RADIO
Another exciting week of football is in the books, and plenty of fantasy teams are already shaping up to be strong contenders. There are just as many others, however, that have been decimated by injuries and need to be shaken up before it's too late.
It is still too early in the season to have a great understanding of how players will perform down the line, but we can start to look at trends and narratives to predict what will happen in the near future. You can give yourself the best odds of making it into your league's fantasy playoffs by keeping up with these trends, staying active on the waiver wire, and, of course, making trades.
This week, I will again discuss two players I am hoping to acquire at a relative discount as well as two others that I am attempting to trade away after hot starts to the season. Before we dive in, though, let's take a look at how my suggestions from last week are holding up so far.
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Last Week's Recap
Following a zero-reception showing in Week 1, Tee Higgins exploded for eight receptions, 89 yards, and two touchdowns against the Baltimore Ravens. Although Joe Burrow still struggled mightily, Week 2 proved that Higgins' disappearing act was only a fluke. Hopefully, you managed to trade for Higgins before his big day as Burrow and Cincinnati should only improve as the season goes on.
I also suggested targeting Bills running back James Cook, who accumulated 159 total yards in Week 2 after encouraging utilization in the season opener. Teammates Damien Harris and Latavius Murray were unfortunately given goal-line work and scored touchdowns, but Cook offers a ton of upside as a fantasy starter in PPR leagues.
It may have been hard to convince yourself to trade away Tyler Allgeier after such a huge performance in Week 1, but you would have been happy to have him out of your starting lineup this past Sunday. Allgeier managed just 48 yards and was a non-factor in the passing game. Rookie Bijan Robinson looks incredible and should be expected to out-produce Allgeier in most competitive contests going forward.
I had been hurt too many times by Michael Thomas in the past to get my hopes up following a solid start to the year. Thomas did receive nine targets in Week 2 and mustered 55 yards on seven receptions but Chris Olave once again stole the show. The 30-year-old should be an interesting flex option for as long as he's healthy, but I'm still on board with trading him away to a fantasy manager with higher expectations.
Players to Target in Trades for Fantasy Football
A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles
If you watched Thursday night's showdown between the Eagles and Vikings, you probably saw A.J. Brown expressing frustration on the sideline at the start of the fourth quarter. Despite Philadelphia holding onto a 13-point lead, Brown was clearly upset at his lack of involvement in the contest while DeVonta Smith was putting on a show.
Like Brown, fantasy managers have been disappointed with the stud wideout's output through the first two weeks of the season. He did manage a top-24 finish in Week 1, but recorded just four receptions for 29 yards in Week 2 and has simply not been the elite fantasy receiver he was drafted to be.
Whether or not Brown's frustrations were justified, it's obvious that Jalen Hurts took them seriously. Brown had three targets at the conclusion of the third quarter but received three more in the fourth quarter alone. This doesn't include a 25-yard pass that was completed for a touchdown and unfortunately nullified by a holding penalty.
Additionally, many of Brown's opportunities through the first two weeks have come on Hurts' first reads and have generated a lot of air yards. This is a great sign of things to come for fantasy production.
First Read and Air Yards Shares through Week 2
[Not yet including MNF]
- A.J. Brown is good actually
- Mike Evans hasn't commanded targets like this in years
- Garrett Wilson dominating shares but stuck with Zach Wilson is so cruel
- Puka sure is with a lot of great players pic.twitter.com/cDemQUxwa5
— Ryan Heath (@QBLRyan) September 19, 2023
In Week 3, the squeaky wheel narrative could be in full effect against a Buccaneers defense that has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to opposing receivers so far this season. Although your league-mates aren't going to trade away Brown for little in return, he is probably going to be worth much more in the coming weeks. Don't miss out on the rare chance to add a potential top-five wideout to your fantasy roster.
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders
I typically try to avoid naming such highly-drafted players as trade targets, but Josh Jacobs is too obvious of a buy-low candidate to ignore. Jacobs was a true fantasy league-winner and led the NFL in rushing yards in 2022 but has averaged a horrendous 1.64 yards per carry so far this season.
Still, Jacobs is the RB33 in half-PPR scoring thanks to his production as a pass-catcher. This is undoubtedly a disappointing start considering Jacobs was drafted as a top-10 fantasy back, but still not quite as bad as it feels for those who selected him. Although concerns surrounding the Raiders' offense with Jimmy Garoppolo under center are valid, Jacobs' utilization has been that of a workhorse running back.
RBs with 70%+ Snaps in both games so far:
Christian McCaffrey
Josh Jacobs
Rachaad White
James Conner
Raheem Mostert
Alex Mattison— Alex Caruso (@AlexCaruso) September 18, 2023
Not only has Jacobs been on the field a ton, but as previously mentioned, he has been featured as a receiver. This was especially true in Week 2 when Las Vegas trailed the Buffalo Bills for the majority of the game and Jacobs earned six targets. He was effective with these looks and tallied 51 yards on five receptions.
What we saw on Sunday was likely Jacobs' floor. In games where the Raiders find themselves playing catch-up, he may not see a healthy amount of carries, but Jacobs will still be involved and thus won't completely bust for fantasy purposes. It's also important to note that Las Vegas has opened the season with two away matchups against solid Denver and Buffalo defenses.
Over the next five weeks, Jacobs will take on the Pittsburgh Steelers, Los Angeles Chargers, Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots, and Chicago Bears. Through two weeks, Pittsburgh has surrendered the most rushing yards in the league.
The Chargers haven't been particularly vulnerable against the run so far in 2023, but have allowed the 13th-most fantasy points to running backs and were consistently torn apart by the position last season. Meanwhile, Green Bay, New England, and Chicago all currently rank amongst the 10 most favorable matchups for running backs.
Just like Brown, Jacobs won't necessarily come cheap, but the opportunity to acquire him at a slight discount is presenting itself right now. Given his upcoming schedule, don't be surprised if Jacobs quickly turns back into the fantasy sensation we remember from last season.
Players to Trade Away for Fantasy Football
James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
With all of the injuries we've seen so early in the season, it's difficult to suggest trading away any healthy running backs with a guaranteed workload going forward. That being said, if you've lucked into adequate running back depth, James Conner is one to consider shopping if you can get a worthwhile return.
In Week 1, Conner posted five receptions and 70 total yards. This wasn't a bad fantasy showing by any means, but it pales in comparison to what he did in Week 2. Against the Giants, Conner ran for 106 yards and a touchdown as Arizona put up a much better fight than expected.
The only negative aspect of this performance was that Conner was targeted just once by Joshua Dobbs. Keep in mind that the Cardinals led for the majority of the game, paving the way for Conner's 23 carries.
It's still early, but we have seen New York's defense struggle to stop anything so far in 2023. Arizona's offense is unlikely to find similar success against tougher opponents, and in games that the Cardinals find themselves trailing early, Conner may have showings more similar to his performance in Week 1. This is specifically a concern for the next two weeks as Conner will have to face the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers. If the Bengals can return to form by Week 5, the Cardinals will struggle to keep up in that contest, as well.
Again, it's really hard to suggest trading a player with such a high usage rate but at some point, we have to question if Conner will be able to sustain it.
Players with at least 40% of team touches through two games:
Christian McCaffrey
Derrick Henry
James Conner
Josh Jacobs
Joe Mixon
Miles Sanders
Brian Robinson
Tony Pollard— TJ Hernandez (@TJHernandez) September 19, 2023
The 28-year-old has never played a full season in his career, and although injuries can happen to any running back on any given play, Arizona will be putting Conner at risk if it continues to give him so much volume. If you have Conner on your fantasy team, your decision to keep or trade him should be based on the rest of your roster, but his output is likely to decline as the Cardinals' schedule becomes challenging.
Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
This one hurts. I, like many fantasy gamers, was a firm believer that Garrett Wilson would ascend into fantasy superstardom this season. With the unfortunate injury to Aaron Rodgers in Week 1, I quickly changed my mind. Still, I didn't advise trading him away in last week's column because I figured that his value would have already plummeted.
In some regards, it definitely has, but a 68-yard touchdown in Week 2 has opened a window to sell Wilson for at least something of relevance. The second-year pro is talented enough to finish the 2023 campaign with a few highlights and big performances, but we have to accept the fact that he will not be a reliable fantasy option with Zach Wilson at the helm.
Zach Wilson is still trash.
Only 43% of Garrett Wilson's targets were catchable in Week 2, which is a league low for WR with 5+ targets.
Zach is 32nd in QB accuracy this season and is basically killing any hope of Garrett being a top-10 receiver this year.
— Cody Brown Bets (@CodyBrownBets) September 19, 2023
Wilson was obviously Zach Wilson's favorite target in Week 2, but that title holds close to no value when so few of his targets are even catchable. Holding out hope for New York to eventually pursue another quarterback this year seems like a pipe dream with head coach Robert Saleh constantly insisting that Zach Wilson is the guy.
I hope that I'm wrong, that Zach Wilson improves as the season progresses, and that Garrett Wilson becomes the top-10 fantasy wideout we all thought he could be. We have continuously seen such discouraging play from the young quarterback that it's difficult to imagine Wilson finishing as anything more than a fantasy WR3.
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