continued in Miami after he was dealt there midway through the 2023 season.

His raw power has always been there, but he's made major improvements in his contact rates, cutting down on his strikeouts and putting the ball in play more often. He smashed 34 dingers in 2023 and 29 in 2024, so the fact we are getting his number so low at 24.5 baffles me a bit.

Perhaps the books think he could end up in a platoon or that his success isn't sustainable, but every single projection system (see picture above) has him crushing that 24.5 number this season and going well over 500 at-bats. This one feels easy; Burger is a legit 30-HR power bat who simply is getting no respect with his HR prop set at only 24.5.

 

MLB Stolen Base Props - Betting Picks

Jazz Chisholm over 33.5 SB (-112)

Going back to the ATC projections once again here as Ariel has Jazz swiping 38 bases in his first full season as a Yankee.

There's no question that he was a much better player last season after the trade from Miami to New York as he was not only much more productive at the plate, he was more productive on the bases, swiping 18 bases in pinstripes and finishing with 4o for the season.

It's really simple here - I am targeting a much happier and motivated Jazz this season. It was obvious that he hated being in Miami and loved being a Yankee (I mean, who wouldn't). He has elite speed and last year; he had the green light to run when he wanted.

I think he demolishes this number with 40 or more this year. I'm smashing the button on the over here and this is by far one of my favorite plays.

Fernando Tatis Jr. over 20.5 SB (-120)

Tatis has been battling injuries (and a suspension) now for several seasons, but he's been very vocal about how he feels as good as he has in three to four years going into this season. This is one pick where the projections don't back me and I'm going more with my gut here.

Tatis has been a great base-stealer when healthy, and he probably hasn't run as often the last several seasons because of his injuries. I realize we are banking on an injury-prone player to stay healthy here, but the reason we are getting his number so low is because his injury risk is baked into this number.

He's stolen 92 bases in 516 career games in his career. At that rate, he would only need to play 115 games this season to hit 21 steals. If we get anything close to 130 to 140 games from him, I think he will crush this number - as long as he continues to be the aggressive baserunner that he has been in the past.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Kirk Cousins

"Officially" Starting in Week 8
Michael Penix Jr.

"Has a Real Chance" to Return in Week 9
Lamar Jackson

NFL to Review Practice "Situation" Surrounding Lamar Jackson
Bryce Young

Hopeful to Play in Week 9
Patrik Laine

Ruled Out for 3-4 Months
Brandon Montour

Ready to Face Oilers
Pierre-Luc Dubois

Available Saturday
Roman Josi

Out Week-to-Week With Upper-Body Injury
Anze Kopitar

Set to Rejoin Kings Lineup Saturday
William Nylander

Good to Go Saturday
Morgan Rielly

Returns to Action Saturday
Drake London

Downgraded to Questionable with Hip Injury
Christian Watson

Activated from Injured Reserve, Set for Season Debut
Zaccharie Risacher

Out Again on Saturday
Mark Williams

Sidelined Versus Denver
Jalen Johnson

Uncertain to Suit Up Versus OKC
Andrew Nembhard

Ruled Out Against Memphis
Kristaps Porzingis

Questionable on Saturday Night
Jalen Suggs

Ruled Out on Saturday
Chet Holmgren

Available to Face the Hawks
Tyrod Taylor

Ruled Out for Week 8 Due to Knee Injury
Terry McLaurin

Will Return in Week 8 After Four-Game Absence
Deebo Samuel Sr.

"Good to Go," Will Play in Week 8
Lamar Jackson

Will Not Play in Week 8, Expected to Return in Week 9
Lamar Jackson

May Be "a Week Away" From Returning
Chris Olave

Saints Unlikely to Trade Chris Olave
Brian Thomas Jr.

Jaguars Listening To Calls For Brian Thomas Jr.
Dillon Gabriel

Browns Want to See More from Dillon Gabriel
Kirk Cousins

Highly Likely to Start in Week 8
Jonathan Lekkerimaki

to Miss 2-3 Weeks
Matt Duchene

Expected to Remain Out Saturday
Alexander Kerfoot

Undergoes Surgery
Tyson Kozak

to Miss Rematch With Maple Leafs
William Nylander

Injured on Friday
Joseph Woll

Rejoins Maple Leafs
Dalton Schultz

Will Play Against 49ers in Week 8
Bryce Harper

Phillies Aren't Planning to Trade Bryce Harper
Josh Hart

Available Versus the Celtics
Karl-Anthony Towns

Cleared to Face the Celtics
De'Andre Hunter

Sidelined on Friday Night
Kristaps Porzingis

Won't Play on Friday
Nick Leddy

to Sit Out at Least Two Games
Nico Collins

Texans Rule Out Nico Collins for Week 8
Cody Glass

Set to Miss Time
Jason Zucker

Expected to Play Friday
Pierre-Luc Dubois

Misses Fifth Straight Game Friday
Brandon Aiyuk

Could Return to Practice Next Week
Morgan Rielly

Out on Friday
Lukas Reichel

Canucks Acquire Lukas Reichel
Brock Purdy

Officially Ruled Out for Week 8
VEG

Carter Hart Signs Two-Year Deal With Golden Knights
Vince Williams Jr.

Grizzlies Injury Woes Continue, Without Vince Williams Jr. Friday
A.J. Brown

Ruled Out For Week 8
Bo Bichette

Starting at Second, Batting Cleanup in Game 1 of World Series
Lamar Jackson

Officially Listed as Questionable to Play in Week 8
Jae'Sean Tate

Questionable to Return Friday
Danny Wolf

Will Miss Friday's Matchup with Ankle Injury
Drake Powell

Rookie Drake Powell Ruled Out for Matchup with Cavs
Bo Bichette

Makes World Series Roster
Ciryl Gane

Scheduled For A Title Fight
Tom Aspinall

Set for First Official Title Defense
Mackenzie Dern

Can Become The New Strawweight Champion
Virna Jandiroba

Set For UFC 321 Co-Main Event
Mario Bautista

Aims To Extend His Win Streak
MMA

Umar Numagomedov A Favorite At UFC 321
Jailton Almeida

Hopes To Get A Title Shot With A Win
Caris LeVert

Probable for Friday's Game
Alexander Volkov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Luka Garza

Unavailable Friday
Moritz Wagner

Remains Out Friday
Azamat Murzakanov

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Ja'Kobe Walter

Iffy for Friday Night
Aleksandar Rakic

In Dire Need Of Victory
Daniel Gafford

Listed as Questionable for Friday
Jeremy Sochan

Sits Out Friday's Game
Rasmus Sandin

Won't Play on Friday
CFB

Texas Tech QB Will Hammond Will Start vs. Oklahoma State Saturday
CFB

Kansas State RB Dylan Edwards Out For Sunflower Showdown
CFB

Arizona State WR Jordyn Tyson Will Not Play In Week 9
Zack Wheeler

Could be Ready for Opening Day in 2026
William Contreras

Could Need Finger Surgery
CFB

Utah QB Devon Dampier Listed as Questionable on Big 12 Injury Report
San Francisco Giants

Tony Vitello Named New Manager of the Giants
Francisco Lindor

has Elbow Surgery, Expected to be Ready for Spring Training
PGA

Alex Noren is a Smash Play at Bank of Utah Championship
Maverick McNealy

Look Out For Maverick McNealy This Week in Utah
Justin Lower

Unlikely to Flip The Script at Bank of Utah Championship
Stephan Jaeger

Looking for Repeat Performance in Utah
CFB

Behren Morton Will be Listed as Questionable on Wednesday
Max McGreevy

a Longer Shot to Contend in Utah
Jackson Suber

on the Bubble for the PGA in 2026
Greyson Sigg

Improving at the Right Time This Fall
Seamus Power

Hopes to Make More Birdies This Week
Patton Kizzire

May Struggle Once Again in Utah
Beau Hossler

Up and Down Heading to Bank of Utah Championship
Adam Hadwin

Looking to Find the Weekend in Utah
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Enjoying the Fall Golf Season
Tom Hoge

Sputtering into Bank of Utah Championship
Sahith Theegala

On the Upswing Heading into Utah
Andrew Putnam

Looks to Find Form in Utah
Matt McCarty

Looks to Defend Title in Utah
Ben Kohles

a Strong Value Play at Bank of Utah Championship
Max Homa

Trending Up Entering the Bank of Utah Championship
Nick Dunlap

Searching for Spark at Bank of Utah Championship
Quade Cummins

Struggling to Find Form Ahead of Bank of Utah Championship
Jason Day

Making a Spot Start at Bank of Utah Championship
Los Angeles Angels

Kurt Suzuki to be the Angels' Next Manager
Bo Bichette

Plans to be Ready for World Series
Brandon Woodruff

Expects to Be Ready for Opening Day
Reinier de Ridder

Reinier De Ridder Suffers His First UFC Loss
Brendan Allen

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Kevin Holland

Drops Decision
Mike Malott

Wins Third Fight In A Row
Marlon Vera

Loses Third Consecutive Fight
Aiemann Zahabi

Gets A Razor-Thin Split Decision Win
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Suffers First-Round TKO Loss
Manon Fiorot

Gets Back In The Win Column
Davey Grant

Suffers Submission Loss
Charles Jourdain

Gets First-Round Submission Win
Matt Frevola

Gets Dominated At UFC Vancouver