Overvalued Fantasy Baseball Hitters To Avoid Drafting In 2025 (AL Edition)

February 21, 2025

Pranav looks at AL-Only fantasy baseball busts to avoid in 2025 fantasy baseball drafts. These overvalued hitters are risky draft picks for AL-Only leagues.

Running the same old league formats can get a little boring sometimes, but a fun way to spice them up is by opting for an AL-only league. In these formats, the player pool comprises only players on American League teams.

This league format can be a lot of fun, but also anxiety-inducing when you learn how high-stakes draft season can feel. There are so few players available that making a misstep may doom your whole season. To guide you in this format, I'll outline hitters in AL-only leagues who possess greater risk this season. 

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Ceddanne Rafaela, SS/OF, Boston Red Sox

With the recent acquisition of Alex Bregman, Boston has a good problem: too many decent players on its squad.

The expectation is that Bregman serves as the team's starting second baseman. Of the three big prospects in Boston, this signing likely will most negatively impact top prospect second baseman Kristian Campbell.

Campbell is still expected to see The Show in 2025, but he may not slide into regular plate appearances at second base with Vaughn Grissom and David Hamilton able to back up Bregman.

Campbell's versatility means he can find a pathway to plate appearances in the outfield. However, the outfield is just as clogged with talent, as Wilyer Abreu, Rafaela, and Roman Anthony all have a claim to spots.

Campbell likely won't be the odd man out, but a lot of the aforementioned names will have to lose plate appearances to make way for him. If you can, avoid chasing after any Boston outfielder. But if you have to gamble, do it in the late rounds.

The only name going off the board before the 200s is conveniently also the one with the worst bat. Rafaela surprised many with his production in fantasy baseball, slashing .246/.274/.390 with 15 home runs, 70 runs, 75 RBI, and 19 stolen bases through 152 games.

Those counting stats make the third-year player seem like an intriguing buy going into 2025, but a .273 xwOBA, .229 xBA, 46.4 percent chase rate (worst mark in the league among qualified hitters), 26.4 percent strikeout rate, and 2.6 percent walk rate make him the most expendable bat in that lineup.

While the Red Sox extended him last year, his $6.25 million AAV on an eight-year contract means a bench/minors stint won't hurt either party too much (he has two options remaining). Rafaela's bat is simply not good enough to warrant taking him at his 173 ADP in standard leagues, much less at a higher price in AL-only leagues.

The "Core 4" is a group of hitting metrics used inside the #RedSox organization to gauge performance.

Bat Speed, Bat to Ball, Swing Decisions, Ball Flight

Roman Anthony & Kristian Campbell are above-average to plus on all 4.

Broke it down on @MLBNetwork earlier today. 👀 pic.twitter.com/44zw9KpE9W

— Lance Brozdowski (@LanceBroz) February 12, 2025

Cedric Mullins, OF, Baltimore Orioles

As more talent flows into Baltimore, Cedric Mullins becomes less valuable in fantasy baseball. Once an inexpensive and high-volume (650+ PA) combination of power, contact, and speed, Mullins is now a back-of-the-order hitter whose only appeal is moderate power and speed that has become more ubiquitous in recent years.

In 2024, Mullins slashed .234/.305/.405 with 18 home runs, 54 RBI, 69 runs, and 32 stolen bases through 144 games (but only 499 plate appearances). Expected statistics show an even worse story, with Mullins carrying a .291 xwOBA, .227 xBA, .355 xSLG, and 15.5 xHR.

As it stands, the 30-year-old is a mediocre strong-side platoon bat who offers value in the stolen bases and runs category. While that is a useful roster piece in fantasy baseball, you can get more at his current ADP of 213 in standard formats.

Trevor Story, SS, Boston Red Sox

Since we're on the topic of the Boston Red Sox, the biggest red flag on that team is 32-year-old Trevor Story.

Story has yet to play over 100 games in any of his three seasons with the Red Sox. Last year, he only appeared in 26 games, slashing .255/.340/.394 with two home runs, eight runs, 10 RBI, six stolen bases, and a 31.1 percent strikeout rate.

It isn't reasonable to expect that over a full season in 2025, with a .373 BABIP, .255 xwOBA, .193 xBA, and 29.5 percent hard-hit rate in that small sample, giving last year's performance as much credence to the beliefs of the anti-Story camp.

At this point, you can't be confident he plays anything close to a full season on the diamond. ATC isn't confident of a renaissance season, with the bar set at a .297 wOBA, 13 home runs, and 19 stolen bases through 113 games.

While Story's 248 ADP in standard formats makes him an easy player to throw a late-round pick at, there are several high-ceiling middle infielders in that range with cleaner bills of health (e.g., Jackson Holliday, Zack Gelof, Gleyber Torres).

Jackson Holliday struck out too much and had below-average contact metrics with Baltimore last season, but he also had a 45.1 percent hard-hit rate and a 95th percentile sprint speed.

The upside here is still a Top 5 player at the second base position. pic.twitter.com/Prol8WQ3rX

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) February 15, 2025

Anthony Santander, OF, Toronto Blue Jays

After eight seasons with the Orioles, outfielder Anthony Santander cashed in with a five-year, $92.5 million contract with the Toronto Blue Jays.

He deserved that big contract after a career year, slashing .235/.308/.506 with 44 home runs, 91 runs, 102 RBI, two stolen bases, and a .345 wOBA through 155 games.

You can't fake 44 home runs and 102 RBI, but the 30-year-old is not all clear for 2025. A .445 xSLG and a .324 xwOBA immediately take him down a couple of notches. After seeing the 36 xHR mark, you may doubt handing him the top-100 pick he fetches in even the most competitive fantasy baseball leagues.

He is a one-category star who drags you down needlessly in the AVG and SB category. Now, on a less productive Blue Jays offense, don't waste an early round pick on Santander.

Jose Altuve, 2B, Houston Astros

For over a decade, Jose Altuve has been one of the sport's most reliable players. Going into his age-34 season, Altuve seemingly maintained that label. Through 153 games, Altuve slashed .295/.350/.439 with 20 HR, 65 RBI, 94 runs, 22 stolen bases, and a 17.4 percent strikeout rate.

However, there was some underlying decay in Altuve's profile. His normally abysmal chase rate escalated to dire levels, with a 37.3 percent chase rate. And while his .344 wOBA justifies some of his support, the .316 xwOBA warrants more attention.

The light-hitting second baseman has been good for 20+ home runs in six out of his last nine seasons. While he got to 20 last year, his 17.6 xHR mark signals that it isn't a reasonable expectation going into 2025.

While he still managed 22 stolen bases, a 27.1 ft/sec sprint speed last year likely won't see much improvement this season. Additionally, the leadoff man will suffer from a decrease in overall offensive production due to the loss of stars Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman.

He sees an expensive 56 ADP in standard leagues, but the scarcity brought about by an AL-only league takes him off the board much earlier than any other second baseman.

While he should remain one of the best second basemen in AL-only leagues in 2025, the gap between Altuve and the rest of the pack has gotten much smaller.

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