X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Early 2020 ADP Reflections - First Base

When a baseball season ends, the following season can’t come here soon enough for some fans, myself included. We start thinking about what we want to see from some players, which includes letdowns, bounce-backs, and even young prospects. Instead of letting them bounce off the brain walls, let’s put these musings into digits. This includes things to watch out for as the season approaches that will affect drafts and in-season management. Some will force further research in the offseason.

This series will provide a few insights and items for consideration at each position; this week we dive into the first basemen. There will be more juicy morsels than the catcher spot (reviewed last week), but it still isn't as plentiful as we would like. Thankfully, it is top-heavy with skilled players, giving us something to toasts with our bourbon du jour.

There are enough solid first basemen to go around for everyone if you play in a 12-team league and everyone shares nicely so that each team gets one. If that scenario doesn't happen, things start to get dicey. Looking at early NFBC results, there are two elite options, one power play, and then a gaggle near pick 65. There are still decent options after that, but the questions start to mount. My preference* is to wait until the seventh round if I don't get one of the two elite players. Make no mistake about it, first base can get ugly quickly if you aren't paying attention. Pay attention.

Be sure to check all of our preseason fantasy baseball rankings for Roto, Points, H2H, dynasty, best ball, prospects and more:

Accelerating Off The Line

  • Will Danny Santana (ADP: 120) become baseball's version of a one-hit-wonder? The current love is tied to power/speed combo at a weak position. He doesn’t believe in walks(4.9%) just so he can smack the crap out of the ball (91.4mph avg exit velo). I might watch from a bit further back than the seventh round to keep an eye on his .353 BABIP, Chase rate (39.9%) and playing time.
  • There will be plenty of Peter Alonso (ADP: 28) discussions. Talks of cost, value, sophomore slump, etc.  Pure, raw, unadulterated power is the slogan. He tied for second on max exit velocity (118.3mph). Anyone really going to quibble over 40 HR, .250 AVG?
  • Jose Abreu (ADP: 78) stays at home. The quality of life is getting better in the ChiSox family. Sign me up for duplication of great counting stats.
  • The helium tank is nearly empty thanks to all the Matt Olson (ADP: 69) love. Can he still be a value even at that price point? If he can maintain the positives (crushing the ball) while improving versus lefties (.223 AVG), I’d want him everywhere too.
  • Some are acting like Trey Mancini* (ADP: 105) is the safety net of the position. He calls Camden home, but doesn't rely on it for success. The departure of Jonathan Villar will have some negative effect on the numbers. Multi-positional eligibility provides some extra coziness. Can you believe he’ll be 29 years old in 2020?

 

Coasting Down Main Street

  • Freddie Freeman (ADP: 16) is boringly successful. Barrel rate (12.5%) returned to norm from 2018 resulting in more homers. If you pick from the mid-to-latter half of the first round, have a plan in case he drifts to you in the second.
  • No one talks about Anthony Rizzo (ADP: 59). He gets on base, hits his homers, tallies the counting stats and even adds a few SB. It’s not sexy. “Not sexy” has value and might be what your roster needs at times.
  • It wouldn’t be surprising to find out there was a moment of pause before Josh Bell (ADP: 91) was selected in drafts. Yes, he had a forgettable second half that most will not forget; though he did walk more (14.2%) and strikeout less (17.3%). He’s priced right and there will be no discounts; he’s still a very good bat at first base.
  • Paul Goldschmidt (ADP: 66) doesn’t run anymore. Complaining about it doesn’t help you. You either want what he is selling or you don’t. Uncharacteristically, he struggled against four-seamers with a 10.3% Swinging Strike rate and a .232 AVG. He’s still very good.
  • Is Rhys Hoskins* (ADP: 114) cruising or stuck in the mud? The numbers and treatment suggest the latter, but I’d use that as an advantage. It is true his Mike Tyson Punch Out-type uppercut swing (24-degree launch angle) led to a league-leading fly ball rate (50.4%). He still has excellent plate discipline and maybe, just maybe, he can improve his endurance (second half) and lefty splits; both are a career .221 AVG. Wagon stays hitched.

 

Stuck In The Mud

  • Will Luke Voit (ADP: 193) be ready (abdominal surgery)? Sexy power in a wonderful lineup, but do the whiffs (15.8% Swing Strike) and poor contact (66%) keep him in the lineup? Enter Mike Ford (ADP: 571) Ooh-La-La. Voit may have poor plate discipline but he’s not alone down there, he walks shoulder to shoulder with Danny Santana (also 15.8% SwStr). Sorry, I forgot to mention that above, didn’t I?
  • Daniel Murphy (ADP: 224) will not get a second look by many as the “Coors effect” didn’t materialize. However, the 1.9% Brls/PA and a deteriorating exit velocity (86.3 MPH) aren’t scaring everyone away. Did the finger injury cause this? Did age cause this? It costs a 15th-round pick for batting average support and the possibility of 15-20 homers.
  • Ageists continue to turn a cold shoulder towards Edwin Encarnacion (ADP: 214). That's fine. To get 30 homers in the 14th round is a gift horse.
  • Christian Walker (ADP: 205) is supposed to be considered Goldschmidt Lite. He's a solid late option if I've avoided the position the entire draft.
  • C.J. Cron (ADP: 284) is the Rodney Dangerfield of baseball: no respect. He hit at least 25 homers the last two seasons and yet, he is looking for a job. Cron salivates at the idea of facing southpaws (.326 AVG). Full disclosure, he would prefer to avoid righties, batting .231 and .225 in 2018 and 2019, respectively. I’ll be taking a chance on him late in Draft & Hold leagues.
  • Eric Hosmer (ADP: 215). I know, I know. You don’t want to hear any talk about this guy. The lineup around him has improved this offseason and he hit the ball harder than ever (40.1% Hard hit rate) in 2019. However, he’s also putting a lot of divots in the ground (56% Ground-ball rate).
  • You want Nathaniel Lowe (ADP: 246). We want Nate Lowe. Everyone wants Nate Lowe, except for the ones that matter most, the Rays. He may bounce to the minors again as well as get squeezed in a platoon. Ultimately, his 91.3mph average exit velo with solid batting average should garner some playing time. Color me frustrated at the end of the year with this situation.

More 2020 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Al Horford9 hours ago

Back On The Injury Report
Derrick White9 hours ago

Off The Injury Report
TJ Friedl10 hours ago

Hits 10-Day Injured List
Aaron Gordon11 hours ago

Cleared To Face Phoenix
Michael Porter11 hours ago

Jr. Good To Go Wednesday
Nikola Jokic11 hours ago

Playing Against Phoenix
Jackson Chourio11 hours ago

Will Start In Right Field Friday
Jrue Holiday11 hours ago

Might Return On Thursday
Khris Middleton11 hours ago

Expected To Play On Thursday Night
Joel Embiid11 hours ago

To Return Soon?
Jamal Murray11 hours ago

Out Again On Wednesday
Rudy Gobert12 hours ago

Ready To Rock Against Pistons
LeBron James12 hours ago

Officially Active Against Memphis
Eduardo Rodriguez12 hours ago

Starts Throwing Program
Anthony Davis12 hours ago

Won't Play Against Grizzlies
Victor Wembanyama12 hours ago

Playing On Wednesday
Anthony Edwards12 hours ago

Will Play Against Detroit
Garrett Mitchell12 hours ago

Will Miss 6-8 Weeks
Aaron Nesmith12 hours ago

Back For Pacers Wednesday
Alec Burks12 hours ago

Remains Out On Wednesday
Chad Green12 hours ago

To Lead Closer Committee In Toronto?
Mitchell Robinson12 hours ago

Returns For Knicks Wednesday
Erik Swanson12 hours ago

Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson Officially Heading To Injured List
Kevin Gausman13 hours ago

To Make Season Debut Sunday Or Monday
Dejounte Murray13 hours ago

Upgraded To Available
John Konchar13 hours ago

Downgraded To Out
Vince Williams13 hours ago

Jr. Misses Another Game On Wednesday
Giannis Antetokounmpo13 hours ago

Expected To Face The Pelicans
Gleyber Torres14 hours ago

Will Bat Leadoff On Opening Day
Mark Hubbard14 hours ago

Coming Off A Career Performance
Davis Thompson14 hours ago

Looking To Pay Off A Stellar Run Of Ball-Striking
Max Scherzer14 hours ago

Making Solid Progress
Akshay Bhatia14 hours ago

Coming Into Houston With Confidence
Thorbjorn Olesen14 hours ago

Still Trying To Find Footing On U.S. Soil
Patrick Rodgers15 hours ago

Fighting Inconsistencies Heading Into Houston
Malik Nabers15 hours ago

Shines At Pro Day
Carolina Panthers15 hours ago

Jadeveon Clowney Signing Two-Year Deal With Panthers
Jordan Lawlar16 hours ago

To Have Thumb Surgery, Out A Couple Months
Wyndham Clark16 hours ago

Battling Back Injury Ahead of Houston Open
San Francisco 49ers17 hours ago

Talanoa Hufanga Expected To Return At Training Camp
MLB17 hours ago

Braves And Phillies Rained Out On Thursday
Jayden Daniels17 hours ago

Raiders To Meet With Jayden Daniels
MLB17 hours ago

Mets And Brewers To Be Postponed Thursday
Tank Bigsby17 hours ago

Jaguars Want Tank Bigsby More Involved
Will Smith17 hours ago

Inks 10-Year Extension With Dodgers
Josh Reynolds17 hours ago

Signs Two-Year Deal With Broncos
Jon Berti19 hours ago

Yankees Acquire Jon Berti From Marlins
Kodai Senga19 hours ago

Throws Wednesday
Matt McLain19 hours ago

Undergoes Shoulder Surgery
Doug Ghim19 hours ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Houston Open
PGA19 hours ago

Cameron Davis Seeking Consistency Ahead Of Houston Open
Thomas Detry19 hours ago

A Gamble At Houston Open
Ryan Fox19 hours ago

Lacks Upside Heading Into Houston Open
Andrew Novak19 hours ago

Will Be Chalk At Houston Open
Josh Doan21 hours ago

Scores Twice In His NHL Debut
Filip Forsberg21 hours ago

Makes History In Big Comeback Win
Jamie Benn21 hours ago

Scores In Fifth Consecutive Game
Sidney Crosby21 hours ago

Collects Three Points Versus Carolina
Artemi Panarin21 hours ago

Continues Scoring Tear With Three Assists
Joey Daccord21 hours ago

Shuts Out Ducks
Sahith Theegala22 hours ago

Showing Consistency This Season
Wyndham Clark22 hours ago

Working Toward Star Status
Scottie Scheffler23 hours ago

Heads To Houston At His Best
Colton Cowser23 hours ago

Makes Opening Day Roster
Sam Ryder23 hours ago

Putting The Lights Out Of Late
Joel Dahmen23 hours ago

All Systems Go For Joel Dahmen In Houston
Kurt Kitayama23 hours ago

Ready For Houston Debut
Ben Griffin23 hours ago

Finding Form Heading To Houston
Yariel Rodriguez1 day ago

Optioned To Triple-A
Taylor Moore1 day ago

Continues Made-Cut Streak Heading To Houston
Adam Svensson1 day ago

Hoping For Consistency In Houston
Taylor Montgomery1 day ago

Looks To Bounce Back In Houston
Jordan Montgomery1 day ago

Diamondbacks Agree On One-Year Deal
Amon-Ra St. Brown1 day ago

Discussing Extension With Lions
Jared Goff1 day ago

Lions Discussing New Deal
J.K. Dobbins1 day ago

Cleared For Football Activities
Los Angeles Rams1 day ago

Tre'Davious White To Join Rams
Jon Gray2 days ago

Dealing With Stiff Neck
PIT2 days ago

Sam Poulin Recalled From AHL
Jack Quinn2 days ago

Could Return Wednesday
Scott Mayfield2 days ago

Undergoes Season-Ending Surgery
TOR2 days ago

Mitch Marner Skates On His Own Tuesday
Trevor Zegras2 days ago

To Return Tuesday
Justus Annunen2 days ago

Inks Two-Year Extension
Nick Chubb2 days ago

Expected To Start Load Running Next Month
Justin Verlander2 days ago

Throws Successful Live BP Session
D'Andre Swift2 days ago

Bears View D'Andre Swift As Receiving Weapon
Cordarrelle Patterson2 days ago

Signing With Steelers
Sam Howell2 days ago

Seahawks Believe Sam Howell Can Be A Full-Time Starter
Tennessee Titans2 days ago

L'Jarius Sneed Agrees On Four-Year Contract With Titans
Dak Prescott2 days ago

No Indication A Deal Is Coming For Dak Prescott
Calvin Ridley2 days ago

To Have Big Role In Tennessee
Josh Jacobs2 days ago

To Be Used More In Passing Game
Brandon Saad2 days ago

Gets Another Goal In Monday's Loss
Logan Thompson2 days ago

Stretches Winning Streak To Three Games
Shea Theodore2 days ago

Maintains Good Scoring Form With An Assist
Brock Boeser2 days ago

Hits Goal No. 37
Cam Talbot2 days ago

Collects Fourth Consecutive Win
Anze Kopitar2 days ago

Records Fourth Straight Multi-Point Game
Oskar Sundqvist2 days ago

Suffers Knee Injury
Elias Lindholm2 days ago

Sits Out Monday
Jonathan Marchessault2 days ago

Bags Overtime Winner Monday
Pittsburgh Steelers2 days ago

Cameron Heyward Expected To Be Healthy For Training Camp
Zach Wilson2 days ago

Jets Could End Up Keeping Zach Wilson
Jarrett Stidham2 days ago

To Compete For Starting Job
Amanda Ribas3 days ago

Takes Decision Loss
Rose Namajunas3 days ago

Snaps Losing Streak
Edmen Shahbazyan3 days ago

Scores Vicious Comeback Knockout
AJ Dobson3 days ago

Knocked Out In The First Round At UFC Vegas 89
Fernando Padilla3 days ago

Gets Back On Track With Submission Win
Luis Pajuelo3 days ago

Submitted In UFC Debut
William Byron3 days ago

Dominates For Victory At COTA
Ty Gibbs3 days ago

Grabs Another Solid Finish At COTA
Chris Buescher3 days ago

Texas Native Chris Buescher Finishes Eighth At COTA
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Kyle Busch Confronts Christopher Bell Following A Top-10 Finish At COTA
Justin Haley3 days ago

Disqualified After Strong COTA Run
Martin Truex Jr3 days ago

. Rounds Out Top Ten At COTA
NASCAR3 days ago

A.J. Allmendinger Worms Way Up To Sixth At COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen3 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen Comes Down to Earth After Mediocre COTA Run
Ross Chastain3 days ago

Ran Well at COTA as Usual Despite Late-Race Fade
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Furious Charge Falls Just Short at COTA
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Scores Strong Finish of Fifth at COTA
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Finishes 16th at COTA After Lackluster Performance
Billy Quarantillo4 days ago

Suffers Submission Loss At UFC Vegas 89
Youssef Zalal4 days ago

Gets Submission Win In Return To The UFC
Cameron Saaiman4 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 89
Payton Talbott4 days ago

Scores KO Win At UFC Vegas 89
Justin Tafa4 days ago

Drops To .500 In The UFC
Karl Williams4 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Kyle Larson4 days ago

Is One Of The Optimal DFS Options For COTA
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Should Denny Hamlin Be Rostered For DFS Lineups At COTA?
Kaz Grala4 days ago

Is A Serviceable DFS Play For COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Will Start 12th In First COTA Cup Start
Todd Gilliland4 days ago

Is A Sneaky DFS Play With Upside For COTA
William Byron4 days ago

Is One Of The Top Favorites To Win At COTA
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Is A Comfortable DFS Play For COTA
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

the Favorite to Win at COTA
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Looking for First Career Win at COTA
Rose Namajunas6 days ago

Looks To Get Back In Win Column
Amanda Ribas6 days ago

Set For Main-Event Matchup
Edmen Shahbazyan6 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
AJ Dobson6 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 89
Fernando Padilla6 days ago

Seeking Victory In Third UFC Appearance
Luis Pajuelo6 days ago

Makes His UFC Debut
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Breece Hall - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part II

The NFL's offseason, including trades and free agency, can strongly impact a player's fantasy football value. This effect can be positive or negative. For this series, we're focusing on fantasy football players who have seen their fantasy value increase. This can occur via a player's direct movement, such as a trade or signing with a... Read More


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 1: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2024)

It's finally here: the UFL season is set to kick off with two games on Saturday, March 30 and two games on Sunday, March 31. Saturday's games will be broadcast on Fox Sports while Sunday's matchups will be on ESPN. The most anticipated Week 1 matchup pits the 2023 USFL champion Birmingham Stallions against the... Read More


Jared Goff - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Will the Lions Extend Jared Goff's Contract This Offseason? 2024 NFL Outlook

Jared Goff's career in Los Angeles didn't take off like many expected after his appearance in Super Bowl LIII, and he was traded to the Lions for Matthew Stafford. Goff's first season in the Motor City was terrible, but he has completely turned things around over the last two seasons. In 2022, he almost led... Read More


Kyle Pitts - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part I

Free agency symbolizes the start of a new NFL season. It's the first opportunity for NFL clubs to start addressing their weaknesses and considerably impacts how the upcoming season plays out. Just as free agency can improve or worsen a team's outlook, a player's fantasy football value is also impacted. Free agency marks the real... Read More


Malik Nabers - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, WR, NFL Draft Sleepers

Coach Knows Ball: Malik Nabers 2024 NFL Draft Film Breakdown of LSU WR

Welcome to Coach Knows Ball, an NFL Draft series analyzing the top prospects in the 2024 class. I'm a college football coach with nine years of NCAA experience and have been scouting NFL Draft prospects for over 15 years. This series will give a deep dive into the film of some of the top players... Read More


Avoid These Running Backs in 2024: Fantasy Football Outlook

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! The staff is already looking ahead to the 2024 season to help our readers get the jump on their competition. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones discusses five Running Backs that you should AVOID in 2024 fantasy football drafts. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller! Be sure to tune into RotoBaller Radio... Read More


Brock Bowers - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers, NCAA College Football, Prospects

Brock Bowers 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Georgia TE Be Selected?

Georgia tight end Brock Bowers was arguably the top tight end in college football over the past few years. Bowers was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 56 receptions for 882 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slightly slipped in 2022 as defenses started to game plan for the star tight end. Bowers had... Read More


Xavier Worthy 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Texas WR Be Selected?

Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy has been one of the top pass-catchers in college football over the past few years. The explosive receiver was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 62 receptions for 981 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slipped in 2022. Worthy had 60 receptions for 760 receiving yards and nine touchdowns... Read More


Blake Corum - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, RB, NFL Draft Sleepers

Blake Corum 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update - When Will the Michigan RB Be Selected?

Former Michigan running back Blake Corum is one of the most popular prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft class. The 23-year-old is fresh off a College Football National Championship victory and a 2023 campaign consisting of over 1,300 yards from scrimmage. However, given the devaluation of the running back position and Corum not being an... Read More


Brandon Aiyuk - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News

Will The 49ers Trade Brandon Aiyuk?

Brandon Aiyuk had a career year last season, finishing seventh in the league in receiving yards (1342), second in yards per catch (17.9), and catching seven touchdowns. For his efforts, he was named to the Second-team All-Pro. However, despite many expecting them to do so, the 49ers failed to win Super Bowl LVIII and now... Read More


Players to Avoid Drafting in 2024 Best Ball

In my first article of the offseason, I highlighted four players to target in 2024 Best Ball leagues. In this article, I'll turn my attention to players you should avoid drafting in Best Ball leagues this season. There are lots of reasons to avoid a player in Best Ball, whether it's a new role, a... Read More


2024 NFL Mock Draft Round 1 Predictions (Post-Free Agency Update) - Picks from All 32 Teams

We've now reached the point in the year where the disappointment of there not being any live football until the fall has subsided and hope has begun to renew for each fanbase heading into draft season. The first wave of NFL Free Agency has also passed and the rosters of all 32 teams have begun... Read More


Drake London - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 Top-200 Fantasy Football Rankings - Post Free Agency Edition

Fantasy football drafts are still five months away, but rankings and how fantasy managers value all of the players are constantly changing. With the better part of free agency in the rearview mirror and the best players on their new teams, we can re-evaluate our rankings to see which players have moved up and down.... Read More