Welcome back, RotoBallers. In this article, I will cover five of my favorite boom or bust plays for Week 15 of the fantasy football season.

The Boom or Bust play is one of the most talked about aspects of fantasy football each week. Boom or Bust players can be used as lineup options in deeper leagues, when it appears you are a heavy underdog in your head-to-head matchup or even in Guaranteed Prize Pool Tournaments in DFS. Let's get rolling.

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Quarterback

Andrew Luck, Colts QB at MIN

Fantasy owners who went with the early round quarterback draft strategy have ridden Andrew Luck and his QB5 overall numbers so far this season to an appearance in the semi-finals, but in the playoffs, this may be the week to look toward the waiver wire for your quarterback. Luck’s two worst fantasy games of the season have been on the road against the Broncos and Packers.

In week 15, Luck and the Colts travel to Minnesota to face a defense that has allowed the third fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. With the tough road matchup, the Colts are 4.5 point underdogs with a team total of 20, a number they matched or surpassed in each of their first seven games, but have failed to surpass in three of their last five games. This is the perfect example of “not going with the guy who brought you there”, and I think it will end up being the right choice.

Verdict: Bust

 

Running Back

Tevin Coleman, Falcons RB vs SF

Tevin Coleman has been a high variance play throughout the season with scoring 14 or more PPR points in six of 10 games. Including scoring 19 or more in three games. The negative side of his variance can mostly be attributed to his health with two of his sub-10 PPR point games coming in the first two games back from injury. In week 14, Coleman looked healthy and had eight carries and two catches, two more touches than starter Devonta Freeman had in the game.

In week 15, the Falcons backfield will get to face a 49ers defense that has been porous against the run all season long, allowing the most fantasy points to running backs with an average of 27.9 PPR points per game. Even if Freeman returns to leading the backfield in touches, both players could have big days against the 49ers, especially if Julio Jones remains out.

Verdict: Boom

 

Wide Receiver

Alshon Jeffery, Bears WR vs GBP

Alshon Jeffery was having the worst season since his rookie year with 40 catches for 630 receiving yards and one touchdown in nine games when he was suspended four weeks ago. Alshon was struggling in an offense that was struggling to move the ball at all, particularly in the red zone.

In week 15, Jeffery returns to a Bears offense that has actually shown some promise, scoring 16 points or more in each of the last four games, including a 26 point performance against the 49ers in week 13. With Jeffery’s disappointing performance this season, many are struggling to put him into their playoff lineups, but with Matt Barkley showing competence and the Packers defense surrendering the eighth most fantasy points to wide receivers, Jeffery should put up WR2 numbers with possible WR1 upside.

Verdict: Boom

 

Tight End

Charles Clay, Bills TE vs CLE

There may be questions about Rex Ryan and even Tyrod Taylor’s job security, but there aren't any questions about how bad the Cleveland Browns defense has been this season. Charles Clay has surpassed 10 PPR points only three times this season. However, I think some of that can be contributed to the health of Charles Clay as he has frequently been listed as questionable with various injuries, along with missing a game in week 13.

In week 14, Clay scored a season high 14 PPR points. In week 15, Clay faces a Browns defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to tight ends with an average of 11.6 points per game. The downfield threat of Sammy Watkins opens up the middle of the field Charles Clay to be successful, so if you are soured on Clay because he has scored fewer than eight PPR points in eight of 12 games this season, some of that can be attributed to a lack of Sammy Watkins who is back and finally starting to look healthy again.

Verdict: Boom

 

Hail Mary of the Week

In the Hail Mary of the Week, I will choose a Boom/Bust candidate who is available on the waiver wire or at the end of benches in most fantasy football leagues and could have a big week:

Alex Smith, Chiefs QB vs TEN

It is unlikely that you are going to the waiver wire for a starter at running back or wide receiver during the playoffs, but it may be more viable to go to the wire for a quarterback. Year after year, week after week, Alex Smith seems like one of the more popular late round quarterback and streaming quarterbacks, yet he consistently goes unowned in over 50% of leagues.

I trust Alex Smith in my playoff matchups in one of his best matchups of the season against a Titans defense that has allowed the third most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Even if it is a “Hail Mary” play, there is value in safety at the quarterback position in the playoffs and Smith has scored 17 fantasy points in each of the last three games. Smith also gets a healthier Maclin in his second week back from injury along with a continually emerging Tyreek Hill who has given the Chiefs a big play threat they have lacked in recent years.