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Which fantasy football sophomore wide receivers will bust again? Joey Pollizze looks at three sophomore wide receivers fantasy managers should avoid in 2024.
Rookies and young wide receivers need time to develop. Going from college to the NFL is a big adjustment for many players, and wideouts need time to get accustomed to it. For some players, it takes just a couple of weeks. For others, it could take some time.
Justin Jefferson only needed two weeks before popping off with a seven-catch, 175-yard game back in Week 3 of his 2020 rookie campaign, while Nico Collins needed two full years until his break out. But some wide receivers just never live up to expectations and struggle on the field throughout their career.
So, in this article, let's look at three sophomore wide receivers who struggled to be fantasy-relevant in their first year and should be avoided in Year 2 because they are set to bust again.
Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.
Quentin Johnston - WR, Los Angeles Chargers
There was a lot of hope for Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston in fantasy in his first NFL season. He was drafted 21st overall by the Chargers and landed in a great situation with an elite quarterback (Justin Herbert) throwing passes to him. Then, his fantasy value increased when Mike Williams tore his ACL after just three games. However, Johnston failed to make the most of that opportunity.
Johnston totaled just 38 catches for 431 yards and two touchdowns in his rookie campaign. Most importantly, though, Johnston struggled in many departments in Year 1. He had a hard time separating against defenders, and drops remained a huge problem for him throughout the year. His 1.28 target separation ranked 85th in the league last year, while his win rate versus man coverage (20.7%) ranked 123rd overall.
Biggest issue with Quentin Johnston is that he can win on the outside…. But he can’t “finish” on the outside.
You saw that at TCU - most productive games were when he was deployed primarily in the slot.
— AngeloFF (@angelo_fantasy) July 29, 2024
With that poor rookie season past him, some fantasy managers might believe in the former TCU product in Year 2. Keenan Allen and Williams are both gone, meaning Johnston should see a nice target share in 2024. However, that might not even be the case, considering the Chargers wideout might start the season as the team's WR4. Joshua Palmer, Ladd McConkey, and DJ Chark are all ahead of him on Los Angeles' depth chart.
As a result, Johnston should not be drafted in most leagues this summer. He has struggled in training camp this year, and drops continue to haunt him. In what should be a run-heavy offense, it's best to avoid the second-year wideout altogether.
Jonathan Mingo - WR, Carolina Panthers
Some fantasy managers took a flier on Carolina Panthers wide receiver Jonathan Mingo in drafts last season. While most didn't expect him to be a consistent fantasy option throughout the year, the potential was there for him to post solid numbers. The Panthers selected him in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft, and the wideout could have eventually emerged as the team's top option in the passing game. Nonetheless, that never became the case.
Mingo took a backseat on offense in Year 1, totaling 43 catches for 418 yards. The former Mississippi wide receiver did show some potential in a couple of games last season, like when he caught six passes for 69 yards in Week 13 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. But overall, the Panthers wideout wasn't a major threat in 2023. His win rate versus man coverage (20.9%) also ranked 121st in the league.
Solid catch from Jonathan Mingo on a pass from Bryce Young. #KeepPounding pic.twitter.com/dhBIFiGhD7
— For Panthers Fans Only (Podcast) (@FPFO_Podcast) August 3, 2024
While quarterback play was a downfall for Mingo last year, it would be hard to imagine him becoming a consistent fantasy option in 2024. Bryce Young is still the quarterback, and the second-year wideout could find himself fighting for playing time with Diontae Johnson, Adam Thielen, and first-round rookie Xavier Legette all in front of him on the depth chart.
That's why Mingo should not be someone fantasy managers target in drafts this year. He struggled to gain separation in his rookie campaign, and the Panthers brought in Johnson this offseason -- which hurts his fantasy value in Year 2.
Marvin Mims Jr. - WR, Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. had a ton of hype surrounding him entering his rookie season. The speedy playmaker was drafted in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft and it appeared he would be the Broncos' WR3 to begin his career. Unfortunately, Mims never saw the playing time to be fantasy-relevant in Year 1. He played less than 50% of the team's offensive snaps in 14 of 16 games.
As a result, the former Oklahoma star caught just 22 passes for 377 yards and one touchdown. For some reason, head coach Sean Payton didn't allow Mims to showcase his potential -- even in a losing season. With Jerry Jeudy traded to the Cleveland Browns this offseason, the second-year wideout could be in store for more playing time in 2024. However, it might be hard to trust him in fantasy this year.
For starters, Bo Nix, Zach Wilson, or Jarrett Stidham will be his quarterback this season. That certainly doesn't help the wideout's fantasy value. On top of that, there's a chance that Mims will be Denver's WR3, even with Jeudy gone. The Broncos signed Josh Reynolds in free agency, and Payton could prioritize giving the veteran more playing time to start the year.
#Broncos HC Sean Payton on Marvin Mims’ camp:
“It’s been good, it’s been solid. Obviously, he’s taken a ton of reps with the receivers. He knows what we’re doing. He’s got good speed and awareness and then, obviously, we get that additional return role from him. But he’s doing… pic.twitter.com/1wwTBMjynb
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) August 3, 2024
Mims' speed could be a huge weapon for Denver's offense in 2024. But, given the team's quarterback play, the second-year wideout could be headed for another disappointing fantasy campaign.
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