X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Kyler Murray Is a QB1 in 2019 Redraft Leagues

Arizona Cardinals rookie quarterback Kyler Murray is being undervalued in redraft leagues, as fantasy football owners are focusing more on his dynasty value than his ability to pay immediate dividends. Jason Katz explains why he should be considered a QB1 in 2019.

For reasons that are completely understandable, the primary focus on rookies after they are drafted is on their long-term outlook, particularly as it pertains to keeper/dynasty formats. Much of the discussion centers around where a rookie should go in a rookie draft and how valuable he will be over the next few years.

What about the redraft leagues? With all of the talk on Kyler Murray's future, his present is being glossed over.

We know that the quarterback position itself is devalued in standard, single-QB redraft leagues. Even understanding that to be the case, Kyler Murray is being seriously undervalued in terms of what he can do as a rookie.

Editor's Note: Stay on top of your draft prep with RotoBaller’s fantasy football rankings, featuring expert analysis, ADPs, and draft insights for both PPR and non-PPR leagues.

 

Three Tiers High and Rising

Let's start with Murray's ADP. Now, it is currently May. Once Murray plays in the preseason, all it will take is a couple of highlight-reel plays to spike his ADP multiple rounds. Such is the fickle nature of fantasy gamers. Recency bias is strong. As of now, Murray is trending as a high-end QB2 going in the 10th round. I rarely consider a QB any earlier than the ninth round, but even if Murray gets to the eighth round, he may be worth it on upside alone.

Murray is currently going behind guys like Philip Rivers, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, and Carson Wentz. Murray has a higher ceiling than all of them. If you're waiting on a QB, you don't need a guy that is going to be a reliable QB1 like Rivers has been for the better part of a decade (seriously, he's the QB10-14 every year, why are people drafting him on purpose?).

In 2018, the Arizona Cardinals attempted just 495 passes as a team, 29th in the league. They ranked dead last in plays per drive at 5.03 and yards per drive at 21.18. By a number of offensive team metrics, the Cardinals were the worst. The team played slow, failed to extend drives, and called ineffective and inefficient plays. We know that QB volume does not correlate with fantasy points, but we also know that passing is the most effective way to move the ball down the field and extend drives. The Cardinals are going to pass a lot more in 2019, which will achieve first downs, allow the offense to run more plays, and result in more points scored.

 

Air Raid Remix

I don't profess to know how Kliff Kingsbury, an unsuccessful college coach, will perform in the NFL. What I am quite confident in saying is that Kingsbury's offense will score points.

Kingsbury is bringing his Air Raid offense to Arizona and, by all accounts, he is prepared to go all in on the passing game. The Cardinals drafted Christian Kirk last year, who is poised for a second-year breakout and spent two picks this year on WRs Andy Isabella and Hakeem Butler. With David Johnson ready to be used properly, Murray has weapons at his disposal.

Murray threw for 4361 yards at Oklahoma last season and rushed for another 1001, scoring a total of 59 touchdowns. We know that rushing QBs are a cheat code in fantasy football. Last year, after returning from injury in Week 12, Josh Allen was the overall fantasy QB1 over the remainder of the season. During that same timeframe, Lamar Jackson was the QB6. Kyler Murray is a vastly superior player to either of those two guys. Both Allen and Jackson were bad passers. Murray completed 69% of his throws in college last season. Murray is accurate to all areas of the field, both short and deep. He has displayed an incredible ability to maneuver in the pocket and avoid pressure, which will mask the deficiencies of the Cardinals' weak offensive line.

I really can't envision a scenario where Murray isn't at least what Lamar Jackson was last year from a fantasy perspective, surviving weekly on his rushing ability. Murray is going to run. He is going to run a lot. Murray should rush for at least a touchdown's worth of yardage per game, probably more. Is it really that difficult to project Murray for 200 yards passing and 50 rushing yards per game as well as two touchdowns? That's 21 fantasy points per game. 21 ppg would have made him the overall QB4 last year and it doesn't seem that difficult to attain.

But what happens if the offense takes off and Murray just lights it up? He has a Patrick Mahomes-level ceiling. The sky is genuinely the limit for Murray. A 1,000-yard rushing season is not out of the question. Neither is a 40-touchdown passing season. I'm not suggesting that either of these things is likely, merely that they are plausible.

 

Bet on Upside

If you are taking a shot on a QB late, it should be Kyler Murray. He has overall QB1 upside and a safe, low-end QB1 floor. I think his floor is just as high, if not higher than most of the guys going around him and none of those guys have a top three ceiling. Murray does. You can easily stream a low-end QB1 every week. For a QB to matter in matchups, he needs to be elite. Murray has that in his range of outcomes and that fact may justify taking him a round or two earlier than you normally would take a QB on the chance that he could make much more of a difference than the WR or RB dart you would otherwise be throwing.

I am extremely bullish on Murray and believe he will finish as a top-six fantasy QB as a rookie leading a resurgent Cardinals offense. We can revisit his ADP in August, but, for now, you should be prepared to target Kyler Murray in redraft leagues.

More NFL Rookie Profiles


Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Yordan Alvarez

Resumes Swinging -- Return Imminent?
Jake Burger

to Miss an Additional 2-3 Weeks
TreVeyon Henderson

Signs Rookie Contract
Christian Watson

Goes on PUP List
Austin Riley

Hopes to be Activated Next Week
Ketel Marte

Lands on Restricted List After Burglary
Ricky Pearsall

Heads to PUP List
Brandon Aiyuk

Placed on PUP List
Luther Burden III

Signs Rookie Deal
Washington Nationals

Eli Willits Expected to Sign Contract on Saturday
Grayson Rodriguez

Being Shut Down Again - Will We See Him Again This Year?
Ezequiel Tovar

Activated and Back in Lineup on Friday
Max Fried

"Hopeful" to Pitch Next Week - Looks Like He'll Avoid IL Stint
Steven Kwan

Receives Injection in Wrist, Considered Day-to-Day
CJ Abrams

Back to Start Second Half
Alec Bohm

Back From Rib Injury on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Holdout to Spill into Regular Season?
Jalen McMillan

Bucs Offensive Coordinator Not Forgetting About Jalen McMillan
Levi Onwuzurike

to Miss at Least Four Games
Nick Emmanwori

Seahawks, Nick Emmanwori Reach Agreement on Rookie Deal
Max Holloway

Set For Main Event
Brandon Lowe

Back From 10-Day Injured List
Dustin Poirier

Set For His Final UFC Fight
Roman Kopylov

Set For Co-Main Event
Paulo Costa

Returns At UFC 318
Luis L. Ortiz

to Remain on Leave for Another Month - Will he Pitch Again?
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks For Third Win In A Row
Kevin Holland

Set For His Fourth Fight This Year
Dan Ige

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Patricio Freire Set For His Second UFC Fight
Daniel Zellhuber

Set To Open Up UFC 318 Main Card
Michael Johnson

Looks For Third Consecutive Win
Elijah Arroyo

Signs Rookie Deal
Jaydon Blue

Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF