The middle rounds of your fantasy draft make all the difference in your fantasy league.  It’s easy to hit on studs, but finding players that could potentially make or break your season in rounds 5-10 can decide whether you get that first round bye or miss the playoffs entirely.

Today I’ll be bringing up a few controversial players that you should be either targeting or avoiding.

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Middle Round Quarterbacks

Matthew Stafford - BOOM

Currently the 15th QB taken along with an ADP of 119, Stafford immediately sticks out as a great middle/late round value in fantasy leagues this year. After struggling through the early parts of last year, the Lions fired Joe Lombardi and promoted Jim Bob Cooter, a 31-year-old quarterback coach that was receiving huge praise prior to being promoted.

After the Lions' bye Week 9, Stafford went on to be the #4 QB in PPG for the remainder of the season in Cooter’s offense. While he likely won’t repeat his tremendous 19-2 TD/INT ratio, it gives us enough evidence to see that the Lions may have worked out the kinks in their passing attack.  For the record, Calvin Johnson was the #17 WR Weeks 10-16, but the expectation is that Marvin Jones/Golden Tate/Eric Ebron/Ameer Abdullah should be enough to keep Stafford in roughly top 10 QB territory.

Tom Brady - BUST

Tom Brady has an ADP of the #7 QB as well as 72nd overall. With a four-game suspension coming, you’re not going to be even using Brady until Week 5, where some teams are already falling out of contention. Of course some of these Brady owners will be using Jimmy Garoppolo, but with a relatively tough schedule the first four weeks, it’s tough to count on him being anything more than a very low-end QB2.

When Brady does return, he faces some very imposing defenses in the Jets (twice), Broncos, Seahawks, Bills and Rams. Brady was the #1 QB in PPG this past year, but after an unbelievable start, he dropped to 8th in PPG Weeks 8-16, and just 17th in the fantasy playoffs. With Brady only playing 12 games along with a rough schedule and his declining play as the year progressed, the value just isn’t there currently to be taking him ahead of guys like Carson Palmer, Blake Bortles, and Stafford.

Marcus Mariota - BOOM

If you’re looking to play matchups with two QB’s this year, Marcus Mariota may be one of the best to have. As this year's QB18 with an ADP of 139, you can grab Mariota in the double digit rounds and get someone who will likely score like a QB1 in quite a few games this year.

With a cupcake schedule Weeks 5-12 and a favorable matchup with the Jaguars in Week 16, he’s an ideal streamer or someone to sell high on come the middle of the season if you’re bit by the injury bug. His rushing stats (which Mike Mularkey has indicated will increase) should be a huge boon to his fantasy potential this year as long as he’s able to stay healthy. If I miss out on any of my targets, Mariota is a guy I’d love to pair with someone like Kirk Cousins.

 

Middle Round Running Backs

Carlos Hyde - BUST

Hyde’s being drafted as the RB17 currently, which given his level of talent makes perfect sense. Hyde’s got a fantastic combination of size and burst along with decent vision. However, his situation is abysmal. Playing for one of the NFL’s least inspiring offenses with a bust starting at quarterback and an  inability to catch passes, Hyde seems to risky to draft as a mid-level RB2.

His touchdown potential is capped by his offense's inability to get into the endzone, and his lack of big play ability (one rush over 20 yards last year) seriously limits  any upside in the fourth round. I’d rather wait on Jeremy Hill at 5.03 or Jonathan Stewart/Melvin Gordon at 6.04 who should all be as good if not better than Hyde this year. I just don’t recommend taking running backs in bad offenses this early unless they are the complete package.

Darren Sproles- PPR BOOM

I had to do a double take the first few times I looked for Sproles on the ADP charts, as he’s all the way down at RB47 in PPR drafts. While his play doesn’t seem to have declined, his playing time certainly did.  When he did get the ball, he had absolutely no chance to gain any yards after the catch. In what seemed like a perfect situation under Chip Kelly, everything went wrong.  

However, Frank Reich is here to save the day.  Under Reich, Danny Woodhead returned returned RB1 value this past year, and it’s fair to think that Sproles could have some huge games in a similar offense. Apparently Frank Reich has been talking up Sproles consistently in meetings, trying to find any way to get the guy the ball in space. If he’s able to get close to his production we saw in New Orleans, you have yourself a steal as a RB5 that could push for high end RB2 production in quite a few weeks.

Arian Foster - BUST

Foster’s value has absolutely exploded since the Dolphins played the Falcons last week, and for good reason.  When Foster was playing, the Dolphins offense was flat out better, and he looked to be the Foster of old despite his age and achilles tear this past year.  However, here's a few fun facts about Arian Foster: He has played 16 games just twice in his career.

He just suffered one of the worst injuries a running back can have. He is 30 years old and has consistently struggled with soft tissue injuries, which tend to linger longer and longer the older you get. His offensive line this year consists of three players that have one year or less of experience at their position (ff Pouncey returns). I guess those facts weren’t very fun.

There’s no denying that Foster could give you RB1 value when he plays, but if you think you can catch lightning in a bottle and run him all the way to the championship, you’re likely dreaming. With his ADP in the 5th round and likely rising, I’m not drafting someone who's more likely to be sitting on IR than playing in my championship game.

 

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