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Aidin Ebrahimi looks at one fantasy basketball breakout, bust, and lock from the Milwaukee Bucks for the 2023-24 NBA season.
Welcome to yet another edition of RotoBaller's Fantasy Basketball Breakouts, Busts, and Locks for the 2023-24 season. Today, we will be looking at the Milwaukee Bucks; a team that has around two more seasons to convince Giannis Antetokounmpo to stay.
Last season was filled with ups and downs. They had a 9-0 start, but injuries and inconsistencies led to them sitting at the fourth seed by mid-January. They went on a 15-game winning streak and finished the season as the first seed, but were utterly humiliated by the Heat in the playoffs just like what happened in 2020. They traded for Damian Lillard in the offseason in hopes of running it back one more time.
In this article, we will highlight the breakout, bust, and lock picks for the 2023-2024 Bucks.
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Milwaukee Bucks Fantasy Breakout - Pat Connaughton
The Bucks have a pretty interesting decision to make for their fifth starter. We all know Giannis, Lillard, Khris Middleton, and Brook Lopez will be starting, but the fifth spot is wide open. The battle for that spot is primarily being fought between Connaughton, Malik Beasley, and MarJon Beauchamp.
HC Adrian Griffin has already been impressed with Beasley; however, he hasn't had a positive Plus/Minus Net Per 100 Possessions since he was a rookie and his supposedly "good shooting" isn't that good. He averaged a 53.1% True Shooting percentage last season, four percent below the league average for SGs (57.1%). He is also a pretty poor defender, which is why he got almost no minutes during the Lakers' playoff run. Even if he does start initially, he will likely get dropped shortly afterward. Beauchamp, on the other hand, is a very raw basketball player.
He has the tools to be a good defender and is a good athlete, but had a TS% of 51.3% last season and averaged a Plus/Minus Net Per 100 Possessions of -11.2. He has been compared to a rookie Khris Middleton in Detroit, but not even Middleton was that raw as a rookie. Rookie Middleton had superior advanced stats and efficiency compared to rookie Beauchamp.
It's clear that he needs a year or two to contribute, so for now, the best option will be Pat Connaughton. Connaughton has been around this core for five seasons and played three seasons with Damian Lillard, whom he has formed a friendship with. "It’s not just about basketball with [Lillard]," said Connaughton in 2019. "We’ve developed a friendship."
Connaughton isn't a star defensive presence by any means, but he is the most prepared to contribute on both sides of the ball out of the three. Considering that he had a down year in 2022-23, he has a very low ADP. Now, he could bounce back and give you 12 to 13 points on great shooting (62% TS percentage in 2021-22), which is great value considering his draft stock right now.
Milwaukee Bucks Fantasy Bust - Khris Middleton
Is Khris Middleton "washed"? He had a very disappointing regular season due to injuries but put up great numbers without Giannis in the playoffs. Even if he was completely healthy, I would expect his numbers to go down while playing with Damian Lillard. Lillard's usage percentage is way higher than Middleton's ex-backcourt partner Jrue Holiday.
Lillard averaged a usage percentage of 33.8% last season, which was fifth in the NBA. Even though his usage will go down with Giannis, he averaged a usage percentage of 26.9% in his last season with LaMarcus Aldridge, and that was when he was just 24. Holiday averaged a usage percentage of 23.6% in his time with the Bucks.
We could expect a usage percentage of around 29 to 30%, which could only mean bad things for Middleton's production. And again, we're assuming that he stays healthy, which is a pretty bold assumption for someone who has had surgery for two summers in a row now (left wrist in 2022 and right knee in 2023).
For his current ADP, you can get a bunch of guys who are not only healthy but have a shot at being their team's first option. For his ADP, you'll have many options like Anfernee Simons, who is now the top dog on the Blazers after replacing Lillard, Franz Wagner, who has been listed by NBA execs as the top breakout candidate this season, and other sleeper players like Jalen Williams, Keegan Murray, and Devin Vassell.
Milwaukee Bucks Fantasy Lock - Damian Lillard
Dame or Giannis? Well, Giannis certainly has the advantage in points leagues, but in category leagues, Giannis is a top-four player if you punt FTs and TOs, but you'd have to do so much more to maximize his potential. You have to find shooters, some passers, and even stock (steals + blocks) guys since Giannis has quietly declined in that category.
So, why not take a player where you don’t have to punt two categories? Damian Lillard will still keep on scoring, will have a field day with assists, and will shoot more efficiently than ever before in this Bucks offense. Even in points leagues, he's a very good option. Apart from a fluky injury in 2021-22, he has also been very durable.
Had he not been shut down by a tanking Blazers team last season, he would have finished with 68 games. If you take that number and add it up to his other seasons excluding 2021-22, you'll get 750 games out of 802, which is an astounding 93.5% of his games. It equates to almost 77 games played in an 82-game season.
No other guard with a high ADP is that durable. Luka Doncic has played in 84% of his games, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has played in 80%, Tyrese Haliburton has played in 81%, while the likes of Stephen Curry and LaMelo Ball have dealt with multiple long-term injuries.
So many people this year are paying attention to a player's availability because as they say "availability is the best ability", and no top PG in the NBA has been as available for as long as Damian Lillard. I have vouched for the other typically injured NBA stars in my last few articles in this series, but even I have to admit that Lillard's durability is incredible and makes him worth drafting if you're drafting late in the first round.
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