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This is the fourth day of the NBA season, but only the second big slate as we have been teased a bit with two different two-gamers on Tuesday and Thursday. We get 11 games tonight in the association and some really fun match-ups to target for betting and DFS.
The toughest part about making picks today is trying not to overreact to just one game from teams. At the same time, we can't totally ignore the first game, too, as teams may have played much faster or slower than last season and most teams are incorporating new players into their rotations. So it would be foolish to only use data from last season, but equally foolish to just run projections with only a one-game sample size. We are trying a delicate balancing act today!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets
- 2022-2023 Overall Record: 3-2
- Against the Spread: 2-2
- Game/Team Totals: 1-0
- Moneyline Parlay: 0-1
- Teasers: 1-0
NBA Betting Picks: Against the Spread
Chicago Bulls (+1) @ Washington Wizards (223.5 total)
I was going my first look through the games last night and was surprised to see Washington favored here. Then this morning the line I noticed the line still hasn't moved, despite more bets coming in on the Bulls. Perhaps it's a trap and I don't like totally ignoring signals from potential sharp bettors, but I also think you have to trust your gut sometimes.
The Bulls pulled off a big win on Wednesday against Miami. That counts for something and while they are still not very good defensively, they are going to have the best player on the court tonight in DeMar DeRozan (yes, you heard me, Bradley Beal).
The Wizards won their opener, too, but beat a rebuilding Pacers team and couldn't separate from them at any point in that game. Color me not impressed. The Bulls should be the better team this season and we are getting them in a coin-flip game? I will back Chicago here and I think DDR and Vucevic drag the rest of this squad to another win.
The Pick: Bulls ML (-105)
Boston Celtics (-2.5) @ Miami Heat (219 total)
Again, I don't want to read too much into the first game but these teams had very contrasting results. The Celtics beat a good Sixers team by nine points and posted 125 points in the process, while the Heat allowed the Bulls to come back and beat them, struggling on offense and failing to stop DeRozan all game long. They should have their hands full with Jayson Tatum, who looked every bit like an MVP candidate against the Sixers. Both teams are good and deep, but the Celtics have had Miami's number - taking two of three from them in the regular season last year before beating them in seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Miami chose to rest a lot of their main guys in the preseason, and perhaps that accounted for some of the rust on opening night. They should play better here and this game should be a battle, but at the end I trust the Celtics with my money to find a way to pull it out. The money line is -140 if you don't want to sweat a close win, but 2.5 points aren't too much to cover either.
The Pick: Boston -2.5 (-110)
Toronto Raptors @ Brooklyn Nets (226.5 total)
I watched the entire Toronto game on Wednesday as they opened up against my Cavaliers and pulled off an impressive win, holding off Cleveland for a three-point victory. Toronto is such a gutsy team, I really respect the way they play defense and they have enough offense between Siakam, VanVleet, Trent Jr., and Barnes to support their suffocating defense.
Could the Nets have been any less impressive in their blowout loss to the Pelicans? Maybe I am just a hater, but I have been annoyed at how many people just assume that Brooklyn will be good this year because they have KD and Kyrie back and now Simmons in the mix. Sure, they will be a playoff team, but I think their lack of defense and lack of depth put them behind the other elite teams in the Eastern conference.
I am all over Toronto as the underdog here at plus money. I have way more confidence in Siakam and company playing their butts off and gutting out a win than I do in KD + Kyrie coming up big against a tough opponent.
The Pick: Raps ML (+120)
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NBA Betting Picks: Totals
New Orleans Pelicans (-6.5) @ Charlotte Hornets (230.5 total)
There are two really big totals on this slate and I am going to go in opposite directions on these big numbers. This game is more deserving of a 230.5 total than the Memphis-Houston game in my opinion. The way that New Orleans executed on offense against Brooklyn on Wednesday, they might score 230 points just themselves against this Charlotte defense!
All kidding aside, this is an elite game environment for scoring. Both teams played fast in their opener and were efficient in their offensive production. Charlotte did have the benefit of playing a terrible Spurs team, but that doesn't mean they won't still put up their fair share of points here, too. It's weird to say, but perhaps no LaMelo Ball for Charlotte is actually a GOOD thing for their offensive efficiency? It's definitely not a good thing for their franchise long term, but with Hayward and Rozier taking more shots and handling the ball more, we saw fewer turnovers and more made shots from the Hornets than we saw all preseason as LaMelo had struggled with his efficiency.
So I am slamming this over now, it's a big number but I think they'll get there. The Pelicans win, but Charlotte scores enough on their side to carry us over the finish line.
The Pick: OVER 230.5 (-110)
Memphis Grizzlies (-5.5) @ Houston Rockets (230.5 total)
So as I said earlier, not at all 230 totals are created equally. This game projects for "only" 100 possessions (six fewer than the New Orleans game) as neither team actually played all that fast in their openers. And neither team was very efficient on offense either. I think this total is juiced a bit too much based on the old perception of Houston being a doormat team that just got into track meets last year while losing. The Rockets got more respect on the spread today as 5.5 underdogs than they did as 10-point underdogs, but I think we are overvaluing Memphis's offense a bit here, too.
The Rockets played another really good offense in the opener, Atlanta, and that game finished at only 224. I see this one ending up somewhere around the same spot, a full five points lower than the total.
The Pick: UNDER 230.5 (-110)
I usually do a money line favorite parlay on bigger slates and then one teaser bet as well (usually a lot of underdogs, but not always).
Just know the risks involved with parlaying bets, we are increasing our potential payouts but adding more risk to every bet with every outcome that we include.
Favorite Moneyline Parlay: Memphis + New Orleans + Atlanta = (+161 DraftKings Sportsbrook)
Underdog 4.5 point Teaser: Toronto +7, Chicago +5.5, Portland +8.5 = (+150 DraftKings Sportsbook)
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