X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Fantasy Football Rookie Spotlight: Audric Estimé

Corbin Young looks at the fantasy football outlook for Denver Broncos running back Audric Estimé in 2024. Where is Estimé worth drafting in redraft and dynasty leagues?

We've heard the phrase running backs don't matter before. That's evident in the real-life NFL Draft, with only 12 running backs going in the first round since 2014. That list includes Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Josh Jacobs, Melvin Gordon, Todd Gurley, Saquon Barkley, Sony Michel, Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott, Najee Harris, Bijan Robinson, and Jahmyr Gibbs. Four out of the 12 running backs were drafted before 2020.

When we filter by Day 1 and 2 picks, 49 running backs went in the first three rounds compared to 59 wide receivers since 2014. While it doesn't seem like a drastic difference, the NFL replaces running backs at a cheaper cost. That's surprising because five of the top 25 players in fantasy points per game were receivers in their rookie season. Rookie running backs led the list, accounting for 80 percent of the highest PPR/G in Year 1 among backs drafted in the first three rounds.

In 2024, the rookie receivers highlighted the class, with variations among the top running backs beyond Jonathon Brooks and Trey Benson. Several rookie running backs fell beyond their expected draft capital based on mock drafts. We'll examine one of the youngest running backs in the 2024 class that landed in a murky running back room.

 

College Production

The value of the running back position remains low, as one of the more highly touted running backs goes in the fifth round to the Broncos. Audric Estime is one of the youngest running backs in the class, posting a 40 percent Running Back Dominator as a junior with a career average of 36 percent. Estimé lacked the receiving profile with a five percent receiving yardage market share in consecutive seasons. 

Based on Estimé's production profile and draft capital, the top comparisons via the RotoViz Box Score Scout were Israel Abanikanda, Alexander Mattison, Wayne Gallman, and Benny Snell. While that's not inspiring, Estimé falls into the backup running back range with some upside. Estimé went about 50 picks behind his projected draft capital of pick 109, though it's within a round or so of other mock drafts.

He averaged the third-highest yards after contact per attempt (YAC/Att) at 4.27 behind Tyrone Tracy Jr. (4.44) and Jaylen Wright (4.35). Estimé showed average elusiveness and explosiveness, evidenced by his 30.6 percent missed tackles forced per attempt (MTF/Att) and 44.1 percent breakaway rush rate. Though he may not have the high-end straight-line speed, he rocks an Explosion Score in the 88th percentile. That aligns with the breakaway rush rate, ranking 14th in the 2024 running back class.

 

Rookie Year Situation

The Broncos invested heavily in offensive players with Bo Nix at quarterback in the first, Troy Franklin in the fourth, Estimé in the fifth, and Devaughn Vele in the seventh out of their seven total selections. That makes sense with Sean Payton as head coach since we're used to Payton's teams having high-scoring offenses. 

Javonte Williams is under contract through 2024, and an unrestricted free agent in 2025. They also have Samaje Perine through 2025, and the exciting sophomore back in Jaleel McLaughlin through 2026. The Broncos threw to their running backs at the second-highest rate with 8.8 targets per game behind the Jets at 9.1. For context, that's the third-most targets per game to the running back position over the past three seasons.

We'll see if that trend continues into 2024, but it seems likely because the Broncos averaged 8.1 targets per game (2022) to the running backs before Payton took over as head coach. It's unsurprising to see Payton's offenses targeting their running backs at a high rate throughout his coaching career. Nix threw 66.8 percent of his passes in the short areas of the field and behind the line of scrimmage at Oregon. That bodes well for the running backs, though Estimé lacked the receiving profile of Williams and McLaughlin.

 

Fantasy Football Outlook

It's a lukewarm landing spot for Estimé, especially if the running back usage remains the same. Last season, Williams averaged a 50 percent snap share, with a 51 percent rush share and a 12 percent target share. Perine mixed in on 34 percent of the snaps with a 12 percent target share, with McLaughlin mixing in for an 18 percent snap share and eight percent target share. 

It could be the Broncos being cautious with Williams returning from his injury last season, or how they prefer to deploy their backfield usage. Estimé is a young running back, with good size to break tackles and longer rushing attempts. He came in as RB9 on my spreadsheet but went off the real-life NFL Draft board as RB12 behind two questionable ones in Isaac Guerendo and Sione Vaki. Estimé is a talented running back worth targeting in the third round of rookie drafts, depending on your dynasty team's needs, and a late-round handcuff back in redraft leagues. 



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More NFL Rookie Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

John Gibson

Red Wings Acquire John Gibson
Matthew Knies

Inks Six-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
Aaron Judge

Blasts Two Homers
Claude Giroux

Signs One-Year Deal with Senators
Yordan Alvarez

has Chance to Return Next Weekend
Julius Randle

Signs Three-Year Extension
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Opts into Player Option
Luis Robert Jr.

Heads to Injured List
Gabriel Arias

Carted Off on Sunday
Bryce Harper

Faces Live Pitching
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Remains Out on Sunday
Utah Jazz

Bojan Bogdanovic Retiring From Basketball
Dorian Finney-Smith

Declines Player Option
Jaylin Williams

Signing Three-Year Extension
LeBron James

Accepts Player Option
Anfernee Simons

"a Possible Re-Trade Candidate"
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
NFL

NFL Won't Hold Supplemental Draft This Year
Damon Arnette

Getting Second Chance With Texans
Deommodore Lenoir

Arrested for Obstruction of Justice
Yordan Alvarez

Eyeing Return Before All-Star Break
Kevin Porter Jr.

Declining Player Option
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Quinn Priester

Fans 11 in One-Hit Gem
Garrett Temple

Returning to Toronto
Nicolas Batum

Declines Player Option
Spencer Schwellenbach

Dominant in Victory
Keon Johnson

Gets Team Option Picked Up
Rayan Rupert

Staying in Portland
Jonathan Kuminga

Recieves Qualifying Offer
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Expected to Make Second-Year Jump
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Out of Lineup Saturday
Sam Merrill

Sticking with Cavaliers
Davion Mitchell

Staying in Miami
Jalin Hyatt

Looking to Flip the Script in 2025
Garrett Mitchell

to Undergo Shoulder Surgery
José Ramírez

Jose Ramirez in Guardians Lineup on Saturday
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
Ty Dillon

Could Benefit from Kaulig Speed
Cody Ware

Rarely Enough Attrition at Atlanta for Cody Ware to Seriously Contend
Ryan Blaney

Is Always Strong at Atlanta
Joey Logano

Wins Pole, Looking for Third Atlanta Win
Isaac Okoro

on the Move to Chicago
Chase Burns

Slated to Make Next Start on Monday
Lonzo Ball

Traded to Cleveland
Dylan Sampson

Being Used as a Receiver
Carson Schwesinger

Figures to be in Full-Time Role in 2025
Cedric Tillman

Should Have Full-Time Role
Bryce Young

Looking More Comfortable, Showing More Intensity
Charlie Coyle

Blue Jackets Acquire Charlie Coyle and Miles Wood From Colorado
Jack Quinn

Signs Up for Two More Years with Sabres
Brandon Saad

Stays in Vegas on One-Year Deal
Trent Frederic

Inks Eight-Year Extension
Josh Naylor

Exits Friday's Contest Early with Neck Stiffness
Emil Heineman

Shipped to the Islanders
Noah Dobson

Traded to Montreal
John Tavares

Agrees to Four-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
Sam Bennett

Signs Eight-Year Extension with Panthers
NYI

Islanders Select Matthew Schaefer With No. 1 Pick in NHL Draft
José Berríos

Jose Berrios Tosses Seven Scoreless Innings in Fourth Win
Nick Martinez

Flirts With No-Hitter, Settles for Win
Gary Sánchez

Gary Sanchez Homers, Reaches Five Times in Onslaught
Trea Turner

Blasts Two Homers, Steals Base
Los Angeles Angels

Ron Washington to Remain on Medical Leave for Rest of the Season
Jeremy Peña

Imaging Negative on Jeremy Pena's Ribs on Friday
Spencer Steer

Slugs Three Home Runs in Win
Ace Bailey

to Report to Utah on Saturday
Justin Edwards

Sixers Agree on a New Contract
Naz Reid

Agrees to a New Contract with Minnesota
Aaron Rodgers

Roman Wilson Could Fit Nicely With Aaron Rodgers
Josh Simmons

on Schedule to Open the Year as a Starter
Micah Parsons

Contract Length an Issue for Cowboys, Micah Parsons
Denver Broncos

Broncos Unsure How Their Running Back Room Will Look
Russell Wilson

Not the Only Leader in Giants Clubhouse
Jae'Sean Tate

Rockets Want to Bring Back Jae'Sean Tate
Jihaad Campbell

to Begin at Inside Linebacker
Josh Conerly Jr.

to Play Right Tackle for Now
Tyleik Williams

Expected to Fill Big Role Right Away
Malaki Starks

Should Make an Immediate Impact
James Pearce Jr.

Impressing the Falcons
Jaxson Dart

has "Excellent" Spring
Donovan Jackson

has Inside Track on Starting Job
Charles Oliveira

Can Become A Two-Time Lightweight Champion
Ilia Topuria

A Favorite At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Can Become The New Flyweight Champion
Alexandre Pantoja

Set For Fourth Title Defense At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Renato Moicano

Returns At UFC 317
Beneil Dariush

An Underdog At UFC 317
Payton Talbott

Looks To Bounce Back
Felipe Lima

Set To Open Up UFC 317 Main Card
Daniil Tarasov

Panthers Bring in Daniil Tarasov
Frederick Gaudreau

Kraken Pick Up Frederick Gaudreau From Wild
SJ

Sharks Buying Out Marc-Edouard Vlasic
Jamie Benn

Stays in Dallas on One-Year Deal
Reilly Smith

Signs New One-Year Deal with Vegas
Michael Kesselring

Traded to Sabres
Josh Doan

Moves to Buffalo
JJ Peterka

Mammoth Acquire JJ Peterka
Evander Kane

Traded to Canucks
Michael Thorbjornsen

Returns in Detroit at Rocket Classic
Adam Hadwin

Could Struggle Over the Weekend in Detroit
Cam Davis

Hopes Detroit Magic Can Spark Turnaround
Matt Wallace

a Boom-or-Bust Option at Rocket Classic
Joel Dahmen

Not Cutting it Lately
Michael Kim

Searching for Spark at Rocket Classic
Rasmus Hojgaard

a High-Ceiling Play in Rocket Classic
Matt McCarty

a Wild Card Heading into Detroit
Emiliano Grillo

Rolling into the Summer Season
Rickie Fowler

Looking for More Magic at Rocket Classic
Wyndham Clark

Brings High Upside to Detroit Golf Club
Max Greyserman

Could Make Noise at Rocket Classic
Akshay Bhatia

a Strong Value Play at Rocket Classic
Eric Cole

Hoping for Better Times at Rocket Classic
Beau Hossler

Searching for Form at Rocket Classic
PGA

Byeong Hun An in Good Form Heading into Rocket Classic
Cameron Young

Looking For Redemption and Possible First Career Victory in Detroit
Collin Morikawa

is The Headliner This Week in Detroit For Good Reason
Si Woo Kim

Back in Competition After Last Week's Withdrawal
PGA

Alex Noren Finishes Tied For 30th at Travelers Championship
Kurt Kitayama

Misses The Cut at RBC Canadian Open
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF